Financial topics

[aeden]

Sample noted as we did since 2003.
You can't trust anything the xiden people say. You can't make a billion dollar investment based on the word of these people. As soon as the first Hurricane hits the gulf coast this Summer gasoline cost will jump above $5 and stay there. Good luck.

download/file.php?id=704

Go ahead and vote blue or red and see if they even pretend to listen.

Will Rogers was simply correct "this country has come to feel the same when Congress is in session as when the baby gets hold of a hammer."

It's day 520 of Build Back Better with Captain Oatmeal.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=vgukM6gI

thread: gY7RIn4byK0, lightswitch, seven sisters, peleg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY7RIn4byK0 every single time

Oil Company: Let me get this straight. You hate us but demand that we "do something" to save your a$$ in the mid-terms.

Thursday with governors, labor leaders, and business leaders to discuss the implementation of more offshore wind capacity, snubbing oil company executives who were meeting with U.S. Energy Secretary

As red the trucker hums the roof the roof is on fire....

The “hot” phase of the conflict formally ended with the signing of the Minsk agreements in February 2015, although clashes and shelling continued. For seven years thereafter, the conflict seemed “frozen” — a common phenomenon in global politics. meduza

The carrot will placed were you think and the stick will be used as you already know.

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants
7. see step one

https://media.patriots.win/post/iDgTJ5bU.png Your new leader serfs.

They mock you every second as you worship these moleks.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden- ... un-dispute
Blue flush.

You will be lucky to be in a staggering economy as 2026 comes and goes.

[aeden]

Enough butt hurt reports to keep the crayon chewers busy into mid terms coma.
This dead cat was suspect to carve a bottom from the early year frozen dead cat spreader.
These poor democrat bastards are being wiped out in real time locally on aggregate cost basis
and replacement costs. Pain is judgement and they are heading up the food chain not down.
As warned the stuff coming in just destroys there brains since it was designed to do just that.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-f ... uke-it-out
Muppets and penguins are well, targets.
Vin your fish farm may get done by September as we noted.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-f ... uke-it-out

The beaten by an ugly stick will be back in fashion.

Wait for UVXY to hit 7 since Keynes Beauty pageant will be dammed well over for some time.
The loot and scoot liberals are just doubling down as barky proved and known since 1973.

[aeden]

John Kerry’s climate secretariat came in at $16.5 million and it was “probably more than that,” a Congressman who studied the line item says.
That figure, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, said, is “10 times” more than what’s doled out to “elected officials,” but the details of Kerry’s office from his pay on down remain a secret.
Roy called Kerry’s stance on energy policies as gas prices soar “absolute absurdity” and added during an interview on the Howie Carr Show Thursday that he wants to defund the climate office and has filed a “No Taxpayer Funds for Czars Act.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 9769482949

Potato heads are losing ketchup people.
The tards are going to be wiped clean since we know what the parts are produced with.
The loot and scoot liberals are wiping you clean since even before the 1973 facts Elroy.
https://media.patriots.win/post/iDgTJ5bU.png Your leader anyways tards.

[Cool Breeze]

I don't know what reverse/pivot means. Please be kind enough to post the relevant URL

lower rates, stop hiking, consider QE etc ... the problem is they are in a ramping cycle for QT, which in September will be vastly larger than now

That alone could set off a cascade of events from its drying up of liquidity and breaking leverage, regardless of the rate decisions.

You are a difficult person to communicate with. I have never comes across the concept of reverse/pivot before and I wanted to read exactly what Luke Gromen said because you said that this came from him. Instead you give me your own personal explanation / view. I didn't ask for that and I don't want to read that. I won't ask you for references again

I told you what it was, read the first three things. Then stated the reality, not my opinion.

Your response is both ungrateful and weird.

[richard5za]

I told you what it was, read the first three things. Then stated the reality, not my opinion.

Your response is both ungrateful and weird.

Mr Cool Breeze,

NOT WEIRD - We established that you were unable or unwilling to provide the proof source

UNGRATEFUL - YES - Because instead of giving me what Luke Gromen actually said you gave me the amazing, all knowing, and wise Cool Breeze version. Which is what I didn't want

So lets drop this matter and continue with generational dynamics

[Cool Breeze]

I told you what it was, read the first three things. Then stated the reality, not my opinion.

Your response is both ungrateful and weird.

Mr Cool Breeze,

NOT WEIRD - We established that you were unable or unwilling to provide the proof source

UNGRATEFUL - YES - Because instead of giving me what Luke Gromen actually said you gave me the amazing, all knowing, and wise Cool Breeze version. Which is what I didn't want

So lets drop this matter and continue with generational dynamics

I'm not mad, just was confused. You do realize you can search Luke Gromen on youtube or twitter and in a nanosecond see any number of his recent interviews, right?

