John,
The page title of your most recent article reads 'The Economic Outlook for 2009.'
Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
Thanks for the correction.Matt1989 wrote:John,
The page title of your most recent article reads 'The Economic Outlook for 2009.'
John
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
Stuck in a Turn
Because they’re dealing with hypothesis regarding the behaviors of huge populations and geographic areas, researchers and theorists like Mr. Xenakis and Strauss & Howe and others must, of necessity, present the result of their endeavors at the macro level and so must choose certain years to denote the end of one generation and the beginning of another. As we know, of course, it’s only possible to make an approximate delineation from one generation to the next. There isn’t really a distinct break. That being said, I’ve been considering what one might call “niche generational dynamics”, consisting of the people who make up the transition from one generation to another.
As an example, the people born in the United States between 1959 and 1963 may fit this supposition.
U.S. Live Births per the National Bureau of Economic Research:
1959 4,244,796 -1960 4,257,850 - 1961 4,268,326 - 1962 4,167,362 -1963 4,096,020
Due to the timing of their birth, these 20+ million people were too young to have participated in the immense Boomer movement into middle and upper echelons of management and societal institutions as the Silent and GI Generation were handing over the reins. Subsequently, they were too old to have participated as the X-ers advanced as the new and eager enabling staff and “hucksters” for the Boomers.
For want of a better designation, I’ve been calling these 20 million tardy Boomers the “Children of Camelot”, (with apologies to the actual Kennedy children) since their births coincided with the JFK era.
This niche group consists of people who as toddlers and young children sat between their parents (Silents) and grandparents (GI Generation) as they watched the older boomers rebel, experiment, and riot on the television, in the news papers, and in person. They heard the misgivings, worries, and outright anger of the parents and grandparents at the outrageous behavior, ideas, dress, and demands of the older Boomers. Grounded in the teachings of their elders, and privy to watching their reactions to the Boomers rebelling against their mores, this group to date and for the most part has not rebelled or excelled like the older Boomers and X’ers, but trudged along, trying to find their place. A good example of these folks would in fact be the children of JFK, RFK, and EMK. Dutifully following along the prescribed course of prep schools, college, and then law or other post graduate endeavors, they reached adult hood only to find that they seemed to have no place in the world, and so they run for office or participate in or lead other social organizations (Best Buddies International, Natural Resources Defense Council, Robin Hood Foundation, River Keepers & etc.) In fact, I wonder if this is a reason why President Obama was a community organizer. Not because of the color of his skin, nor the vagaries of his birth or upbringing, but because there was simply no place for him due to the timing of his arrival in America’s generational continuum.
By the time Generation X was cognizant of the world at large and their parents and grandparents reaction to it, society had already absorbed and become somewhat accustomed to the upheavals of government and culture occurring. Gen X heard little protest or misgivings from their by now acclimated parents and grandparents, and so they rightfully thought the behavior and demands of older Boomers par for the course. The vanguard of the Boomers, in concert with the vanguard of Gen X, created the miasma we’re working through, and I wonder now if it will be the overlooked “Children of Camelot” to bring some wisdom, direction, and support for the Millennials, since they were privy to both the old and new ways and mores. For example, tardy members of the previous Nomad Generation (b. late 1890's & after) wrote the bulk of the SEC laws (1933-34-40) that were instrumental in helping American finance get back on keel, and commanded and staffed the machinery of government and the military to help the Hero generation do what they had to do.
Because they’re dealing with hypothesis regarding the behaviors of huge populations and geographic areas, researchers and theorists like Mr. Xenakis and Strauss & Howe and others must, of necessity, present the result of their endeavors at the macro level and so must choose certain years to denote the end of one generation and the beginning of another. As we know, of course, it’s only possible to make an approximate delineation from one generation to the next. There isn’t really a distinct break. That being said, I’ve been considering what one might call “niche generational dynamics”, consisting of the people who make up the transition from one generation to another.
As an example, the people born in the United States between 1959 and 1963 may fit this supposition.
