Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

[Bob Butler]

Your rhetoric is the type that got Trump shot. I'm sure you're disappointed he is still alive. You would likely gladly support the genocide of all his supporters. Demented. Makes me wonder what happened to you when you were a kid.

No, I would rather see Trump voted down in November than a martyr created through assassination. I do not support genocide. It is you that are misreading my posts badly.

When I was a kid I was a badly bullied loner. A recent comment by a high school classmate of the Trump shooter indicated he was the same. We took very different paths, my becoming an engineer that among other things supported all three aspects of the nuclear triad. He died young.

One Blue editorial written since the shooting suggests that political violence is never constructive. I would beg to differ if the US Revolution, Civil War and World War II are considered political violence. What is a crisis? In Lincoln's poetic terms, every four score and seven years there is is a new birth of freedom. In Strauss and Howe's more historical terms, every generation there is a time when the worst flaws of a culture are removed and new values introduced. During the Industrial Age, this usually implied a major war that changed the culture. I am hoping that in the Information Age democracy has developed far enough to be able to alter the culture without the major violence.

We are becoming a more secular culture. No more imposing European religious doctrine on a more diverse secular population. We are becoming less bigoted. As in prior crises, prejudice against minorities are being reduced. One can wish cultural progress might not occur. One can be enamored of what others see as flaws to be fixed. Cops no longer murdering. The insane forbidden weapons of war. Pandemics being fought. Still, it is hard to fight progress.

Resistance is futile. You shall be assimilated.

[Clarkmod]

Bob,

I want to call your attention to this series of posts.

The basic problem is too many people considering white supremacy to be normal and good.

How many people? What is your source? Where are these people?

Religious fanatics attempting to spread their doctrine through government...In general Republicans, though much has stopped of late, and relatively few participated in the worst.

You did not answer my questions either. You said there are too many white supremacists and wouldn’t give a number.

Even you should be able to figure that out. From my perspective, one is too many white supremacists.

I don't think anything more needs to be said.

[Bob Butler]

I don't think anything more needs to be said.

I do. While a moderator can reasonably prevent bad language and stop personal attacks, they should not use censorship to advocate their political opinions or skew their moderator duties in favor of those whose political opinions they agree with, This you have repeatedly done as the above indicates. Is this a propaganda site? Are you capable of separating your moderator duties from your political opinions?

[Clarkmod]

I don't think anything more needs to be said.

I do. While a moderator can reasonably prevent bad language and stop personal attacks, they should not use censorship to advocate their political opinions or skew their moderator duties in favor of those whose political opinions they agree with, This you have repeatedly done as the above indicates. Is this a propaganda site? Are you capable of separating your moderator duties from your political opinions?

The intent of your posts of June 24 is clear. As stated previously, I will no longer roll in the weeds with you. Last warning.

[Bob Butler]

The main stream media occasionally makes a big deal about Earth One and Earth Two. There are two sets of basic values, progressive and conservative. You would hope that facts would allow individuals to choose the right one. Alas, value sets determine what facts are considered important. Thus, values determine facts.

Take the abortion question. Are one’s religious values more important, or your political ones? Is the government supposed to enforce religious doctrines? Is the majority supposed to rule? Can one set of prerogatives outweigh another in someone’s mind.

Guns could create a common principle. People are supposed to be protected. In the founding time, with hostile frigates off the coast, hostile natives in the woods and government protective forces few and far between, it was obvious that individuals had the right to protect themselves. At this point, weapons have become more potent and there are enough government police forces that it seems prudent to let them do their job. Do we want weapons of war in the hands of the insane? One can see both arguments. Do we support one argument in order to protect the other? Or is there away we can respect both?

Or some people pick on various minorities. You get official studies showing immigrants more law abiding than citizens, and those who make up conspiracy theories to throw away the studies. Some will believe what they have always believed.

Values determine facts? What should be done about it?

