German PPI Forecast to be 36.8% but came in at 45.8%
Dollar/Euro/Yen are not going to have a good decade.
Central banks around the world will probably move higher and higher percentage of reserves to gold (in part because
their dollar bonds will drop in value fast while their gold does not).
Bitcoin is probably the long term answer for individuals and businesses.
Dollar is not a good long term store of value from here.
Correct, Piepenberg just spoke on this recently with Makori, great 2 part interview over at kitco. If you go buy fading the public (strong dollar) and considering the beaten up (I'm not a gold bug but that's the reality, with bitcoin) you'll see that these are the times to buy. If you are too scared since you think BTC will take one more leg down (I do) to 13-15k, just enter gold and silver when they are forgotten about assets, which is what Rick Rule and logic would tell you.
The problem I have with investing in anything right now is that the markets are going to go to the June S&P low again, pretty clearly - or even further. Tumult after the midterms either way; if Dems win the elections will never be again trusted. If Repubs win the media and central planners will cause more problems ... then Trump will come back, whew, it'll be both ridiculous, painful and maybe fun from an entertainment aspect, depending on if you are out of a big city or not.
Pre-market futures seem to support this cascading downwards elliott wave count. Once the (5) wave is done (which would be 1 of III, we'll possibly see another bear market rally before the most anticipated wave structure 3 of III, at which point the rout will be on and the selling force of individuals trying to save their 401k's will be obvious for all to see.
Pre-market futures seem to support this cascading downwards elliott wave count. Once the (5) wave is done (which would be 1 of III, we'll possibly see another bear market rally before the most anticipated wave structure 3 of III, at which point the rout will be on and the selling force of individuals trying to save their 401k's will be obvious for all to see.
When's the (5) done? I see it going towards 3200. I think Soloway sees a drop towards 3500, which is another 5% from here, and we are down 1.6% today as I write this at 11:30 eastern time.
When's the (5) done? I see it going towards 3200. I think Soloway sees a drop towards 3500, which is another 5% from here, and we are down 1.6% today as I write this at 11:30 eastern time.
I'm eyeing some support around 3350 or so. I know there's still the count that we're still in an ABC correction and that II hasn't fully completed which would see some of the higher gaps on the S&P close. I'm keeping an eye on it but it's not my favorite count at the moment based on the fed, the dollar, earnings and everything else going on from a macro perspective.
When's the (5) done? I see it going towards 3200. I think Soloway sees a drop towards 3500, which is another 5% from here, and we are down 1.6% today as I write this at 11:30 eastern time.
I'm eyeing some support around 3350 or so. I know there's still the count that we're still in an ABC correction and that II hasn't fully completed which would see some of the higher gaps on the S&P close. I'm keeping an eye on it but it's not my favorite count at the moment based on the fed, the dollar, earnings and everything else going on from a macro perspective.
One more bear rally after a drop to 3300-3500 level? Then a big move down to 3k or lower ... then printing presses for one last time in 2023?
That's my best guess, and as we all know, guessing is a very, very hard game so we just want to be somewhat close with cues here and there.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
The Yen, Euro, and Pound are sort of periphery and breaking down reasonably slowly for now, but when the dollar goes it will probably collapse suddenly and violently.
Part of what is holding the dollar up so far is people fleeing from these other currencies to the dollar. At some point they will flee the dollar for commodities, gold, Bitcoin, etc. That will be violent. The name for it even sounds kind of violent, "crack-up boom".
When 4200 got touched and soundly rejected after Powell's speech I think that was the real tell that a fast decline could be starting. That would be consistent with a wave 3, or more generally speaking the point at which the herd begins to realize that the market is going to break the June low. If that's right, it would mean wave iii of 3 of 1 of a larger 3 is starting, which would imply the market has a long way to fall soon. It's also my guess that this decline may end up looking more like the decline starting in mid August 1937 than anything else, though it probably will fall more percentage wise. From mid August to mid October 1937 the market fell relentlessly day after day with almost no relief.
This turned out to be kind of a flop; so far this month, the S&P has come close to the June low but stayed above it. Now I will be watching for a possible move higher for a few days before a bigger move down after the first week in October. That assumes that this is a typical crash pattern that follows the lunar cycles (similar to 1929 and 1987).
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
The Yen, Euro, and Pound are sort of periphery and breaking down reasonably slowly for now, but when the dollar goes it will probably collapse suddenly and violently.
Part of what is holding the dollar up so far is people fleeing from these other currencies to the dollar. At some point they will flee the dollar for commodities, gold, Bitcoin, etc. That will be violent. The name for it even sounds kind of violent, "crack-up boom".
Bernanke put the process of sucking the periphery dry into hyperdrive with QE. I also had in mind that the periphery includes parts of the US as well as the rest of the world. I agree that "suddenly and violently" could describe the end of the current financial system, a resulting civil or world war, and probably things I haven't thought of.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
I agree that "suddenly and violently" could describe the end of the current financial system, a resulting civil or world war, and probably things I haven't thought of.
I still have some hope that people/countries switch to Bitcoin and we can avoid world war.
But the longer the world keeps trading real things for the paper the US prints on, the more upset the
world is going to get.
I agree that "suddenly and violently" could describe the end of the current financial system, a resulting civil or world war, and probably things I haven't thought of.
I still have some hope that people/countries switch to Bitcoin and we can avoid world war.
But the longer the world keeps trading real things for the paper the US prints on, the more upset the
world is going to get.
Exactly. But one could argue you still have the problem of all that USD denominated debt out there ...
