Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Sat Oct 03, 2026 6:57 pm

The trend has shifted from a steep decline to a slow, fragile stabilization:
Demand Decline: Global oil demand has been trending downward. In early-to-mid 2026, demand fell significantly—reaching a nadir around May—due to soaring prices and supply shortages, particularly in China and Japan. McKinsey
Gradual Recovery: Recent data suggests the steepest declines are over. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that the annual decline in demand narrowed from 4.9 million b/d in Q2 2026 to 3.4 million b/d in Q3 2026,
with projections that demand may return to growth by late 2026 or early 2027. iea.org
Sector-Specific Losses: Consumption losses have been concentrated in middle distillates (such as diesel) and petrochemical feedstocks, specifically across Asia, as geopolitical disruptions in the Gulf and attacks on Russian refineries severely constrained the flow of refined products. iea.org
Inventory Depletion: To balance the gap between falling production (due to the Strait of Hormuz closure) and remaining demand, the market has relied on massive inventory draws. Global observed inventories plunged by 95 million barrels in August alone, contributing to a cumulative draw of over 500 million barrels since February. iea.org

A suspected arson attack on Easter Island created a wildfire that caused "irreparable" damage to some of its famous stone-carved monumental heads, authorities have said.

You are correct as imbeciles outpace those willing to remove the rate of change.
Propaganda works since they are educated idiots.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sat Oct 03, 2026 6:15 pm

aedens wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2026 4:59 pm The map was forwarded from T.
* Amazon is mimicking Enron's playbook, in plain sight of regulators *
The data center buildout reminds me more of Easter Island than anything else.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Sat Oct 03, 2026 4:59 pm

The map was forwarded from T.
* Amazon is mimicking Enron's playbook, in plain sight of regulators *

They have zero zero zero excuse not to clean that up.
We covered before as Orphan Structures and yes we where correct.

Rate spike as noted was sand bags for fin sector.
Numbers net actually value added was Alcohol on unwary Hookers.
Fully Hedged will absolve those who never fought the Tape.
We have not added more shorts as we prepare for march sweeps which matter to
our commodity crushed view only so the issue as before will be them pissing on the recency bias map as before.
Less that two percent in sata and yea long and short and twenty five percent cash for now.
May just watch the Uniparty Village Idiots who are fully funded as the Kafir French Fry.
Intel was they are Torching law emforcement as the usual suspects have a crisis hand wringing contest.

thread: amos, taproot

I have very little doubt, too, that for the majority of my readers the earliest times and those immediately succeeding,
will possess little attraction; they will hurry on to these modern days in which the might of a long paramount nation is wasting by internal decay.
Livy, History of Rome

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sat Oct 03, 2026 2:18 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2026 3:10 pm I did the last 7% last week and am 100% in triple inverse. The 10 year has been up to multi year highs the past 2 days, climbing more today, but not over 5.3%. Meantime, some are explaining why that is not a problem. If the stock market collapses, then some will explain why it is a problem after the fact.
Now I'm all in with the investment accounts. As the market holds or climbs I will be adding some fresh cash and putting it directly into triple inverse. I added some yesterday. Due to the interest rate rise, the triple inverse is returning about 5 percent per year with average volatility at a constant market.

Now let's do some math. This is ideal and just for illustration. If the S&P loses 98 percent of its value at a constant 1 percent daily loss, this is 0.99 raised to the 389th power. Therefore, the triple inverse would increase by 1.03 to the 389th power, or about 98,000 fold.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sat Oct 03, 2026 2:16 pm

This is the Archdruid's response to a question.
“To say that the economic empire of hallucinated wealth will continue to exist, though, does not imply that it will continue to produce the goods and services and provide the jobs that people need.”

How far do you think things can go before the money economy outright collapses? Even with all the gimmicks and financial sorcery, surely it must be hit with reality eventually, right? Or perhaps it can sustain itself indefinitely as the real economy withers until political upheaval arises to destroy it?
Nephite, the money economy can outlast nearly all of the real economy. It’s quite possible that the stock market will hit all time highs on the day that the power goes out in Manhattan forever and armed raiders cross the George Washington Bridge in search of loot and slaughter.
https://ecosophia.net/economics-halluci ... revisited/

This is sentiment, which is based on imagination. The only basis it has in reality is the rear view mirror which is always what creates the conditions for positive imagination-based sentiment. That being sentiment is most positive at tops and sometimes bottoms. At the gold bottom in 2001, people imagined gold would be mined from sea water for about $10 per ounce. Forget about doing the calculations based on real world constraints.