[Bob Butler]

Navigator, Romney would be a horrible candidate and would get destroyed. The regular everyday working class can't stand him. Would Romney be better than Harris or Newsome? The answer to that is yes, but that is an insanely low bar to beat.

The vast majority of people don't want either extreme, which is now Trump / Harris. They want a "middle road", be it a Romney or a Manchin. Either would win in a landslide versus Trump or Harris.

I'm with Thinker on this. RFK Jr as an independent apparently just eats a few Trump votes. The other Democratic possibilities want the VP pick, so it is no surprise that she is getting endorsements. She has pretty much got the nomination wrapped up.

[Bob Butler]

From a liberal perspective, Democrats believe serving the people gets votes, while Republicans believe it gets them financial contributions. If the former approach is corrupt, I’m with it anyway. Infrastructure, computer chips, voting rights… Kitchen table issues, hurrah. The collect money approach worked in the unravelling, less so now. I can respect the opinion that our current system of politics leaves itself way open to corruption by the rich. I suspect that will be a focus of the next awakening and crisis. Still, getting behind a rich guy working transactional deals with other rich guys won't do it.

Trump was left his money by his father. He used criminal methods through his entire career, financially, in dealing with women and with minorities. He lost his charity, his university, his company, and managed somehow to even bankrupt his casino. He seems to specialize in bankruptcy. If he gathered attention by involving himself in politics (mistake) the crimes were real: insurrection, fake electors, stolen documents, rape, defamation, fraud… By contrast, the Republican efforts to find something to pursue against Biden seem futile.

Restating the reason some support him would not be overly polite. Still, if the Republicans are going anywhere in the immediate future, they need the MAGA vote. While Trump leads MAGA, another Republican candidate isn’t going to happen. Between age and legal troubles, I can’t see Trump holding on to MAGA for 2028. Sarah Palin was the only one behind a similar movement, the Tea Party. Can there be only one at any given time? Thus, the usual conservative collapse at the end of a S&H crisis.

The conservative movement will have to reinvent itself. It always has. There will always be some that want to cling to what has always been.

[Bob Butler]

This morning, I woke up with an old chorus repeating through my head, with slightly different lyrics. Is that all there is… to a crisis? I guess both sides are trying to be optimistic domestically. Still, if the purpose of a crisis is to remove a culture’s flaws…

We have people trying to assert religious doctrine in an increasingly secular culture. We have people rejecting minorities in an increasingly diverse culture. We have people embracing guns in a time where spree shooters are wielding weapons of war.

Is that all there is?
Is that all there is?
If that's all there is my friend
Then let's keep dancing
Let's break out the booze and have a ball
If that's all there is.

[Bob Butler]

Flaws are constantly being removed. It's called evolution. And we've evolved so rapidly in such a short period of time that a reversion to the mean is inevitable. It means going backwards to traditional values and consolidation of gains. Because humans can only evolve as fast as biology allows and it's already well beyond our ability to cope. Talking about space and aliens is just a coping mechanism for those who think we'll have constant progress without necessary retracement and consolidation of gains. Before ever greater progress it's absolutely necessary and is the lessons learned from history and science.

We are talking about the evolution of cultures more than biological change. The S&H generational rhythms suggest how this change takes place. A crisis period forces the maximum progressive change. S&H suggest a conservative regression and reaction somewhat later, as when the king was restored after Cromwell or the KKK manifested after the Civil War. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again, but you seem to have the timing a bit off.

But this is a crisis, a progressive time in the end. This is a time when new values manifest. I agree there is a rhythm to change. I expect a regression and long pause before another such time occurs, maybe four score and seven years before the next new birth of freedom. This is just a period when those who resist change have to grin and bear it.

I don’t anticipate aliens getting involved in the process, or if they do how they would influence things. I do anticipate wealth from space, primarily from asteroid mining. I could see more wealth focused on states like Florida and Texas just based on their location. Seeing that wealth shared with other states might be more likely to induce succession than anything else. I could also see companies such as Spacex locating on the equator, in part to make launches more efficiently, in part to evade US taxes and regulations. Still, that is a thing for the next cycle.

