Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

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John
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Re: Dictators...

Post by John »

** 20-Apr-2022 World View: Rise of the Nazis: Dictators at War: The Home Front
Bob Butler wrote:
Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:47 pm
> Public TV put out a very blue special focused on dictators,
> primarily WW II's Hitler and Stalin. I might be summarized as
> follows. They collect yes men. These care more about getting
> close to the leader in the short term, less on keeping their
> promises in the long term. The focus is on all or nothing,
> claiming all if they cannot achieve it, and lying if that will win
> power. If they cannot achieve the glorious victory, they will
> perpetuate misery on those who fail. They distrust their
> generals. The one place they gave Stalin credit over Hitler was
> that Stalin reluctantly listened to Zhukov even as he saw him as a
> threat and at times exiled him. Hitler got rid of his best
> professionals, anyone who cared to contradict his victory filled
> dreams. They also emphasized that dictators care not at all for
> human life, especially if their victory is denied.

> The special give one the impression of how democracies beat
> dictatorships, but you can't help but apply the principles to
> Putin. I suspect this was the whole idea.
Apparently that episode of Rise of the Nazis is going to be repeated
on WGBH on Tue 4/26 at 9 pm, and on Wed 4/27 at 4 am.

I agree that that description applies to Putin. That description of
fanatacism also applies to Xi Jinping and, to a slightly lesser
extent, to Biden.

spottybrowncow
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by spottybrowncow »

Bob, what do you mean when you call the special "blue?"

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Bob Butler
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Mabe not blue...

Post by Bob Butler »

Perhaps blue is the wrong word. At the same time, the feeling of the piece requires that you look at it a little skeptically. I see public television and Fox News as having their own worldviews, their own slants on things. While you listen to what either says, at the same time you have to remember who it is saying it and seek a second opinion slanted the other way. It is just reflex to be more than a little skeptical of certain sources.

This certainly isn’t 43 and 45 taking on 44 and 46. Red and blue classically are used to describe a domestic difference. I habitually grumbled when anybody compared the leaders of World War II with todays leaders. It was almost always lazy thinking. People would rather make a bad analogy than really dig into the current issues. But the “Rise of the Nazis” show made me take such a comparison seriously.

For decades I have been pushing how war is obsolete. Nukes, proxy war, insurgent war and sanctions are the dominant tools. NATO is trying to make these work. Putin is trying to ignore the obsolescence. He is trying to gain power through conquest. This is not classic red blue. But if NATO is using the tools I have often quoted, I can only wish them luck.

But today’s Russia may really be similar to 1940s Germany and Japan. Hitler made a catastrophic mess rather than cut his losses. It took nukes and Russia invading to make Tojo finally yield. If Putin really has the same dictator mentality, the possible use of nukes is not a deterrent to war. If at first you don’t succeed, if you can’t win, make sure nobody does. So what if a few billion die? It isn’t like morality is a big part of the dictator mindset.

But in short, take the blue descriptor with much salt.

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Re: Mabe not blue...

Post by John »

** 20-Apr-2022 World View: War is obsolete
Bob Butler wrote:
Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:12 pm
> For decades I have been pushing how war is obsolete.
You should check out the history of the Kellogg-Briand pact.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-kellogg-b ... ct-4151106

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Bob Butler
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Not whether war is obsolete, but belief it is obsolete...

Post by Bob Butler »

The question is not whether war is obsolete. It certainly isn’t profitable. Napoleon died in exile. Hitler of suicide. Japan’s war culture failed the country. Every S&H crisis ends up teaching everyone no more crisis wars, as long as the previous one is in living memory. I don’t see how Putin’s attempt will turn out different.

The problem is that autocratic dictators won’t learn. They keep walking a road that leads to disaster.

There is also a question of wars to end all wars, and not just the Great War. Ending war is a justification for war. Vietnam, anyone? Must Stop Communism. Is the major lesson from World War II containment? One has to be strong for war to be stupid? NATO was built around that theory. Alas, as long as countries let themselves be run by people like Putin who just don’t learn, they will go the way of Napoleon and Hitler. A good portion of the people die too.

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Bob Butler
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A little late?

Post by Bob Butler »

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/politics ... index.html
Prominent conservatives issue report rebutting Trump election claims

(CNN)A group of conservatives, including prominent lawyers and retired federal judges, issued a 72-page report on Thursday categorically rebutting each of the claims made in court by former President Donald Trump and his supporters over the 2020 election results.