U.S. Live Births per the National Bureau of Economic Research:
1959 4,244,796 -1960 4,257,850 - 1961 4,268,326 - 1962 4,167,362 -1963 4,096,020
Due to the timing of their birth, these 20+ million people were too young to have participated in the immense Boomer movement into middle and upper echelons of management and societal institutions as the Silent and GI Generation were handing over the reins. Subsequently, they were too old to have participated as the X-ers advanced as the new and eager enabling staff and “hucksters” for the Boomers.
For want of a better designation, I’ve been calling these 20 million tardy Boomers the “Children of Camelot”, (with apologies to the actual Kennedy children) since their births coincided with the JFK era.
This niche group consists of people who as toddlers and young children sat between their parents (Silents) and grandparents (GI Generation) as they watched the older boomers rebel, experiment, and riot on the television, in the news papers, and in person. They heard the misgivings, worries, and outright anger of the parents and grandparents at the outrageous behavior, ideas, dress, and demands of the older Boomers. Grounded in the teachings of their elders, and privy to watching their reactions to the Boomers rebelling against their mores, this group to date and for the most part has not rebelled or excelled like the older Boomers and X’ers, but trudged along, trying to find their place. A good example of these folks would in fact be the children of JFK, RFK, and EMK. Dutifully following along the prescribed course of prep schools, college, and then law or other post graduate endeavors, they reached adult hood only to find that they seemed to have no place in the world, and so they run for office or participate in or lead other social organizations (Best Buddies International, Natural Resources Defense Council, Robin Hood Foundation, River Keepers & etc.) In fact, I wonder if this is a reason why President Obama was a community organizer. Not because of the color of his skin, nor the vagaries of his birth or upbringing, but because there was simply no place for him due to the timing of his arrival in America’s generational continuum.
By the time Generation X was cognizant of the world at large and their parents and grandparents reaction to it, society had already absorbed and become somewhat accustomed to the upheavals of government and culture occurring. Gen X heard little protest or misgivings from their by now acclimated parents and grandparents, and so they rightfully thought the behavior and demands of older Boomers par for the course. The vanguard of the Boomers, in concert with the vanguard of Gen X, created the miasma we’re working through, and I wonder now if it will be the overlooked “Children of Camelot” to bring some wisdom, direction, and support for the Millennials, since they were privy to both the old and new ways and mores. For example, tardy members of the previous Nomad Generation (b. late 1890's & after) wrote the bulk of the SEC laws (1933-34-40) that were instrumental in helping American finance get back on keel, and commanded and staffed the machinery of government and the military to help the Hero generation do what they had to do.
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
See the following articles for a discussion of this group:reviresco wrote:Stuck in a Turn
As an example, the people born in the United States between 1959 and 1963 may fit this supposition.
** Neil Howe calls Early Gen-Xers the 'dumbest generation'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 10#e081210
** 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 08#e081208
John
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
Thank you John, great couple of articles.
It seems the premise is sound.
Of note by Howe:
"they have performed the worst on standardized exams, acquired the fewest educational degrees and been the least attracted to professional careers"
To this I would answer that as young children they watched the Kennedy's killed, MLK killed, looked up at young men dressed in their greens going by on buses being shipped off to Vietnam (a confusing cause for the adults, and so for the children). The riots in Watts and Harlem, the Moonshots, Watergate, Woodstock, the great Blackout of '65, all upheaval, some good, some bad, none of which would have benefited from advanced degrees or professional designations in being able to handle. The ability to glide through or past a situation on the fly, to survive and recreate a modicum of normalcy for you and yours was proven more valuable.
You'll forgive me if I favor "Children of Camelot" over "The Dumbest Generation" for the niche.
It seems the premise is sound.
Of note by Howe:
"they have performed the worst on standardized exams, acquired the fewest educational degrees and been the least attracted to professional careers"
To this I would answer that as young children they watched the Kennedy's killed, MLK killed, looked up at young men dressed in their greens going by on buses being shipped off to Vietnam (a confusing cause for the adults, and so for the children). The riots in Watts and Harlem, the Moonshots, Watergate, Woodstock, the great Blackout of '65, all upheaval, some good, some bad, none of which would have benefited from advanced degrees or professional designations in being able to handle. The ability to glide through or past a situation on the fly, to survive and recreate a modicum of normalcy for you and yours was proven more valuable.
