Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

aeden wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:43 am
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=0AzKqPSn

Bulls to be vaporised. We will see what gaps get filled. The Sogo Sosha lines are not broken globally.
Biden is Communist and the next generation will be slaves to service the debt.
87000 Lois Lerners to go after a handfull of millionairs. Taxpayers are idiots led by fools.
Tax revolt? How will the slaves pay the taxes?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:16 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:54 pm
I follow 8 traders who have a good record of calling intermediate term trends in the market. Their positions and targets (where they have them) are:

1. Long from a higher level. The S&P is going to 5,000.
2. Long from a much higher level. The S&P is going to a new record high.
3. No Position. The market is at a bifurcation point and a position will be taken long or short when direction is determined. The short term, medium term and long term trends are down. The short term trend is close to turning up.
4. Long from near the low. The short term trend is up. The medium and long term trends are down.
5. No position. Sentiment is very bearish and odds favor a swing up to a new record high from this area or lower.
6. 17% long this month after selling out near the high. Will be buying in equal amounts each month from July to November. Sometime this year, the Fed will point to weakness in housing, the labor market, retail sales, etc., and quickly lower rates to zero and start record QE.
7. No position. The main trend is down. The short term trend is up. The downtrend will resume from here. Confirmation is required before taking a short position.
8. Long from near the low. The S&P will be up for a few weeks before the downtrend resumes. Target is 4400.

What stands out to me is that 4 of the 8 are fully long while none are short. If this is representative of what is going on in the market, any break in the market could result in a lot of selling pressure.
There was some selling pressure after I posted this, but not to a new low. Despite some scary down drafts, this crew was right, as usual. Update below:

1. Long from a lower level (than where the market presently is). The S&P is going to 5000.
2. There will be a pullback from the 4150 area. It's not clear whether his long term position has changed.
3. No position. The medium term trend has turned up. The long term trend is still down. Waiting for a pullback to go long. No shorts until the medium term trend turns down.
4. Long from 3950. The medium term trend has turned up. The long term trend is still down.
5. Long from lower levels. The sentiment is still bearish enough to favor a swing to new all time highs.
6. 35% long. The bear market is probably over. The Fed is talking tough on interest rates but printing huge amounts of money.
7. No position. The main trend is down. The medium term trend has turned up. The short term trend is down. The downtrend will resume from here. Confirmation is required before taking a short position.
8. Still long from near the low. The S&P will get to 4200+ but not 4400 (as originally stated). There will be a big, fast reversal (down) in August.

1, 2, 5 and 6 have a bullish bias. 8 has a bearish bias. 3, 4 and 7 are unbiased, aligning their trades with their rules based trend systems.

Based on these positions, I think at least a pullback is likely this month. There should a bounce in the market on a first move down to about 3950 or 3900. Selling could accelerate below about 3850 on the S&P.
Yes, I'm looking for something the closest to 8 as well. We are going to start our first moves down next week some time. Then increased selling pressure as you say.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I am overweighting the opinion of number 8 because he is the only dyed in the wool bear that I know of who has survived this long bull market intact. I'm underweighting the traders who have a bullish bias because though they are not bullish all the time and they trade both sides they have not been tested in the same way number 8 has. Number 1 and number 2 were both long way too early during the 2020 panic and I think unjustifiably so.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:51 am
I am overweighting the opinion of number 8 because he is the only dyed in the wool bear that I know of who has survived this long bull market intact. I'm underweighting the traders who have a bullish bias because though they are not bullish all the time and they trade both sides they have not been tested in the same way number 8 has. Number 1 and number 2 were both long way too early during the 2020 panic and I think unjustifiably so.
Cool. Who is #4 or 8? I see those as solid ... I don't think it gets even as high as 4400, but maybe it will this week, just a guess.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:17 am
Cool. Who is #4 or 8? I see those as solid ... I don't think it gets even as high as 4400, but maybe it will this week, just a guess.
4 is tradingtheline.com
8 is Atilla Demiray via Twitter
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:07 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:17 am
Cool. Who is #4 or 8? I see those as solid ... I don't think it gets even as high as 4400, but maybe it will this week, just a guess.
4 is tradingtheline.com
8 is Atilla Demiray via Twitter
Thank you.

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA10sdV5

Evil.
Democrats have lost thier minds.
They have crossed over to Hell.

Into Septemeber it is evident.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Kolanovic Says It's Time To Shift Away From Stocks To Commodities

thread: lightswitch

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9SjMGoXlJo never seen before

As for this current swamp crew in charge they will go down in history as the most incompetent
fools since the writing on the wall crew.
The smartest guys in the room are taking 30 days off to go hiking in the wilderness.
It's all about fools and mindless fools.

aeden
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Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »


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