Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote="JULLIEN1"]
> Dear John,

> I believe the French presidential election will interest you a lot
> because the realignment predicted by the Generational dynamics
> theory is occurring:

> 1°) the still governing for three weeks Socialist Party is
> disintegrating and its candidate Benoît Hamon is predicted to get
> less than 10%. Imagine Hillary Clinton (or more accurately a
> nobody) running the last US presidential election with just the
> support of a rump Democratic party,

> 2°) Marine Le Pen is predicted to be qualified for the second
> round but lose it. However, in June there will be general
> elections which may become more interesting than the presidential
> as the Front National may benefit from the collapse of one of the
> two major political parties (either the Socialist or the
> "gaullist" [i.e conservative], perhaps both),

> 3°) a victory of Jean-Luc Mélenchon may seem unlikely but the
> resurrection of a strong anti-capitalist Left is no less
> interesting than the resurrection of French nationalism: President
> Mélenchon would by the simple effect of being elected ensure a
> collapse of the Euro and threaten the European project. Even if he
> is not elected, the collapse of the Socialist party will - as odd
> as it may seem for Americans -create a more socialist French and
> European Left (a really anti-capitalist Left).

> 4°) even the victory of Emmanuel Macron would have big
> consequences for French and UE governance: it would be a kind of
> [i]union sacrée[/i] for saving the European project,

> 5°) the last but not the least : if the second round oppose
> Mélenchon to Marine, expect crazy things.[/quote]

Thank you for posting that. It's great information, and as you says
it shows what a dramatic realignment is going on in France.

I wonder how much Thursday's shooting is going to affect
the elections.

Dear John,

I believe the French presidential election will interest you a lot because the realignment predicted by the Generational dynamics theory is occurring:
1°) the still governing for three weeks Socialist Party is disintegrating and its candidate Benoît Hamon is predicted to get less than 10%. Imagine Hillary Clinton (or more accurately a nobody) running the last US presidential election with just the support of a rump Democratic party,
2°) Marine Le Pen is predicted to be qualified for the second round but lose it. However, in June there will be general elections which may become more interesting than the presidential as the Front National may benefit from the collapse of one of the two major political parties (either the Socialist or the "gaullist" [i.e conservative], perhaps both),
3°) a victory of Jean-Luc Mélenchon may seem unlikely but the resurrection of a strong anti-capitalist Left is no less interesting than the resurrection of French nationalism: President Mélenchon would by the simple effect of being elected ensure a collapse of the Euro and threaten the European project. Even if he is not elected, the collapse of the Socialist party will - as odd as it may seem for Americans -create a more socialist French and European Left (a really anti-capitalist Left).
4°) even the victory of Emmanuel Macron would have big consequences for French and UE governance: it would be a kind of [i]union sacrée[/i] for saving the European project,
5°) the last but not the least : if the second round oppose Mélenchon to Marine, expect crazy things.

20-Apr-17 World View -- EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections


The threat to the 'European project'

[i][url=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170420.htm#e170420]** 20-Apr-17 World View -- EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections[/url]
** [url]http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170420.htm#e170420[/url][/i]



Contents:
EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections
Marine Le Pen fights accusations of anti-Semitism
The threat to the 'European project'


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, France, Marine Le Pen, Front National,
François Hollande, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Donald Trump, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May,
Vel d'Hiv, Auschwitz, Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism,
European Project, La Belle Époque