The report, "LOST, NOT STOLEN: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election," looked at more than 60 court cases Trump and his supporters filed and lost in six key battleground states. It reached the "unequivocal" conclusion that the former Republican president's claims were unsupportable -- which Trump's own Department of Homeland Security as well as election officials nationwide debunked days after the 2020 election.
A little late? This report should have been issued a few weeks after the election?

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Bob Butler
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China's coming economic collapse?

Post by Bob Butler »

I’ve been reading enough stuff about China lately on YouTube that they keep recommending more stuff. Lately, there have been a number of articles on how China is heading for big financial problems. In a true capitalist system, you don’t build factories unless you can use them to build something profitable. You don’t build more housing than you have people to live in it, or more reservoirs than provide water you actually need. It seems, however, that under the half communist half capitalist system China has recently been running under, it is seemingly prudent for local governments to overproduce to get funds provided by the central government for producing. The result is empty ‘ghost’ factories and housing, perfectly good, but doing nothing. Lots of supply, no demand.

This has recently been exasperated by a scam. China has the equivalent of our FDIC. Bank deposits are insured. However, financial instruments are not. A lot of people were sucked to buy financial instruments when they thought they were making deposits, and have lost their life savings. This has turned into a feeling that you won’t be able to get your life savings out of the banks, which has resulted in a run on the banks. Everybody’s life savings, gotten by producing things no one needs, is thus threatening the government.

It doesn’t help that a lot of China’s biggest and most profitable corporations are banks.

The scheme got China big fast, but leaves them currently with a big bank problem and a surplus of everything.

For a long time I haven’t been impressed by the CCP’s system, but I couldn’t see how it would be replaced. Suddenly, the possibility is becoming more real.

Clarkmod
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Clarkmod »

Bob Butler wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:22 pm
JDav wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:38 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:41 pm

That (R) is largely useless isn't my debate. My prediction still stands. The left, including the likes of bobby bish on this board, is insane and crazy, and has chaotic/destructive policies. That's explanation enough to turn a midterm election to the so called conservatives.
In a normal world, I agree with you. R's should pick up 35 - 40 seats in the House and at least 55-45 in the Senate. Over the years I've watched them too many times snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to put any money on it, though.
Most of the time, whenever one party wins both branches of Congress plus the White House, that party interprets the vote to be a mandate. They attempt to implement their agenda and go further than the people want. The result is the see saw we have seen since the 60s. Each party tries to do too much, implements their agenda too far, then does poorly in the mid terms. Thus, the supposed mandate doesn’t last very long. Neither party holds the White House for an extended period.

This time? The Democrats did win both sides of Congress, but barely, and people like Manchin have voted with the Republicans. Thus, they have not had an effective mandate, have not (over) implemented their agenda. The Democratic agenda failed, but it is the fault of the Republicans voting against it. That is a success for the Republicans, but if the Democrats do not over implement their agenda, the Republicans won’t get the advantage of more votes in the mid term. The blame for the failure will correctly go to the Republicans.

In addition, Trump’s attempts to steal the election are being exposed just as the mid terms are coming up. I suspect this is deliberate. If the Democrats have been slow to push prosecution and indictment, I suspect it is to hit the mid terms all the harder. The Republicans may nominate a bunch of Big Lie candidates just as the Big Lie is thoroughly discredited.

I know the Republicans are believing in the recent pattern of anticipating the party with the White House dropping seats in the mid terms. Recent polls are suggesting the opposite true due to the two factors mentioned above. While Biden has struggled in the first few years and not picked up a big following, a few extra seats in the Senate to give him a real mandate sized advantage would shift his presidency significantly.

Thus, the Mid terms may be interesting.

Clarkmod
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Clarkmod »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:04 am
Bob Butler wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:22 pm
In addition, Trump’s attempts to steal the election are being exposed just as the mid terms are coming up.
I can't help it, your delusion is so strong it's funny, please tell me where Mr. Trump attempted to "steal" an election? :lol:

Clarkmod
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Clarkmod »

Bob Butler wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:51 am
Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:04 am
Bob Butler wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:22 pm
In addition, Trump’s attempts to steal the election are being exposed just as the mid terms are coming up.
I can't help it, your delusion is so strong it's funny, please tell me where Mr. Trump attempted to "steal" an election? :lol:
I have trouble believing even you are that ignorant.

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