tim wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:34 pm
Seeing as how China has been stock piling nuclear weapons in their underground Great Wall, I believe that the Chinese attack on the U.S. will be a massive nuclear missile attack where military targets and American cities are all fired upon at the same time. Not all missiles will reach their targets but enough will with the motivation being to knock the U.S. out of the war before the U.S. can retaliate.
China is not going to make the mistake Japan did at Pearl Harbor and they have clearly said so.
https://www.georgetown.edu/news/gu-stud ... r-tunnels/
I do not disagree that the Chinese will probably start the next war with nuclear weapons. BUT, I believe that they will be somewhat restrained in their use.
My reasoning for this is that the massive use of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons would turn the world into a radioactive wasteland that nobody can use. Nobody anywhere, whether they were the target of those weapons or not.
It would not take too many nuclear detonations to create a scenario similar to what killed off the dinosaurs (and most other life). Studies have shown that the point of no return is somewhere around 100 detonations. This would put enough dust/debris into the atmosphere to replicate the dino killing asteroid impact. No crops, no food, DRAMATIC weather changes (as in blizzards in August in the tropics). Plus whatever radio-active effects are added to this by the "poisoning" of the nukes with cobalt and things like that (to enhance the radioactivity after effects).
While the CCP may be stupid, they are not insane, and are certainly not suicidal. Targeting all the metro areas of US and Japan (which would lead to retaliatory strikes) would definitely put the world over the "tolerable limit" for nuke detonations, and would render the planet unable to sustain life for centuries (if not longer).
What I see them doing are using a limited number of nukes, primarily against US and Allied Naval assets at sea (sea-bursts will result in less dust/debris than overland bursts), and against selected high priority military targets. For example, the ballistic missile submarine bases in Washington state (about 15 miles west of Seattle) and Georgia (about 30 miles north of Jacksonville FL). They could also go after Norfolk and possibly San Diego, although either of these might be seen as too close to urban areas that could trigger a more massive than desired retaliatory response.
The would probably go after bases that the US would use to respond to a Taiwan intervention, such as Guam and Okinawa. Possibly other strategic military sites as well, such as US missile silo bases (Montana) and selected Airbases (those outside of major metro areas).
I believe that they will warn a weak US president right before doing so, and threaten massive response if he/she responds with nukes to their targeting of "solely military targets" with their nukes. And, given the current administration, they would probably cave to this and not respond.
The war would then follow mostly conventional lines, though I believe nukes will still get used in naval combat.