Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Expand view Topic review: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Wed Oct 28, 2026 6:17 pm

Numbers match your inclinations H.
Excuses will match the rate of the increased wasting.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Oct 28, 2026 3:33 pm

The magnates of the Gilded Age railroad boom had an average birth year of about 1825. According to Strauss and Howe the reactive Nomad archetype was years 1822 to 1842.

The top 6 current magnates of the tech boom have an average birth year of 1972. The current Nomad archetype is 1961 to 1981.

Depending how someone wants to look at that, we are somewhere in the equivalent of the 1880s from a generational standpoint.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Oct 28, 2026 2:22 pm

Forbes 400 list of Richest Americans

1982 (First List)
A net worth of $75 million secured a spot on the list. The 1982 list represented 2.8% of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States.

2026
A net worth of $4.4 billion secured a spot on the list. The 2026 list represented 25% of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States.


It should be noted that this figure compares net worth to yearly GDP, which are different but useful for comparison over time. $75 million in 1982 dollars is about $258 million in 2026 dollars.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Oct 28, 2026 12:10 pm

Big Picture of Where We Have Come and Where We Are Going

Western Civilization peaked between 1913 and 1971. Coincidentally or not, with the formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and the shutting of the international gold window in 1971. Europe in the first part of the century, then the US in the 1960s. Europe's peak and the reasons for it are given in The Proud Tower by Barbara Tuchman. After World War II, the US peaked and probably the seminal achievement during that peak was putting a man on the moon.

Starting in 1971 or so, Western Civilization, led by the US, entered the maintenance phase of a declining civilization which lasted until approximately 2011. During the maintenance phase, all the surpluses and buffers built up over centuries were spent, mostly wasted.

Once those buffers were wasted, the Federal Reserve, with the enthusiastic support of a corrupt ruling class, began a program of counterfeiting money, euphemistically called such names as "MMT" and "Quantitative Easing" which used the dollar reserve system to distribute fake electronic money to the rest of the world in an acceleration of exchange for their shoddy goods and shoddy "talent". This marked the beginning of the new dark age.

Next around the corner is the acceleration into the new dark age as the worldwide financial system slowly obliterates with nothing of significance to supersede it. Slowly in that it may take 20 years to reach a temporary bottom. No relief in sight except for the mirages seen by those prone to hallucinations.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Oct 28, 2026 10:48 am

The picture below shows black soldier fly larvae doing their work on yard and kitchen waste about 4 inches from the top of the compost pile. The "pile" is in a below ground pit. Further below everything is already decomposed. It takes maybe a month to decompose everything. The black soldier flies find the compost and do everything on their own. I don't have to do anything except minimally maintain the pile so they can find it and do their thing. I pour a couple gallons of urine on it every so often.

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Oct 27, 2026 1:30 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2026 12:28 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2026 12:20 pm
"This report shows that rebuilding soil health is one of the few measures that can improve nutrient density, yields and climate resilience all at once, and farmers can do it profitably today.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 63325.html
Not as easy as they make it sound.

We had 100 plus degree temperatures every day for about 6 weeks as I was working on getting a fall crop started. I experimented with some different soil combinations, all of which were good by nutritional standards. However, they were drastically different as far as ability of the plants to withstand heat and drought. Once the weather broke about a week ago, everything took off; the soil type didn't matter. In fact, the soil that seemed to perform worst in the heat seemed to perform best once the weather broke.

Today the winds are gusting to close to 30 mph so this is not a good time to post pictures. I'll try to post some when the winds die down.
I want to do a follow-up on this as it seems like an appropriate time.

The main idea is the learning curve regarding local gardening conditions is long. This is an example of what may be faced in the coming dark age.

At the bottom I will post 4 photos.

The first is of a typical tomato plant that was planted in local blackland prairie clay soil amended with some organic matter which was mostly cover crops of hard red wheat. These plants survived the hundred plus degree heat wave, all of them except 1 - 14 out of 15.

The second is a picture of the soil.

The third is a picture of a group of tomato plants grown in what might most resemble black forest soil- heavily amended with compost as is often recommended (and rightly so under most conditions in my opinion). In that area only 1 plant in 4 survived the heat wave. The plants struggled mightily, but 3 eventually curled up and died. Those 3 were replanted with backups after the heat broke. The heat wave broke maybe 3 weeks ago and since then these plants have really taken off.

The fourth photo shows this black dirt. The photos don't show the contrast between the plants and the soil to the extent that it appears out in the field.

The main takeaway is that over 2 years after starting this project I still don't know which group of plants will produce better for this fall season harvest. The answer may well be that it depends on the date of our first killing freeze. We didn't do a fall planting last year; thus the "over 2 years" overstates it compared to if I had been more on top of the project.

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Mon Oct 26, 2026 1:02 pm

Microsoft offers mass buyouts for roughly a quarter of its workforce

Oct. 26, 2026 at 8:30 am Updated Oct. 26, 2026 at 9:39 am
By Alex Halverson
Seattle Times business reporter

Microsoft is offering buyouts to about 60,000 employees, or roughly a quarter of its workforce, as the company tries to control its head count while avoiding layoffs.

