Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

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Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Trevor »

I've listened to some of those people and their claims are that 50-100 Hiroshima sized bombs would be enough to cause a nuclear winter effect. If that had any truth in it at all, it would have already happened, since the largest bomb ever tested was 50 megatons.

Once Iran gets the bomb, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will have nuclear weapons as well. All of them are begging us to do something about their nuclear program, but if we haven't acted by now, I don't think we're going to and I doubt it would completely stop the program even in that unlikely event.

Reality Check
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

I believe an attack by Israel on Iran in the next few weeks, is more likely, than not, for many reasons:

1. The Israeli government has been preparing their own people for war and, as you noted, Israeli civilians are scared.

2. Canada, pulled it's embassy and it's diplomats out of Iran in the past couple of weeks. Now Great Britain and Canada have no diplomats in Iran and are free to join in if Iran tries to retaliate by closing international water ways.

3. This massive naval exercise, at the same time as Obama refuses to set deadlines for Iran, means it is now or never for Israel to attack. Obama has called Israel's bluff, Obama refused to even meet with the Prime Minister of Israel, and it is very probable Israel was not bluffing. Obama appears to be heading for re-election at this point in time. Obama as President and Iran with Nuclear weapons may scare the leaders of Israel more than the results of starting a war of choice with Iran right now.

4. Sunni Muslim Arab leaders are distracted by power struggles between Islamists and Monarchists and Secularists within some countries and between different Islamist political parties ( and their militias ) in other countries.

Iran is in a lose, lose situation, if Israel attacks now. Iran will be forced to counter attack, but how and against who is the problem. Any attack on U.S. Interests, including the interests of Sunni Gulf states, anywhere in the world will bring a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Worlds only Naval superpower who happens to have it's navy parked right next to Iran at that moment.

Failure by Iran to attack U.S. interests any where will make Iran look weak, after Iran has threatened the U.S. so publicly.

Iran will be forced to ask Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Hamas may refuse, after all Hamas is Sunni and they now have the backing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Hezbollah, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip ( if Hamas elects to commit suicide ) will not recover from the war for decades, if ever. Hezbollah's enemies in Lebanon will attempt to finish off what ever is left of Hezbollah after Israel has done it's damage.

Iran's ally in Syria will be finished off by Sunni Muslims while Iran is distracted in Iran, the Persian Gulf and Lebanon.

Iran will survive, but Iran will be weaker, with most of it's military infrastructure in shambles and with fewer allies and more enemies.

The big winner will be the Sunni Muslim countries. They will win Syria ( or at least most of it ) and increase their influence in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.

Iraq will replace Syria as the site of an ongoing proxy war between Sunni controlled Arab countries and Shia Iran.

Israel will pay a price and buy a few more years as the only country in the Mid-East with nuclear weapons. Israel will have more Sunni Muslim enemies as neighbors and the Demographics, Geography and Economics will still get worse for Israel every year. Peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt maybe destroyed, if attacks by Isreal on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip are part of this "war of choice" by Israel.

Obama may win re-election, or lose re-election, based on how such a war of choice by Israel plays out.

Reality Check
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

Trevor wrote: Once Iran gets the bomb, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will have nuclear weapons as well. All of them are begging us to do something about their nuclear program, but if we haven't acted by now, I don't think we're going to and I doubt it would completely stop the program even in that unlikely event.
I agree that nothing short of regime change in Iran will permanently stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

I believe the chance of Obama using that much military force against Iran is less than zero.

I believe the most that could be expected from Obama would be a "golf clap" type attack on Iran, then an I told you war would never work speech from President Obama after Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test.

A much more serious and prolonged attack on Iran's infrastructure might delay the program for five years, even if the current regime stays in power in Iran, but I believe the chance of Obama launching such an attack is zero.

Which is why I believe Israel attacking Iran in the next few weeks is more likely, than not, if it still looks like Obama is going to get re-elected a week from now.

rebel1
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Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2022 5:57 am

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by rebel1 »

Attacks with slim prospects of success are a common component of crisis warfare. How could we possibly have been insane enough to battle the mightiest empire in history? That is how we got to be a nation. Yet we actually did that.

Lesteraction123
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:54 pm

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Lesteraction123 »

Attacks with slim prospects of success are a common component of crisis warfare. How could we possibly have been insane enough to battle the mightiest empire in history? That is how we got to be a nation. Yet we actually did that.

jamesthomas171
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:25 am

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by jamesthomas171 »

Even idiots in Washington understand that if Israel attacks Iran, it will almost certainly lead to a major war throughout the region, despite the fact that very few people understand generational dynamics. We won't be able to stay out of it for long if that happens.

jamesthomas171
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:25 am

Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by jamesthomas171 »

Despite the fact that very few people understand generational dynamics, even idiots in Washington understand that if Israel attacks Iran, it will almost probably result in a big conflict throughout the region.If that happens, we won't be able to remain neutral for very long.

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