[Clarkmod]

Flaws are constantly being removed. It's called evolution. And we've evolved so rapidly in such a short period of time that a reversion to the mean is inevitable. It means going backwards to traditional values and consolidation of gains. Because humans can only evolve as fast as biology allows and it's already well beyond our ability to cope. Talking about space and aliens is just a coping mechanism for those who think we'll have constant progress without necessary retracement and consolidation of gains. Before ever greater progress it's absolutely necessary and is the lessons learned from history and science.

We are talking about the evolution of cultures more than biological change. The S&H generational rhythms suggest how this change takes place. A crisis period forces the maximum progressive change. S&H suggest a conservative regression and reaction somewhat later, as when the king was restored after Cromwell or the KKK manifested after the Civil War. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again, but you seem to have the timing a bit off.

But this is a crisis, a progressive time in the end. This is a time when new values manifest. I agree there is a rhythm to change. I expect a regression and long pause before another such time occurs, maybe four score and seven years before the next new birth of freedom. This is just a period when those who resist change have to grin and bear it.

I don’t anticipate aliens getting involved in the process, or if they do how they would influence things. I do anticipate wealth from space, primarily from asteroid mining. I could see more wealth focused on states like Florida and Texas just based on their location. Seeing that wealth shared with other states might be more likely to induce succession than anything else. I could also see companies such as Spacex locating on the equator, in part to make launches more efficiently, in part to evade US taxes and regulations. Still, that is a thing for the next cycle.

This is what Strauss and Howe say:

Think of all the Boomers, 13ers, and Millennials you know (or know
about) today. Picture them ten to thirty years older, pursuing the
archetypal paths of ancestral generations during prior Fourth Turnings.
This will be America's next Crisis constellation, capable of propelling
America into and through the next great gate in history.

Boomers Entering Elderhood: Gray Champions

Boomer evangelicals will join the search for a spiritual old age. Elder
conservative Christians will sharpen their sermonizings about good and
evil, implant God and prayer in public life, and demand more divine
order in civic ritual. They will view as sacrilegious many of the
Unraveling era's new pro-choice life-cycle laws, from genetically
engineered births to nontraditional marriages to assisted suicides. They
will desecularize birth, marriage, and death to reauthenticate the core
transitions of human life.

Boomer-led niche cultures will cease much of their Unraveling-era
quarreling and find new communitarian ground. Ethnocentrics will
reveal new civic virtue in racial essences. The Fatherhood movement
will become patriarchal (and feminism matriarchal), demanding and
enforcing family and community standards. Active members of these
cadres will comprise just a small minority of old Boomers, but like the
hippies and yuppies of the Second and Third Turnings they will
command the attention and set the tone for the Fourth. Those who
dislike them—and there will be many—will be unable to avoid seeing
and hearing their message.

Emerging in this Crisis climax will be a great entropy reversal, that
miracle of human history in which trust is reborn. Through the Fourth
Turning, the old order will die, but only after having produced the seed
containing the new civic order within it. In the moment of maximum
danger, that seed will implant, and a new social contract will take root.
For a brief time, the American firmament will be malleable in ways that
would stagger the today's Un-raveling-era mindset. “Everything is new
and yielding,” enthused Benjamin Rush to his friends at the climax of the
American Revolution. So will everything be again.

The prospect for great civic achievement—or disintegration—will be
high. New secessionist movements could spring from nowhere and
achieve their ends with surprising speed. Even if the nation stays
together, its geography could be fundamentally changed, its party
structure altered, its Constitution and Bill of Rights amended beyond
recognition. History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed
confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is
confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war—
class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or
superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war,
fought until the losing side has been rendered nil—its will broken,
territory taken, and leaders captured. And if there is total war, it is likely
that the most destructive weapons available will be deployed.