The Redmond-based tech giant announced Monday morning that eligible employees at the vice president level and below in the U.S., Canada, India and the United Kingdom would receive a “voluntary exit offer” of a standard severance package, based on their location. They’ll have until early December to decide.

In a memo to employees, Microsoft Chief People Officer Amy Coleman said the move was building off the voluntary retirement program earlier this year, which was available to more than 8,700 U.S.-based employees, roughly one-third of whom took the offer.
“The Voluntary Exit Offer is new for us. We’ll learn from it,” Coleman wrote on Monday. “At the same time, we’ll keep helping people focus on the work that matters most, build new skills and, where it makes sense, find new opportunities across Microsoft.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/m ... subscriber

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by tim » Mon Oct 26, 2026 10:23 am

https://mises.org/mises-wire/when-paul- ... -economics
When Paul Krugman Won the Nobel for Economics
Eighteen years ago this week, Paul Krugman was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Ostensibly, he won it “for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity,” but most likely he received it because he had spent the previous eight years attacking the George W. Bush administration from his perch as a New York Times columnist, as Bush was rather unpopular with a majority of Europeans.

For that matter, Barack Obama would receive the revered Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, less than a year after occupying the White House. His main qualification was that he was not Bush. (None of this is an endorsement of the Bush presidency, which by any measurement was an unmitigated disaster).

A few hours after reading the announcement of Krugman’s prize, Forbes Online asked me to write a brief article commenting on the decision to award Krugman, giving me about 30 minutes to produce it. What followed was “Krugman In Wonderland.”

Krugman In Wonderland

Today’s announcement that Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize in economics, although not earth shattering, indicates that outright political partisanship is not a deterrent to winning. This is not as tragic a moment in western civilization as the sacking of Constantinople in 1453 or the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, but it suffices as one of those sad moments we will regret over time.

The committee that chose Krugman cited his “trade” theories that once made him famous for actually doing economics. (Krugman contends that nations can create comparative advantages by subsidizing certain industries, something the ancients once called Mercantilism.) However, Krugman has become a well-known public intellectual not because of his work on trade, but because of his twice-weekly op-ed column in The New York Times, where outright partisanship is substituted for economic analysis.

Paul Krugman is an unabashed liberal, and there is no crime in an economist having such persuasions. For that matter, many economists have a bit of that streak, too. Furthermore, many of us are in agreement that some of the economic policies of the Bush administration have been bad, if not downright disastrous.

However, the agreements end where Krugman begins to view U.S. economic history from a distorted lens, one in which all administrations run by Democrats are Good and Virtuous, and all Republican administrations are governed by Beelzebub himself. For example, Krugman has laid literally all of the recent financial meltdowns on free markets and deregulation, which he claims were the products of right-wing ideology and compliant Republican administrations.

This is a curious view of history. Until reading Krugman, I had no idea that Jimmy Carter and his economic guru, Alfred Kahn, were conservative Republicans. Carter and Kahn allegedly thought of themselves as liberal Democrats, and I even remember seeing Carter running for president on the Democratic ticket.

Yes, many of the major deregulation efforts came through the Carter administration, although Krugman apparently denies all of that. Carter’s administration deregulated airlines and pushed through huge banking reforms as the highly regulated New Deal financial cartel imploded amidst inflation and the inability of that system to be able to finance many of the upcoming high-tech industries.

The Carter administration also began the deregulation of the price control system for oil and gasoline and set into motion the deregulation apparatus for trucking, railroads and telecommunications. In fact, Ronald Reagan received the endorsement of the Teamsters Union only after he promised to delay trucking deregulation. I also remember hearing Lester Thurow at a lecture in 1984 calling for massive deregulation of financial services and the end to anti-trust law and an end to the Glass-Steagall Act. Thurow, Kahn and Carter were not ideological conservatives, and they certainly were not Republicans, but Krugman simply airbrushes that fact to give us his own wonderland.

In Krugman’s world, ideological right-wingers took a meat axe to the carefully planned, stable New Deal economic structures of finance, telecommunications, transportation and manufacturing and created an unstable mess in which greed overruled good sense. Going even farther, Krugman has called for a reinstatement of the New Deal or at least another set of legislative initiatives like the New Deal.

Given that the first New Deal ensured double-digit unemployment until the end of 1941, one would think competent economists would not support laws that restrict output, criminalize entrepreneurship, and keep unemployment levels in the stratosphere. It would seem that an economic recovery would require increasing output and employment, but who are we economists on the outside of the Nobel circle to question the wisdom of a Nobel laureate?

As for the current economic turmoil in financial markets, Krugman offers outright socialism as the cure but also continues to peddle the snake oil that the Bush administration is beholden to free-market ideology. Praising the near-nationalization of British banks by the government, Krugman writes:

It’s hard to avoid the sense that Mr. Paulson’s initial response was distorted by ideology. Remember, he works for an administration whose philosophy of government can be summed up as ‘private good, public bad,’ which must have made it hard to face up to the need for partial government ownership of the financial sector.
Remember, Krugman is describing a government that is looking to take equity positions in banks and businesses, and whose central bank, the Federal Reserve System, pretty much owns AIG . And there is that little $700 billion bond issue to buy worthless securities (something Krugman endorsed).