You'll forgive me if I favor "Children of Camelot" over "The Dumbest Generation" for the niche.
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
I don't think that any of those reasons had anything to do with it,reviresco wrote: > Of note by Howe: "they have performed the worst on standardized
> exams, acquired the fewest educational degrees and been the least
> attracted to professional careers"
> To this I would answer that as young children they watched the
> Kennedy's killed, MLK killed, looked up at young men dressed in
> their greens going by on buses being shipped off to Vietnam (a
> confusing cause for the adults, and so for the children). The
> riots in Watts and Harlem, the Moonshots, Watergate, Woodstock,
> the great Blackout of '65, all upheaval, some good, some bad, none
> of which would have benefited from advanced degrees or
> professional designations in being able to handle. The ability to
> glide through or past a situation on the fly, to survive and
> recreate a modicum of normalcy for you and yours was proven more
> valuable.
however. There are wars all the time, there are political scandals
all the time, and there are a few electrical blackouts every year.
We had Katrina a few years ago, but I don't believe that anyone is
claiming that Katrina will cause kids to perform poorly on
standardized exams.
What's unique about 1959-63 is that it's the time that the first wave
of Boomers were out and about making themselves heard. Their mothers
had survived the massive starvation and homelessness of the Great
Depression, and then watched their brothers, uncles and dads get
tortured on the Bataan Death March and get slaughtered on the beaches
of Normandy.
So these mothers showered their newborn babies with love, affection,
tons of attention, listened to their every problem, and gave them
anything they wanted. By the early 1960s, all of this had worn off,
and babies born at that time were painfully aware that they had none
of the advantages that their older brothers, sisters and cousins had
enjoyed.
Sincerely,
John
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
So, I was reading in the international posts about the various faults that still exist and how they could re-erupt in the next crisis war, particularly with Russia and the Caucasus and between France, England and Britain. I thought of posting this there, but it seemed more relevant to this topic.
It's fairly obvious how conflicts can start these bitter rifts, and how re-fighting them can make them deeper. What I'm wondering is, what does it take to heal such rifts? If conflicts start and exacerbate then, what, if anything, alleviates or removes them? And, are there any historic examples of this occurring (I think I read something about Japan and the US being one).
I do remember reading on of John's articles on Polya's Urn as a statistical showing of how the events immediately after a Crisis affect the rift. I'm wondering if you could elaborate more in terms of how that might play out in a real-life situation, or how it has in the past (I think this is where the Japan-US relation came from). And even though the upcoming crisis war is unpredictable, is there a way to spin a scenario to get an idea of how that might turn out in the future?
I guess I'm just curious about the overall nature of these rifts too, since they seem to be an underlying cause of who fights who when and why during Crisis eras.
It's fairly obvious how conflicts can start these bitter rifts, and how re-fighting them can make them deeper. What I'm wondering is, what does it take to heal such rifts? If conflicts start and exacerbate then, what, if anything, alleviates or removes them? And, are there any historic examples of this occurring (I think I read something about Japan and the US being one).
I do remember reading on of John's articles on Polya's Urn as a statistical showing of how the events immediately after a Crisis affect the rift. I'm wondering if you could elaborate more in terms of how that might play out in a real-life situation, or how it has in the past (I think this is where the Japan-US relation came from). And even though the upcoming crisis war is unpredictable, is there a way to spin a scenario to get an idea of how that might turn out in the future?
I guess I'm just curious about the overall nature of these rifts too, since they seem to be an underlying cause of who fights who when and why during Crisis eras.
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
One obvious example is the American Civil War. Why wasn't there aCenturon wrote: > So, I was reading in the international posts about the various
> faults that still exist and how they could re-erupt in the next
> crisis war, particularly with Russia and the Caucasus and between
> France, England and Britain. I thought of posting this there, but
> it seemed more relevant to this topic.
> It's fairly obvious how conflicts can start these bitter rifts,
> and how re-fighting them can make them deeper. What I'm wondering
> is, what does it take to heal such rifts? If conflicts start and
> exacerbate then, what, if anything, alleviates or removes them?