Circling back to what Hugo Salinas Price said about imagination vs reality, it's possible for imagination to break from reality for a time or, in this case, for a long time. But stock markets do have to have a basis in reality with respect to earnings (and their growth) and interest rates.

Earnings have to come from somewhere. They can be counterfeited for a time and they were. That game is pretty much over (see next paragraph). The last gasps are things like the $1,000 Trump Accounts which probably have to be invested into stocks, the purpose of which would be to keep the bubble moving until midterms, I suppose. They can be stolen from the private market for a time and they still are, but that game is winding down because stolen money must have a source from the real economy which eventually becomes a destitute real economy the more that gets stolen out of it. They can be faked for a time and they still are. But the Enrons and WorldComs of the world always get exposed by somebody and that reality based fact hasn't changed either. There are multitudinous discussions occurring right now about OpenAI being a fraud. If the stock market drops due to an interest rate rise or some other reason those discussions will probably gather momentum.

If the 10 year breaks higher to 6 percent and more, no, the stock market will not grow to the sky no matter how much that may be ingrained in someone's imagination. I'm not saying the 10 year will do that, just that interest rates form a basis of reality for what the stock market can do and, obviously the Fed can't hold interest rates down forever without popping the inflation genie out of the bottle.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Fri Oct 02, 2026 7:11 pm

Erasure numbers are in on the wasting.
The Lipstick period has not relented.

Nothing but B1 smoke.
Masquerading as data.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIiy09C1xN8&t=50s
The Radical Republicans were the political faction within the Republican Party originating from the party's founding in 1854
six years before the Civil War until the Compromise of 1877. Now your Uniparty thieves still acting like your different than
the East India Company. By the way Canada is simply not even a memory. Just road kill baking in the Sun.
Marxist Slaves at best.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Wed Sep 30, 2026 8:52 pm

Wed Jul 22, 2026 7:51 pm
Data points populated as free cash flow will sort the dregs sooner then later.
Food and Energy sweeps as the arrogated managers asked one actual expert
what substance are you on. The conceit was typical as Hayek described. The three decade analyst
smiled at the "Corporate" antagonism projection.
As for now the occupied space LLM is what we forwarded as even into wheel chairs they
will go arrogated as cognitive dissonance as H had presented a sound structured view in the Maintenance
phase and descending preferences of action items labeled non productive assets also labeled jail breaks.
For now into the September reference date we monitor the effect as trading volume and open interest have migrated entirely to
September, while the August contract sees negligible activity as it approaches its final trading days prior to physical delivery obligations.
Not to put a bias imprint into this entertainment as crack spreads and demand destruction from inflation targeting.
To put simply data fragility and lethargic preferences in transfer costs for descending into the terms H has described.
They are running cover for dismissals based on projection profiles they already had.

Oxen could endure lack of water during a desert crossing; it was the dust that killed them. Oracle Capital input losses unmentioned.
The Oxen died from overdrinking after crossing Forty-mile Desert.
The lone remaining steer and team of cows towed then to survive that trip.

Update note we already forwarded: Ai actual cost basis as we listed they are way over ninety percent
behind and will not recover into token value added.

The supply-siders will blame "supply shocks" or high taxes for the recession,
Austrians will point to prior monetary inflation and malinvestment as Customer preferences
since they are underwater. Statist will do what they do. Tax since that is what Inflation is.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
The cascading maps are repeating. Failure. CEO Looting.

The goal is total information asymmetric warfare. You will linger in data fragility as they decline.
The recent energy map expansion for the Pacific will collapse when the level two and level three consumers base
choose abject failure. That is the Uniparty marching orders. Failure and yes they ignored the correct Rosa Koire into the Abys and destitution of
complete stupidity in Collectivism. The Politics of Envy but that would suggest thought maps as the Pretense of Knowledge is sealed.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 29, 2026 10:43 am

While everyone buzzes about AI, it's my guess that this is the most important chart in the world right now.

Image

For the why, I'll just requote Hugo Salinas Price. In fact, I want to requote everything he said which I transcribed from his 2013 interview with King World News because I think it will apply if what he said about interest rates comes to pass soon.