Thus, Krugman believes the problem is that the Bush administration is not socialist enough, which makes it ideologically “free market.” If Obama is elected and Krugman receives a high position in his administration, we shall see if Krugman becomes the first commissar who makes socialism work. I’ll be betting against him.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Sun Oct 25, 2026 4:58 pm

This is the correct route in the effects. They will look for exact date and deny the cycles that have already converged.
I am still reading reading into the 1914 effect that consumed them from intent. The depth of views was instructional as is yours H
as to foster the stronger base into the augmentation of its actual character. They are 400 years behind the 5 period of spacing that
put them in this position. One thing is certain when they implemented the plan. Two out the Three would not survive to claim
the "promise" so raise the retirement date when fungible zone money has already moved.
The money center mechanism is still a useful way to frame it, with one correction it wasn’t just also transfer fees draining money.
In 1914 fears triggered a scramble for liquidity. Advanced ass covering as it was clearly illustrated shortly ago.
Banks called in loans, sold securities, and demanded gold as moving gold and settling international debts became harder and riskier
as credit tightened across interconnected markets.

London is especially well documented into this effect as the Bank of England’s rate rose from 3% to 4%, then 8%, then 10% between
July 30 and August 1. New York also faced rising rates and gold outflows. Meanwhile, gold convertibility was suspended in Russia on
July 27, Germany on August 4, and France on August 5. Those suspensions show how quickly the normal cross-border settlement system broke down.

The indication are close enough and will read your timeline.

One point to forward is that it didn’t wish to establish that spreads were pocketed, as shouldn’t have implied it.
The evidence I cited supports that pension reserves were invested in public debt and later used heavily for wartime loans
not who captured the returns or whether private parties profited from a spread.

That would mirror your Conservative who stopped by being a Democrat.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sun Oct 25, 2026 2:46 pm

This is not a complete analysis by any means and I'm too lazy to do one. But I'd remiss not to at least add something along these lines.

How will a generational stock market panic per the fourth turning theory of Strauss and Howe be different now that the world has entered a new dark age?

AI Overview

A generational stock market panic occurring today differs fundamentally from the classic 1929 model outlined in William Strauss and Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning due to modern structural, technological, and geopolitical shifts.

1. Central Bank Backstops and Liquidity Interventions

The 1929 Precedent: The Federal Reserve and government stood largely passive during the initial free-fall, allowing bank failures and deflation to run unchecked into a multi-year depression.

The Modern Dynamic: Central banks and regulatory agencies now operate with rapid-response liquidity tools, standing facilities, and direct market-stabilization playbooks. Instead of a clean, unmitigated cash-liquidity freeze, a modern panic is immediately met with massive intervention, turning a sharp free-fall into a managed or prolonged grinding devaluation, or shifting the damage into sticky, structural inflation rather than classic deflation.

2. Algorithmic Velocity and Retail-Led Coordination

The 1929 Precedent: Information moved via ticker tape, newspapers, and physical bank runs where depositors physically lined up outside brick-and-mortar institutions.

The Modern Dynamic: Trading is executed at microsecond speeds by algorithms, amplified by round-the-clock digital media and decentralized retail movements. Contagion spreads globally across asset classes in minutes rather than days, and collective digital action (such as coordinated retail hedging or meme-stock dynamics) can produce wild, non-linear volatility that defies traditional institutional control.

3. The K-Shaped Economy and High Valuations

The 1929 Precedent: The market crash hit an economy with lower baseline debt-to-GDP ratios and a less financialized everyday populace, though leverage among speculators was high.

The Modern Dynamic: Neil Howe and contemporary analysts note that today’s Fourth Turning enters with extreme asset valuations and a heavily K-shaped economy, where a narrow slice of mega-cap tech and wealthy households drive the bulk of consumption. A generational panic today threatens not just equity portfolios, but highly leveraged pension systems, sovereign debt loads ($37 trillion in the U.S.), and real estate markets tied directly to everyday retirement security.

4. Fragmentation vs. National Consensus

The 1929 Precedent: The Fourth Turning of the 1930s and 1940s culminated in a unified national mobilization (the New Deal and World War II) that forged a strong sense of collective public purpose.

The Modern Dynamic: Instead of rallying around centralized institutions, the current era is marked by deep polarization, regional/tribal divides, and a fragmented global order. A modern financial panic is less likely to yield a clean, unified patriotic re-founding and more likely to accelerate institutional distrust, regional economic secessionism, or geopolitical decoupling rather than a tidy systemic reset.
Something should have been said about supply chains. That's the elephant in the room.

Also, the generational panic in the context of a new dark age will not be cleansing. It will kick off an accelerating decline that will last for a couple decades before a bottom is reached. Number 4 describes that a little bit but not enough in my opinion.

The era of energy intensive and energy wasting fiat-obtained free rides for the few will come to a close.

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