> And, are there any historic examples of this occurring (I think I
> read something about Japan and the US being one).
Civil War II?
Pólya's Urn is a conceptual tool that aids in doing GenerationalCenturon wrote: > I do remember reading on of John's articles on Polya's Urn as a
> statistical showing of how the events immediately after a Crisis
> affect the rift. I'm wondering if you could elaborate more in
> terms of how that might play out in a real-life situation, or how
> it has in the past (I think this is where the Japan-US relation
> came from). And even though the upcoming crisis war is
> unpredictable, is there a way to spin a scenario to get an idea of
> how that might turn out in the future?
Dynamics forecasts.
** Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... cast090503
Essentially what Pólya's Urn says is that if things start off bad,
then they'll probably get worse, and if they start off good, then
they'll probably get better.
I suppose that a good modern example would be the Mideast situation.
There was the Oslo accord in 1994, there was the Roadmap to peace in
2003, there are Obama's continuing peace attempts. These are all
"green balls," but all of this fails because the number of "red
balls" continues to pile up.
If you'd really like to learn this stuff, then I would suggest thatCenturon wrote: > I guess I'm just curious about the overall nature of these rifts
> too, since they seem to be an underlying cause of who fights who
> when and why during Crisis eras.
you pick a time and a country and do a generational timeline
yourself. There are plenty of examples on the web log for you to use
as guides.
John
Re: Generational Crises and Methods for Evaluation
John, congratulations on the award from CSC. It's always good to have some professional recognition for hard work.
Crisis wars in ancient China and Egypt
-- Crisis wars in ancient China and Egypt
A couple of weeks ago, I quoted a lengthy message from a German
student named Martin Lutes.
** A student at Mannheim University evaluates and endorses Generational Dynamics
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 4#e100314c
Lutes said that he had "researched the most obscure events nobody ever
heard off, occurring in nations nobody ever heard of, trying to find a
contradiction or a hole in your theory but I couldn´t manage to find a
single thing, even the German literary epochs fit in."
I asked him if he could send me some information about the research he
did, and he sent me the following lists of crisis wars in ancient
China and Egypt:
Some day, someone may be able to put together a list of tens of
thousands of crisis wars in all known times and places throughout
history. That would contribute a great deal to our understanding of
the history of the world.
John
A couple of weeks ago, I quoted a lengthy message from a German
student named Martin Lutes.
** A student at Mannheim University evaluates and endorses Generational Dynamics
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 4#e100314c
Lutes said that he had "researched the most obscure events nobody ever
heard off, occurring in nations nobody ever heard of, trying to find a
contradiction or a hole in your theory but I couldn´t manage to find a
single thing, even the German literary epochs fit in."
I asked him if he could send me some information about the research he
did, and he sent me the following lists of crisis wars in ancient
China and Egypt:
This list is useful because this information is very hard to get.Martin Lutes wrote: China
Yellow Turban Rebellion 184-204
War of the Eight Princes 291-306
Qin Empire vs Han Empire 373-383
Champa war 446-450
Ly Bon civil war 536
Invasion of Lam Ap 605-606
Chinese War against the Turks 657-659
Chinese War with Nanchao 751-770
Crisis wars in ancient egypt
New Kingdom
1530-1525 BC - civil war between Thebans and the Hyksos
1456-1435 war fought against the Mitanni, the Phoenicians and several other minor civilizations. Largest empire of Egypt.
~1350~1345 civil war, egyptian empire shrinks significantly. Major pandemic.
~1280-1260 repeated invasion and conquest of several territories, lost in the previous crisis-period.
1208-1190 war fought against invading Lybians and the “Sea People”
~1140-1130 collapse of the Egyptian Empire, due to invasion by the “Sea People”
Third Intermediate Period
1077-1070 Split in upper and lower egypt due to civil war (?)
980-970 sack of gezer
925 Shoshenq I invading palestine
853 Battle of Qarqar
Some day, someone may be able to put together a list of tens of
thousands of crisis wars in all known times and places throughout
history. That would contribute a great deal to our understanding of
the history of the world.
John
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