Summary:
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:09 pm
Mexican billionaire Hugo Salinas Price in a 10 minute interview. He also thinks the rise in interest rates is the key.
  • The rise in interest rates signals the beginning of the end of the world financial system.
  • The people in power today are barbarians. They do not understand how civilization came into being and what is required to keep it going. They are comparable to monkeys flying an airplane.
  • There are no true elites in charge today with the exception of Vladimir Putin. The rest of the world leaders have a level of learning and morals equivalent to the masses.
  • The interest rate derivatives will set off a crisis that will bankrupt the world financial system. The only thing left standing will be gold. Many people will not survive.
On the rise in interest rates:
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:49 am
I think that we're going to see eventually a series of bankruptcies. And I think that the rise in the interest rate is probably the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis that is going to bring down the derivatives system. There is something like a quadrillion of derivatives and most of them are interest rate derivatives. The spiking of the interest rate in the United States may set that off. And I think that what is going to happen in the world is that eventually we're going to come to a moment where there's going to be massive bankruptcies around the world and what is going to be left when the dust settles is gold and some people are going to have it and some people are not. And then the problem will be to hold onto what you've got. Because it's not going to be a very pleasant world. That's what I see coming, my friend.
--Hugo Salinas Price (transcribed from the link above)

"In 1987 Ricardo succeeded his father Hugo Salinas Price as CEO of Grupo Elektra. He is the fourth richest person in Mexico behind Carlos Slim Helu and the 34th richest person in the world with a wealth of around US $17.4 billion in 2012."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardo_Salinas_Pliego
Other Comments from Hugo Salinas Price:
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:49 am
And he was talking about the appearance on the world stage of individuals, and he was speaking to the growth of the population and the appearance of new individuals coming into the mass of humanity, and these individuals evidently are barbarians. They came too suddenly to be educated and for the knowledge of how to keep the Western way of life alive. And so these people have increased and now they have taken over power and so now we're in the hands of barbarians. They have no idea of how our society came to be and what is necessary to keep it going. And they're fiddling with the controls. You might think of a monkey flying a 747. They have no idea what they are doing and this is not going to end well with the barbarians at the controls.
We don't have people with a true background of education in history and economics and politics. They're all working on the spur of the moment. They're experimenting to see if this works and see if that works and I really have very serious doubts about the survival of our civilization under such people. I rather expect that a great crisis is coming when the grain will be sifted from the chaff. We're going to see a great separation. Some people are just not going to make it and the old truths are going to come back into fashion because of the need for survival.
The elites are really not elites. They're just as vulgar as the mass. We do not have elites anymore. The elites are really in their attitude and in their behavior they are not elites, they are mass. An elite does not just consent to anything, you know. An elite has his values and his firm convictions. He is striving for something better which he may not be able to achieve but at least he is making an attempt. We don't have anybody attempting anything. Nobody wants to risk anything.
We don't have an elite and I don't see an elite anywhere. Well, there's one guy who I consider to be elite and who is it? Vladimir Putin. There's a man who's got some backbone at least. But I don't see anybody else on the world stage.
And I think that's something that we need in the world. We can't just go on this way but we are going on this way and we shall go on, continue on this way.
--Hugo Salinas Price (transcribed from the link above)

"In 1987 Ricardo succeeded his father Hugo Salinas Price as CEO of Grupo Elektra. He is the fourth richest person in Mexico behind Carlos Slim Helu and the 34th richest person in the world with a wealth of around US $17.4 billion in 2012."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardo_Salinas_Pliego
The link to the interview is broken but this article summarizing the interview is still available:

https://kingworldnews.com/multi-billion ... ilization/

Another Interview:

https://guillermobarba.com/billionaire- ... terview-2/

Quote from that Interview:
In another of your articles (“When Reality overthrows imagination”), you state that at no time in history has the human kind lived in this real, physically tangible world, relying so much on the human brain’s capacity for imagination. Is this a problem that affects lives of human beings? Do they rely too much on technology and erroneous economy theories? Why?

Imagination is a wonderful and beneficent ability of the human brain, no doubt. But imagination must find an anchor in Reality. If we have no anchor, we are adrift in a world of dreams. That is our world today, a Dream World, based on fictitious money which is now being created without any limit. See Japan’s fantastic plans to create vast, astronomical sums of fiat money to get out of an economic funk. We must have imagination, yes, but anchored in Reality, not in fantastic dreams. We are dreaming ourselves into a very real Hell, thanks to imaginary money, which is what we are forced to use – all money in banks is only imaginary money.

