Dialectics of Science and the Singularity

Discuss the future with a leading technologist, businessman and philosopher

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Spiralman
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:07 pm

High-End Vending Machines Take "Cut Out the Middleman" to An

Post by Spiralman »

High-End Vending Machines Take "Cut Out the Middleman" to Another Level; Turning Japanese

High-End Vending Machines Take "Cut Out the Middleman" to Another Level
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/art ... LuN1NLyKIk

US Employment by industry and occupational group
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ocwage.t02.htm

Retail trade .....................| 15,642,700 |

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That’s a gigantic number of jobs on the capital-techno-chopping block, which in turn feed back into global aggregate demand.
Great example of how each individual capitalist in order to reduce costs and maximize profits on an enterprise-basis erodes the purchasing power of their markets as a whole, and accentuates the overall tendency of the rate of profit to fall.

In this regard, like many others, the US is playing catch up with Japan, which I remember from when I lived there in 1985, it was already selling not only cigarettes and soda, but also coffee and tea, magazines, batteries, underwear, calculators, beer, and many other things via vending machines. Back then the machines seemed almost fun as they had lots of flashing lights and music, and had a slot machine/pachinko machine aspect to them as there was a chance that if the pattern of lights ended on a certain pattern you would win something.

Americans may one day look back fondly at the “good ole days” when retail giants like Walmart had almost a make-work like approach of employing elderly and handicapped greeters at the door, and had workers who could advise you which aisle where you could find something.
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Spiralman
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:07 pm

Japan's Rising Self-Sufficient Sun: Solar Subsidies' Target

Post by Spiralman »

Japan's Rising Self-Sufficient Sun: Solar Subsidies' Target is 20X growth by 2020; ~30% of all electricity; Fossil Fuels will be only 13% of total


http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20 ... Y08303.htm

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Since Depression looks likely to cut Japanese energy consumption by at least 25%:

Following is a table of energy consumption at TEPCO and the
total of Japan's 10 utilities for March and the 2008/09
business year.
Volumes of crude and fuel oil are in kilolitres; LNG and
coal are in tonnes.
Year-on-year percentage changes are in parentheses.
MARCH: TEPCO INDUSTRY TOTAL
Coal : 319,637 (-2%) 3,647,723 (-23%)
Fuel oil : 401,769 (-30%) 617,359 (-43%)
Crude oil: 231,872 (-29%) 325,497 (-72%)
LNG : 1,667,943 (-3%) 3,556,736 (-1%)
2008/2009 TEPCO INDUSTRY TOTAL
Coal : 3,113,289 (-10%) 50,690,908 (-4%)
Fuel oil : 6,014,455 (-12%) 10,267,149 (-14%)
Crude oil: 2,609,743 (-15%) 7,994,744 (-29%)
LNG : 18,972,793 (-1%) 40,736,732 (-2%)
Naphtha : 371 (-97%) 371 (-97%)

And since it also appears that Japan is preferentially cutting down on Conventional Thermal, ie burning fossil fuels, which is currently 600Billion kWh, and as a result of Depression would then be cut to 350BillionkWh

LED lights will replace all other lighting by 2020, slashing 25% of electricity usage, so electricity is unlikely to bounce back from the Depression.

Since Japan’s solar subsidies will drive growth of Solar to ~30% of total electricity from 1.3% today, ie, ~300 Billion kWh

The combination of a –25% Depression (LEDs keeping it down afterwards) plus Solar Subsidies 20X growth target by 2020, with an anti-fossil fuel plant shutdown preference would drop fossil fuels down to 100 Billion kWh (from 600 Billion) out of a Depression plus LED lighting reduced consumption of 750 Billion kWh.

By 2020, Fossil fuels will produce only 13% of Japan’s electricity.

This will alter Japan’s geostrategic situation dramatically.
If Japan effected a similar transition for transportation through hybrid vehicles
, which seems highly likely with Toyota, Honda and Nissan all committed to hybrids – Toyota says they will sell only hybrids by 2020, Nissan will sell only electric by 2020 – then Japan basically wouldn’t need the rest of the world’s fossil fuels very much.

So, while the Middle East goes up in Islamic revolutionary and world war flames, accelerated by the global reduction in demand for oil, Japan will not be affected much at all.

After the US and Russia are dramatically weakened by the crisis in their energy-providing Islamic spheres of influence, Japan will be in a very stable, self-reliant position, ready to be quite influential in the post-crisis world, for having been able to sit it out.

Of course, Japan might still get sucked into conflicts with Russia or China over various oil and gas rights, and could face a need to redirect internal frustrations over the economy, but regardless, they won’t be urgently propelled into these conflicts, and will have increasing levels of freedom to shrug their shoulders over the aggressive postures of others.

Food is another issue as Japan imports a great deal of her food, but it appears that they are angling to assist potential supplier countries to increase their capacities:


Japan to aid agriculture in developing countries

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eefe5c6e-3456 ... abdc0.html

Of course, if that doesn’t work out.....
Hydroponics: A Smart Alternative to Growing Rice?
http://www.biotech-weblog.com/50226711/ ... g_rice.php

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Japan uses Korean LEDs for agricultural lighting

http://compoundsemiconductor.net/blog/2 ... uctor.html

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A staff of 'A' company said, "This project focuses on the LED lighting fixtures for farming which have high brightness LED with high light quantum, and especially optical wavelength of red and blue light can hasten the growth of plants so that enables stable harvesting from vegetable farming.

By participating in this project, Seoul Semiconductor confirmed their competitive power in the Japanese market having advanced technologies, and the possibility to expand the LED market as a lighting source for farming. This is expected to be a starting point in developing new markets. With artificial light source, the quality and quantity of plants may increase through farming without agricultural chemicals and influence of weather, leading to higher income of farm families. In the past, incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps and sodium lamps have been mainly used, but in the present time, eco-friendly LED of high efficiency and long lifespan without carbon discharge is being popular. Also Seoul Semiconductor has supplied LEDs for agricultural lighting in Canada.

According to the report of Rural Development Association of Korea, assuming that we cultivate crops with supplementary lighting in about 3,000 ha by using LED, we can get 70% energy saving effect compared to incandescent lamps, which amounts to $12M per year. Especially, farming with artificial lighting became possible even in a dessert or the Arctic region. Therefore, it is expected to be helpful to remove food problems over the world.
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Finally, if Japan continued the planned pace of solar installation growth of the 20teens, then 5 years later (2025) they could shut down all of their nuclear power plants too.

160 years after the Meiji Restoration which opened Japan back up to the world and 80 Years after the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan would finally be free of the world; free of the need for either having their own empire or riding shotgun with American imperial rule in order to supply themselves with energy and food.

If it wanted to Japan could choose to close itself off once again from the world into an Island Fortress.
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Paul
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat May 23, 2009 1:07 am

Re: Dialectics of Science and the Singularity

Post by Paul »

I have to doubt that solar will advance to the extent of shutting down most conventional electric production, due to storage and problems with load balance. If it did, then vanadium would be through the roof, so if you think this will happen, buy vanadium futures. Vanadium is the only substance I know of suitable for "pumped batteries" of the size needed to balance this kind of heavy load. And if that makes you think of the old golden SF era "accumulators", then so be it, because that's what they are.

Now, on the other side of the house, robots with ethics?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30810070/

A bit early for that, or so I'd think.

OLD1953
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:16 pm

Brain to machine interface becomes reality.

Post by OLD1953 »

The subject is a 26 year old man who is totally paralyzed in every sense. He can now speak, via a brain interface to a computer speech synthesizer.

http://www.physorg.com/news180620740.html

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