With or without war, American society will be transformed into
something different. The emergent society may be something better, a
nation that sustains its Framers' visions with a robust new pride. Or it
may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time
of glory or ruin.

The Crisis resolution will establish the political, economic, and social
institutions with which our children and heirs will live for decades
thereafter. Fresh from the press of history, the new civic order will
rigidify around all the new authorities, rules, boundaries, treaties,
empires, and alliances. The Crisis climax will recede into the public
memory—a heart-pounding memory to all who will recall it personally,
a pivot point for those born in its aftermath, the stuff of myth and legend
for later generations. And, for better or worse, everyone who survives
will be left to live with the outcome.

What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning?

History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly
wrong—the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable
plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not
assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the
irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just
temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Since Vietnam,
many Americans suppose they know what it means to lose a war. Losing
in the next Fourth Turning, however, could mean something
incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our
national innocence—and perhaps even our nation—might never recover.
As many Americans know from their own ancestral backgrounds, history
provides numerous examples of societies that have been wiped off the
map, ground into submission, or beaten so badly they revert to
barbarism.

The outcome of the next Fourth Turning will determine the enduring
reputation of the Unraveling era in which we now live. In the 1930s, the
1920s were blamed for everything that had gone wrong. After World
War II was won, however, Americans began to look back more fondly on
those roaring good times. Imagine how the 1920s would have looked in
1950 had the Great Depression never lifted, the Axis prevailed, or both.
Now imagine the pre-Crisis 1990s—all its O. J. Simpsons and Michigan
militias, its Beavises and Buttheads and Crips and Bloods, its low voter
turnouts and anguish over tiny cuts in Medicare's growth—all from the
vantage point of America in the year 2030.

If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then
has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when
we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices. If the
Fourth Turning goes well, however, memories of the Unraveling will be
laced with nostalgic fun. More important, a good ending will probably
mean that America has taken individual freedoms that now seem socially
corrosive and embedded them constructively in a new social order. After
the next Fourth Turning has solved the historical problems of our
saeculum, many of today's Unraveling-era social problems will be
recognizable as worsening symptoms of what had to be—and was—
fixed.

In every saeculum, the Awakening gives birth to a variety of
individual and social ideals that are mutually incompatible within the
framework of the old institutional order. In the Unraveling, the tension
between wants and shoulds widens, sours, and polarizes. In the Crisis, a
new social contract reconciles these competing principles on a new and
potentially higher level of civilization. In the following High, this
contract provides the secure platform on which a new social
infrastructure can be hoisted. In the parlance of its time, each of the past
three Crises resolved aggravating values struggles that had been building
up over the prior saeculum. The American Revolution resolved the
eighteenth-century struggle between commerce and citizenship. The
Civil War resolved the early-nineteenth-century struggle between liberty
and equality. The New Deal resolved the industrial-era struggle between
capitalism and socialism.

What present-day tensions will the next Fourth Turning resolve? Most
likely, they will be Culture Wars updates of the perennial struggle
between the individual and the collective—with new labels dating back
to our recent Consciousness Revolution. This time, the individual ideal
goes under the rubric of “choice”: from marketplace choice to lifestyle
choice; from choice about manners, appearance, or association to the
choice of expression and entertainment. The social ideal goes under the
rubric of “community” and points to where all of the various choices
must be curtailed if we wish to preserve strong families, secure borders,
rising living standards, a healthy environment, and all the other building
blocks of a sustainable civilization.

In today's Unraveling, with its mood of pessimism, a reconciliation
between these opposing principles seems (and probably is) impossible.
But come the Fourth Turning, in the white heat of society's ekpyrosis and
rebirth, a grand solution may suddenly snap into place. Once a new
social contract is written and a new civic order established, it could
eradicate (or, at least, narrow) many of the today's seemingly insoluble
contradictions—for example, between no-fault divorce and dependable
families, poverty assistance and the work ethic, or gun control and
personal defense.