Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
spottybrowncow
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Re: Financial topics

Post by spottybrowncow »

vincecate wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:52 pm
Video on understanding "labor shortage": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFBXTzOJXoY
Interesting in that video that John Hussman thinks stocks may fall by 70% based upon current ROE, which I believe mirrors what John has said about current P/E.

richard5za
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Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:52 pm
Video on understanding "labor shortage": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFBXTzOJXoY
Turning to this week, US futures are bouncing up a bit in Asia this morning. But great caution is warranted both long and short. Too risky for me; I've taken my trading profits and am back 100% in cash What's going to be interesting to monitor in the days ahead is how any bounce gets treated. Will a bounce get sold into? Or will we trade back to new highs. Or is this the beginning of a serious correction?

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

The -other- strain fear narrrative is missing the point since operation warp speed that actually worked
into the data fragilty warnings.
The official problem is the other maniacs developed vacines which caused its own issue only to ignore the actual
process of antibody treatment still ignored once you get it.
Yea we kept our zinc up and no amount of hand wringing or masks is going to stop it so stop being crayon chewers
about masks. We wear one when they ask so its not big deal stop bitching you have more important things to consider about now.
You have around 10 days to get treatment since we are the front line people that had the vacine and had a
chance to get out the hospital alive and the atibody treatment to keep you out of the Hospital.
In our case we appear not to headed in that direction so far.
Alot of younger did not make but overall the chance of survival increased with it with out more complication
which are numerous. As we told you then 1 in 13 released will be dead in under two years. The walking wounded and
effected from the visues attacks on numerous areas of our Bodies.

For us the Hologic Aptima SARS-CoV-2 Transcription Mediated Amplification (TMA) assay worked and we
got the REGEN-COV that consists of the monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab, administered together.

YOU have no clue how bad the people are being treated from patients and the health care people have millions of jobs
to fill somewhere else.

I can tell you the vacine increases the chance you do not end up on a matress from unstaffed systems from facts you cannot wrap
your head around yet.

As in our case the antibodys this last week made a distinct difference around 48 hours.
What cannot be stressed enoungh is sure we are older but we already buried the alcohol and tobacco people we knew
and this last round is taking more out.
My wife is improving slowly and I am watching the Oximeter as today improve.

If all goes well we will thank the staff and curse the assholes who allowed this to happen in the first place from
maniacs in lab messing with things that murdered millions.

It been a week now and we are slowly regaining our lives back. Meanwhile the crayon chewers and children attack
those just trying to be left alone since they are still mindless shitbags.

richard5za
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Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:13 pm
richard5za wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:09 am
Symptoms of new Omicron Covid variant appear mild thus far. Extract from News24 today:
It seems that doctor had only seen a small number of young healthy people (no co-morbidities). So we really don't have usable data on how fatality rates on Omicron compare to other strains yet.
Quite right Vince no factual data at all. But markets are about sentiment first of all and if you are short term trading a market its a possible sentiment to be aware of. Both S&P500 and Nasdaq had engulfing candles on their weekly data last week and mild symptom Omcron is a sentiment in the opposite direction.

richard5za
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Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

spottybrowncow wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:47 pm
vincecate wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:52 pm
Video on understanding "labor shortage": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFBXTzOJXoY
Interesting in that video that John Hussman thinks stocks may fall by 70% based upon current ROE, which I believe mirrors what John has said about current P/E.
Value perceptions in times of a bubble are always problematic because humans value items and assets based upon recent price experience.
So the current S&P P/E ratio of 29 and an idex value of 4600 produces no panic because the price has steadily climbed over a long period of time. The fact that the historical 120 year view of fair value is a P/E of 18 in good times and 13 in bad times, with a history of over corrections when bubbles burst is not part of price value assessment by most people.
I'm an optimist compared to some people on this site and I reckon a low P/E of 6 to 10 will be the post bubble low. So thats a market drop of between 80% and 65% versus current levels. Nothing clever in this assessment just an application of long term history.
And finally getting the timing right is the really hard part. I have been expecting a crash since the end of 2017 and it hasn't happened. I thought March 2020 was it and I was wrong. Lets see if there is a crash in 2022

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

"Averaging stock market capitalization to GDP ratios from seventeen developed economies over the past 150 years reveals the world has never witnessed an equity bubble of the current magnitude."
[...]
"The conclusion of the K&Z paper is that until the 1980s stock market caps in developed economies grew roughly in line with GDP. Hence, the weighted average market cap to GDP ratio hovered around 50% for 110 years. Since the 1980s, market cap growth accelerated much faster than GDP, caused by increases in stock prices, not issuance growth. According to K&Z the key reason has been a profit shift from other parts of the economy towards listed firms. And higher profit margins have mostly been aided by lower interest expenses."

In other words, the Fed's low interest rates have blown the biggest bubble the world has ever seen.

https://thegoldobserver.substack.com/p/ ... bal-equity

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Rivian is about $120/share and to buy a put option at $120 strike price (current price) for January 20, 2023 costs about $45.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RIVN/op ... 800&p=RIVN

If you short at $120 and it goes to zero in the next year you don't even triple your money.
I think this means lots of people think it will go down but the risk of it going higher is real enough that shorting is also risky.

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

richard5za wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:04 am
Quite right Vince no factual data at all. But markets are about sentiment first of all and if you are short term trading a market its a possible sentiment to be aware of. Both S&P500 and Nasdaq had engulfing candles on their weekly data last week and mild symptom Omcron is a sentiment in the opposite direction.
Well, it went up today. I don't play the short term stuff.

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

"And yet, it happened. Somebody paid roughly $650,000 in ethereum for an NFT yacht that only exists in an also-ran metaverse platform last week. "

https://futurism.com/the-byte/650000-nf ... -metaverse

We just have to be getting close to the crash. Things are far too crazy to go much further.

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL BELIEVES THAT THE OMICRON VARIANT OF COVID-19 AND A RECENT UPTICK IN CORONAVIRUS CASES POSE A THREAT TO THE U.S. ECONOMY AND COMPLICATES INFLATION PICTURE

This is why the market is up. Powell opened his mouth.

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