[Tom Mazanec]

Cool Breeze, I am afraid that I have to side with richard5za on this one. He asked for the source, a perfectly sensible thing to do. Yes, it was easy to find (I found and linked it myself in a few moments of looking) but it was reasonable to expect you to post it.
I mentioned here that I had heard Powell admit a recession might be required to get inflation under control. This came to me as notification on my iPhone. I do not know how to do links on a smartphone. If asked I would not have been snippy but would have hunted it up and given it as soon as I got to my desktop.
EDIT: In fact here is more on that news:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/202 ... -politics/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/busi ... ssion.html

[Higgenbotham]

The trick isn't in differentiating value from a bubble. It's not an either/or proposition. We're in an all one market bubble where, as I've said, there are ~5,000 bubble items to differentiate. The trick is to differentiate relative value within the all one market bubble. At any given time, there will be a few items out of those ~5,000 that represent the best relative value. I look at my job as to find those and flip them as their price goes up and other items displace them as having better relative value.

A little over a year ago, I said everything in the market was in a bubble. Now there may be a few pockets of value in the market. I say "may" because we don't know for sure how much earnings will deteriorate in the future. As a rough estimate, I would say 2% of the market may be in the value range and 98% is still in a bubble.

When everything was in a bubble, my goal was to flip items the same day. Now I am willing to hold some items for a few days.

[Higgenbotham]

An example of a stock that may be in the value range is Malibu Boats (MBUU). While I am finding a handful of stocks that seem clearly in the value range, MBUU to me is borderline (as are most of the 2% mentioned above). There are various reasons to think that earnings could collapse enough some years out to make this borderline. However, there are other reasons to think that boat demand may stay strong (similar to RVs).

Barrons published an article about one year ago saying MBUU should be in the $90 to $100 area by this time. The earnings estimates given in the article for 2022 have been exceeded and analyst estimates now indicate that the estimates given in the article for 2023 will also be exceeded. Despite this, the stock is currently $53.60 which is a PE of:

7.3 times trailing 12 month earnings
6.9 times 2022 earnings based on 2022 Q1-3 actuals and Q4 estimates
6.3 times 2023 estimates

While this stock may not be in the clear value range yet, it would be hard to argue that this stock is in a bubble based on the current valuation and management's history of delivering results.

What do the stock traders here think of this stock or any similar priced stocks that may be able to hold their earnings better than most others during a downturn?

The purpose of this is to build a list of low valuation relatively safer items that may rebound after a panic washout that may be coming up later this year. I am going through approximately 5,000 stocks looking for the few that I would consider in such a scenario, where there will not be much time to act.

Currently I am not holding any stocks and am not short either. 100% in cash. I may go short if another collapse begins from this approximate area but I did not take a short position at the end of the week as the market ran higher.

Boat Sales May Be Cresting. This Stock Looks Ready to Power Through.

By Daren Fonda
Updated July 12, 2021 / Original July 9, 2021

Barron's Newsletters
The Barron's Daily

Buying a boat this summer has been futile for many shoppers. Dealers have been sold out for months. “Every dealer I know is out of inventory,” says Matt Borisch, owner of Tommy’s, a large powerboat dealership based in Grand Rapids, Mich.

Like cars, computer chips, and chicken wings, the boating industry is going through a disruption. Families flocked to the waters as vacation getaways dried up in the pandemic. Powerboat sales soared 21% last year to $19.5 billion, the highest level since 2008. Registrations of new boats are running 38% ahead of last year’s pace, according to industry-research firm Statistical Surveys.

The wave may now be cresting, as vaccinated consumers start spending their recreation dollars on trips to Europe and Disneyland. But one of the largest powerboat manufacturers, Malibu Boats MBUU +0.15% (ticker: MBUU), is still looking healthy, with orders going strong well into 2022.

“People started saying a few months ago that demand would decelerate, but we haven’t seen it,” says Malibu CEO Jack Springer. The company has presold more than 80% of the boats it plans to manufacture through June 2022, well above its 50% rate in normal times, he says. “We haven’t seen an order book like this in our history,” Springer adds. Based on current trends, he doesn’t see inventories normalizing until 2024.
Malibu Boats / MBUU

The market seems skeptical that the good times will last, assigning Malibu’s stock a low valuation. But even if sales cool off, Malibu should sustain growth, bolstered by market-leading brands, lean manufacturing, and innovative technologies fueling demand for its products.

“They sell into the most attractive markets in the industry,” says Rayna Lesser Hannaway, comanager of the Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Fund PBSRX +3.45% (PBSRX), which owns the stock. “It’s a well-run business, and they have the strongest brands in sports boats.”

Based in Loudon, Tenn., the company has ramped up production and acquisitions in recent years. The firm bought the manufacturer Cobalt Boats in 2017, added Pursuit Boats in 2018, and made a deal for Maverick Boat Group in January, paying $150 million. Malibu now builds 75 models, premium-priced from $89,000 to $243,000. Production is expected to hit 10,000 boats over the next year. The company recently expanded its Cobalt plants and aims to lift output at Maverick by 30% as it targets the saltwater fishing market.

The playbook is working well, says Berenberg analyst Rudy Yang, who sees the stock hitting $100, up from recent prices around $70. The company successfully integrated Cobalt and Pursuit, he says, squeezing out costs and boosting margins. He expects similar synergies with Maverick once it’s integrated, fueling top- and bottom-line growth.

