by NoOneImportant » Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:33 pm
The loss of the Ukraine is a fait accompli, the best the Ukrainians may hope for is to bloody the Russians, as the Finns did immediately prior to WWII, or establish an ongoing resistance. The real question for the future is what is NATO doing? Or perhaps even more importantly, what is NATO not doing? The absence of any preparatory action on NATO's part simply invites the next aggressive move on Russia's part. Almost as important as NATO's actions are perhaps the actions of China while the world is distracted by Putin/Russia in the west?
The Obama visit to Saudi Arabia is a telling event, whereas Obama should be visiting Kiev in the Ukraine if he desires peace, he is instead visiting the already alienated Saudis - Mr., international, Day-Late, and a Dollar-Short, OJT diplomat - perhaps he can show the Saudi king his Nobel Peace Prize. The Saudis are so alienated by the US that they, and the Pakistanis released a flurry of press releases in the last half of January 2014 regarding their - Saudi - intent to procure both Al-Khelid
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... t-2000.htm main battle tank, and JF-17 fighter aircraft.
Whether this purchase comes to pass is yet to be seen, as the Saudis have a significant investment in, high performance fighters, and recently - mid February, 2014 - inked a 5.5 billion deal for 72 of Eurofighter's dual engined, low radar cross section, fly-by-wire Typhoon aircraft -
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bae-syste ... ector.html. While the Pakistani hardware is less than state-of-the-art in both cases, the considered purchase if executed, indicates a willingness on the Saudi's part to create a long term supply relationship between the two countries, as both the tank, and the aircraft (the JF-17 is 1/2 - 1/3 the cost of an F-16) require extensive logistical support to remain viable. For every billion in acquisition, additional billions are necessary for training, and weapons system maintenance.
Essentially, even considering the Pakistani equipment, illustrates the depth of the Saudi discontent with Washington, and at its most basic level it conveys that the Saudis do not trust the US/Obama, and that said they certainly trust none of Obama's minions. Further it may be interpreted to mean that the US standing, in the Saudi mind, has degenerated to the point that the US can't even solicit a visit from the Saudi head of state - in that context Obama appears in Riyadh, hat in hand, apparently believing that he can schmooze reality away. Bad developments all.
From a GD perspective the Saudi/Pakistani arms negotiations brings the Saudis into a much closer military relationship with the Sunni Pakistanis, and their corresponding ally the PLA of Red China - while ostensibly the Saudi/Pakistani arms negotiations are about tanks and airplanes, the real Saudi interest lies in countering Shite Iran's emerging nuclear capability, and that is what Saudi Arabia really wants to purchase from Pakistan - ready made nukes. While Pakistani nuclear weapons may be currently beyond Saudi reach, a single Iranian nuclear test might alter that restraint on the part of the Pakistanis. And the Saudis meet with a President who thinks that diplomacy is the equivalent of "foreign campaigning," just smiling and lying.
The loss of the Ukraine is a fait accompli, the best the Ukrainians may hope for is to bloody the Russians, as the Finns did immediately prior to WWII, or establish an ongoing resistance. The real question for the future is what is NATO doing? Or perhaps even more importantly, what is NATO not doing? The absence of any preparatory action on NATO's part simply invites the next aggressive move on Russia's part. Almost as important as NATO's actions are perhaps the actions of China while the world is distracted by Putin/Russia in the west?
The Obama visit to Saudi Arabia is a telling event, whereas Obama should be visiting Kiev in the Ukraine if he desires peace, he is instead visiting the already alienated Saudis - Mr., international, Day-Late, and a Dollar-Short, OJT diplomat - perhaps he can show the Saudi king his Nobel Peace Prize. The Saudis are so alienated by the US that they, and the Pakistanis released a flurry of press releases in the last half of January 2014 regarding their - Saudi - intent to procure both Al-Khelid http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/pakistan/mbt-2000.htm main battle tank, and JF-17 fighter aircraft.
Whether this purchase comes to pass is yet to be seen, as the Saudis have a significant investment in, high performance fighters, and recently - mid February, 2014 - inked a 5.5 billion deal for 72 of Eurofighter's dual engined, low radar cross section, fly-by-wire Typhoon aircraft - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bae-systems-agrees-pricing-saudi-eurofighter-deal-115829072--sector.html. While the Pakistani hardware is less than state-of-the-art in both cases, the considered purchase if executed, indicates a willingness on the Saudi's part to create a long term supply relationship between the two countries, as both the tank, and the aircraft (the JF-17 is 1/2 - 1/3 the cost of an F-16) require extensive logistical support to remain viable. For every billion in acquisition, additional billions are necessary for training, and weapons system maintenance.
Essentially, even considering the Pakistani equipment, illustrates the depth of the Saudi discontent with Washington, and at its most basic level it conveys that the Saudis do not trust the US/Obama, and that said they certainly trust none of Obama's minions. Further it may be interpreted to mean that the US standing, in the Saudi mind, has degenerated to the point that the US can't even solicit a visit from the Saudi head of state - in that context Obama appears in Riyadh, hat in hand, apparently believing that he can schmooze reality away. Bad developments all.
From a GD perspective the Saudi/Pakistani arms negotiations brings the Saudis into a much closer military relationship with the Sunni Pakistanis, and their corresponding ally the PLA of Red China - while ostensibly the Saudi/Pakistani arms negotiations are about tanks and airplanes, the real Saudi interest lies in countering Shite Iran's emerging nuclear capability, and that is what Saudi Arabia really wants to purchase from Pakistan - ready made nukes. While Pakistani nuclear weapons may be currently beyond Saudi reach, a single Iranian nuclear test might alter that restraint on the part of the Pakistanis. And the Saudis meet with a President who thinks that diplomacy is the equivalent of "foreign campaigning," just smiling and lying.