The world is enamored of Technology and thinks that the great triumphs of technology are sufficient for us to affirm in all confidence that technology can solve human problems. But the problem is that technology deals with the physical universe, which is subject to predictable responses. The sphere of human action is not amenable to technology, because humans have free will, which atoms do not have. It appears that our so-called “Economists” today forget this fact. They want to “manage” us to prosperity, forgetting that we have free-will and will inevitably frustrate their plans for us. But, they will go on attempting to “manage” us until we collapse into a new Dark Age. That is what lies ahead for humanity, unless….. you fill in the dots.

Thanks for your time and answers Mr. Salinas.
The words I've used is they will "print" us into a new dark age whereas Hugo Salinas Price says they will "manage" us into a new dark age.

Similar Comments from Others:
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:21 pm
As a civilization declines, it becomes barbaric. Before the savages invade it from the outside, its own people have become savages. They enthusiastically welcome the savages. They are drawn to the culture and norms of the savages because these echo their own descent into barbarism.
http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2017/08 ... ation.html

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 29, 2026 12:00 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2026 11:26 am Bernanke was a drunken gambler and this is the result. Not my predicted result. Much worse.

So if AI told me, no, it's not really an adjunct because AI is now the economy, well...
A.I. buildout is becoming biggest economic bet in U.S. history: research

Jocelyn Fiset
Thu, September 24, 2026 at 6:53 PM CDT 2 min read

KTLA's David Lazarus said that sounds pretty exciting until you realize that much of this building is funded by borrowed money, and that makes the economy unusually vulnerable to any economic reversals, such as multi-billion dollar loans going unpaid.

Simply said, both the U.S. and financial markets are now reliant on A.I.'s rapid expansion, and any stumbles could lead to a recession or worse.
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/artic ... 57580.html
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2026 1:05 pm What does that mean? Well, what it means is that GDP gets cut by 2/3 and the stock market falls (as much as) 98%.

The psychopaths who control the system won't dial that extent in when they start the process.
It starts to slowly dawn on the psychopaths that they're screwed and at first they dial in a really bad recession.
Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:10 pm It's starting to look like a massive misallocation of capital.

One thing I repeatedly observe is people today, both individually and as a group, reach too far. Their expectations are too high.
I had no idea how far they would try to reach and just how high their expectations would go. I didn't have a clue.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jul 22, 2012 10:56 am The Pretence of Knowledge

Friedrich August von Hayek
Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 11, 1974
In fact, in the case discussed, the very measures which the dominant "macro-economic" theory has recommended as a remedy for unemployment, namely the increase of aggregate demand, have become a cause of a very extensive misallocation of resources which is likely to make later large-scale unemployment inevitable. The continuous injection of additional amounts of money at points of the economic system where it creates a temporary demand which must cease when the increase of the quantity of money stops or slows down, together with the expectation of a continuing rise of prices, draws labour and other resources into employments which can last only so long as the increase of the quantity of money continues at the same rate - or perhaps even only so long as it continues to accelerate at a given rate. What this policy has produced is not so much a level of employment that could not have been brought about in other ways, as a distribution of employment which cannot be indefinitely maintained and which after some time can be maintained only by a rate of inflation which would rapidly lead to a disorganisation of all economic activity. The fact is that by a mistaken theoretical view we have been led into a precarious position in which we cannot prevent substantial unemployment from re-appearing; not because, as this view is sometimes misrepresented, this unemployment is deliberately brought about as a means to combat inflation, but because it is now bound to occur as a deeply regrettable but inescapable consequence of the mistaken policies of the past as soon as inflation ceases to accelerate.
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/ ... cture.html

I'm aware of the Austrian point of view but haven't extensively studied the writings. But in doing some research this morning and reading Hayek's speech, there is similarity to this speech and my own thoughts at this time as recorded here in recent days. What Hayek is saying here is obvious. If I can understand this, do the likes of Krugman, Bernanke, and Yellen really not understand it?
No, they did not and they do not...as the new dark age tightens its grip.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Mon Sep 28, 2026 2:38 pm

We have become extraordinarily practiced at looking at a dead child and asking first what his or her mother was going through. And abortion taught us how to do that. For decades, the defense of abortion has depended on shifting the moral center of the story away from the human being who dies and toward the human being experiencing the crisis. The mother’s suffering becomes the justification.
Johnson argued that culture has spent more than 50 years training itself to begin with a mother’s fear, financial stress, lack of support or depression until the child’s humanity nearly disappears—first in abortion and now in cases like this one.
https://www.lifenews.com/2026/09/16/hol ... -on-day-1/

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