Malibu generates industry-leading margins, compared with rivals Mastercraft Boat Holdings MCFT +0.98% (MCFT) and Brunswick BC +2.22% (BC), partly because it’s more vertically integrated. The company buys engine blocks from General Motors and Volvo and then “marinizes” them for boating, eliminating a manufacturing middleman. Malibu also custom-builds its own boat towers, or frame-coverings, developing power-folding versions for tight spots in marinas or under bridges, along with its own trailers, racks, and flooring. “If it can be made of metal, we’re manufacturing it,” says Springer.

Malibu is also known for high-tech features, including rear-facing cameras, large cockpit screens, and luxury interiors. And it has taken a leading role in developing boats for wake-surfing, a fast-growing watersport.

Malibu-brand boats, its biggest sellers, are prized for wake surfing. The company launched a proprietary surf gate in 2012 that customizes the boat’s wake for the rider. “Wake surfing was hard to do before, and this made it easier,” says Springer. Other manufacturers now offer similar features, but Malibu has vaulted to the top spot in ski/wake boats with a 32% market share, according to Statistical Surveys.

Despite Malibu’s strengths, the stock looks undervalued. Shares trade at 10 times estimated earnings for fiscal 2022, ending next June, below their five-year average price/earnings ratio of 12 times forward earnings. Wall Street analysts see earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, rising 20% in fiscal 2022. Based on enterprise value to Ebitda, the stock trades at about seven times 2022 estimates.

Skepticism on the stock reflects concerns that the boating boom will soon bust: The industry’s sales tend to dry up in economic downturns and take years to recover. Sport-boat sales collapsed by 63% from 2006 to 2010. Even in a healthy market in 2018, retail sales were 20% lower than their peak in 2006. “Most boating companies haven’t done a great job of sustaining growth,” says Hannaway. “There’s fear that the business isn’t repeatable and the rush to buy boats in the pandemic will abate.”

But the market may be treating Malibu stock too harshly. “The company is being valued as if its business is more cyclical than current trends would suggest,” she says. Revenue should increase at a “low teens” rate over the next five years, she estimates, led by higher production, margin improvements, and some price increases.

B. Riley Securities analyst Eric Wold also expects demand to persist, partly because many first-time buyers started boating in the pandemic, fueling a new replacement cycle. “It will take years to rebuild inventories even to prepandemic levels of demand,” he says, seeing the stock at $103 a year from now. Even at that price, he notes, it would trade in line with its average historical multiple.

Consensus estimates call for Malibu to generate Ebitda of $222 million in fiscal 2022, rising to $243 million in 2023. Those gains are expected to lift earnings per share 18% over the next year to $6.85. At a multiple of 12 times estimated 2023 profits of $7.46, the stock would trade around $90. That looks like a fair price for a boat maker that may be surfing a long wave of demand.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-ma ... 1625861724

Due to the popularity of S&P 500 index funds, if the herd panics, stocks in the S&P 500 will be sold more indiscriminately than other stocks. Therefore, I will be keying in on S&P 500 stocks ahead of time for those that might be bought for a trade in that event.

Zacks has a screening tool that under "Company Descriptors" has a selection for whether a stock is included in the S&P 500 ETF.

When looking at S&P 500 stocks, I find that the valuations seem too high relative to smaller cap stocks. I would be looking for that situation to reverse before doing anything with those stocks. That could happen if enough index funds are sold.

Since March of last year, the Russell 2000 index is down about 20% while the S&P 500 index is about unchanged.

[aeden]

It appears from multiple fronts as we know here know the stock better than your wife.
T notes fomo and wait and see on position and no stock is going to be prome queen buttercup
and pumpkin head. The velfit rope has locked capital down and they know they are not going be on that side of
the divide.
Into september appears to be rather close enough for now. The oct27 which is 300 days into this year
we will sweep deeper and the consumer is the ruthless arbiter.
As the information suggested its not backing down, Dr Copper and Industrials are just targets as you noted.
The dim-ocrats as they always do just doubled down on esg fantasys since yea they are looters and just lie
cheat steal.
The wife talked to folks and they know the pain is starting and they are abandoned from the demsheviks
and uniparty swamp apparatchiks.
They feel the hard rain which is real. Its written on ther faces and countenance.
We are alerting the Elders judgement is know at hand as we noted.
They know they been knifed. Captain Oatmeal is the Anathema and they know the roof is on fire.
The guy is just literal poison. Gumbys blockhead.

Wall street can hold hands the locals are just holding on and its like watching the seventys.
The belt way is a damned curse as we knew what and how they are since commanding heights
and the unix toolbox. This Cantillon nightmare is just starting.
Morg noted forty percent liquid in accounts. Sherlock time.
book four open


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJin83tfq5I

https://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?k ... sf=msgonly

Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:54 pm
As we warned clearly here also is what was planned by the locusts who eat the root as warned.
In the time of the flood and eclipse with to root social divides we hold the line in the hour seen.
peleg------- reu -------- serug-------- nahor-------- terah
Coded from the book to events seen long before in the order of names.

thread: amos, javons paradox, peleg