Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Cool Breeze
Posts: 2317
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

richard5za wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:33 am
vincecate wrote:
Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:18 pm
Image
Totally agree with the trend analysis. It is possible to get "false breaks" which cause even more losses because some people believe so completely that they are willing to bet "the farm" to make a fortune

So there may or may not be a santa rally. For me it would need to brak up to about 4350 before I would think that the bear was over

I am anticipating some euphoria around the CPI on the 13th and then there's an option expiry on 15th, so things could be a bit hectic. But it may be quite different to this!!!
Nice post. I'm really close to shorting, might do it today. I don't see a Santa rally. Even if we do, it'll be small. No way it's going much higher than 4100, which I don't think it'll get. Forget 4200. January will be bad, and so will the rest of 2023 until they pivot, which is when it'll be its worst.

Enjoy it. I'm selling most and shorting the Russell. Put that in my list of plays/predictions but don't forget that timing is hard, but of course it's the point of the game at this juncture.

Notice that in August it hit 4307 (8/15) then scaled lower to 3910 on 9/5 after more head faking, finally climbing to 4110 on 9/11 (the next monday). Then we went all the way to sub 3600. Lower highs and lower lows. We could get that Santa move you all are talking about, but it will be very short lived if they even bother. My $.02

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2317
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

As of yesterday, the cleveland fed "nowcasting" https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators ... nowcasting states that month over month % change will be roughly the same in December, as will year over year (half a point up for monthly, half a point down for yearly). The YoY, which the press focuses on, might go down by 0.1-0.2 if we are conservative. They can find any reason to buy, but ultimately this isn't it and won't stick. There will be more selling after that print release, we might just have to wait a couple weeks.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 6567
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Out of the 8 traders I track closely, this time MacroCharts was the most accurate. Posted November 14:

https://twitter.com/MacroCharts/status/ ... 60/photo/1
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 9846
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

off 100 ma is the current %target
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=e1zgdbIF
as noted book4 closed monday
hurst M cycle and H long count reference still valid

as we noted here out a day early book4 short
a day late you gave your money away
will monitor the break down to 100 ma dead cat move if/then
expect 2023 lost as insourcing buckets develope

protect the year as santa rally is your problem not those locked in

you could say the summation wave was dumb luck

yes no clue we locked in %gain

rinse and repeat as %gain went to bearx for 2023 for now

capex will be tight and yes we understand the chip act also

consumer is also wasting

vincecate
Posts: 2359
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

aeden wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:26 pm
Something not understandable.
Reminds me. There is an amazing chat bot that is smart enough to be helpful.
https://chat.openai.com/chat

You need to make a free account and if you have google email it is very easy.

This ChatGPT can write poems, stories, etc. You can ask it questions on many things and
it answers rather well. So it has a wide range of knowledge and is very fast at answering,
so it can be a good place to get started when looking for something. It is probably not yet
as smart as the average human but this is GPT v3.5 (came out last week) and there will be
future versions.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 6567
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:26 pm
as we noted here out a day early book4 short
I covered my whole short position today at an average of SPX 3947. There's that saying about having a position lowering your IQ. So when I had the position I thought the market would go lower, but I want to see what I think when I don't.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 6567
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:
Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:59 am
Silvergate Bank has served entrepreneurs in unique and niche industries for over 20 years.
Recognizing digital currency's potential during the sector's infancy,
we built strong relationships with pioneers who were turned away by traditional banks.

Silvergate’s total deposits from all digital asset customers totaled $11.9 billion, of which FTX represented less than 10%. Silvergate has no outstanding loans to nor investments in FTX, and FTX is not a custodian for Silvergate’s bitcoin-collateralized SEN Leverage loans. To be clear, our relationship with FTX is limited to deposits,” said Alan Lane, Chief Executive Officer of Silvergate.

Lane continued, “To date, all SEN Leverage loans have continued to perform as expected with zero losses and no forced liquidations. As a reminder, all SEN Leverage loans are collateralized by Bitcoin, and we do not make unsecured loans or collateralize SEN Leverage loans with other digital assets.”
https://ir.silvergate.com/news/news-det ... fault.aspx
Lane concluded, “Silvergate’s platform was built to support our clients during times of market volatility and transformation, and the SEN has continued to operate as designed and without interruption. As a federally regulated banking institution that is well capitalized, we maintain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity to support our customers’ needs.” Mkt Cap 925 Million


Appears some indeed just maybe made it past the dnc lie cheat steal grifter cult.
https://s23.q4cdn.com/615058218/files/d ... b9cad6.pdf


View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 005557/en/
Investor Relations:
Hunter Stenback/Ashna Vasa
(858) 200-3782
investors@silvergate.com

Not long or short btc at the moment.
As noted the cold wallet people survived the other third party lunatic.

It is on a watch list until march sweeps. It is infected for now but read the balance sheet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezA49W-YxAc
I just started nibbling at 22.02. Very small. This is my only position at the moment.

The low on the news this morning in pre-market was 20.88. I didn't get up early enough to catch it. I will trade in and out of swings and will be executing as if the price will ultimately bottom in the teens. Maybe it doesn't get there but that will be my approach.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 9846
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

I will indeed look at it H as noted for dca.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/BEARX/quote
bearx is $1500 to get in so yesterday was a very nice day.
I goal was to put some away and forget it. 2023 view was forwarded from if/then to because/then for mapping.
The theta carry did not hurt me this round in additions to book4 short today then.
To bad they do not understand a summation wave funtion or AI python scrapes.
Last edited by aeden on Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:59 pm, edited 4 times in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 6567
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:04 pm
I just started nibbling at 22.02. Very small. This is my only position at the moment.

The low on the news this morning in pre-market was 20.88. I didn't get up early enough to catch it. I will trade in and out of swings and will be executing as if the price will ultimately bottom in the teens. Maybe it doesn't get there but that will be my approach.
Sold it at 22.46, 2% is enough in 30 minutes. The amount of capital put into it was less than 1% of my account. I'll be watching this one and working with it more.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 9846
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

good move closing and sitting tight H
book4 closed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV1N2R2vdBA Roses have special aroma.

We just maybe find support or skip.

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