Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 08, 2026 3:14 pm

Perhaps not coincidentally, in a way that us humans don't understand, as the US entered the maintenance phase of a declining civilization around the year 1971 or so, email was invented by Ray Tomlinson that same year. God bless Mr Tomlinson.

Now email has become a major source of Stacking, workplace and otherwise.

Many people are "onboarded" via emails to their personal inbox on their own time, etc., etc. A few years ago, the average office worker spent about 2.5 hours per day checking and responding to an average of 121 emails per day, much of it outside normal working hours. Nowadays, it is anecdotally reported that the same workers receive 200-300 emails per day.
Here are 10 startling statistics about email use:

[*]Statistics show that the average office worker receives 121 emails per day.
[*]The average number of emails sent and received each day keeps rising. Last year emails averaged around 281 billion per day. By 2023, we can expect an increase to 347 billion per day.
[*]By 2023, the number of email users worldwide will reach 4.4 billion. That’s up almost 16% from 3.8 billion users last year.
[*]Most people check their email at least once a day. 19% check emails as soon as they hit the inbox.
[*]49% of US employees check their work email every few hours while they’re off duty.
[*]9% of US workers constantly check work email outside of working hours.
[*]55.6% of email users read their emails on a mobile device.
[*]A Michigan State University study reveals that the overuse of email hinders leadership ability in managers.
[*]Employees spend more than 90 minutes per day recovering from email interruptions.
[*]About 14.5 billion spam emails are sent per day. Loss in productivity because of spam costs businesses around $20.5 billion a year.
https://nexalearning.com/six-startling- ... email-use/

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 08, 2026 2:20 pm

Prior to last week, I've never discussed Stacking specifically here, but there's hardly a week that goes by where I don't read or hear about an example.

Last weekend, I was having a conversation with a man who is a Licensed Vocational Nurse (LVN) in what is supposed to be a post-acute rehab facility. This type of facility is where people with brain injuries from mishaps like accidents and strokes are rehabilitated. Basically the idea is for them to come in in wheelchairs and walk out some months later.

So what he was telling me in the big picture is the client base entering this facility is getting sicker. He gave 2 reasons for that. The first is that the typical patient who is post-acute is sicker than even 2 years ago, with more chronic conditions. So someone in their 50s might come into the facility with a brain injury due to stroke, but at the same time, has severe gout, rheumatoid arthritis and diabetes (an actual example he gave). The second is that insurance companies want to discharge sub-acute patients into post-acute facilities before they are ready in order to save money. They would then just sit in the post-acute facility for awhile without doing any rehab until they are ready for rehab even though the post-acute facility doesn't specialize in their care. He said a skilled nursing facility would be more appropriate for those patients. I hope I got all of that straight because I know nothing about it.

Anyway, the bottom line is that his responsibilities and risks have increased due to Stacking.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 08, 2026 12:33 pm

Key Points

Warren Buffett recently warned investors that a "gambling mood" is driving the stock market today.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savinga ... 01fc9&ei=8

In a lottery economy driven by Federal Reserve counterfeiting, that's what happens. But the extent to which the Federal Reserve has been successful in prolonging the "gambling mood" is the real surprise to me. I think the great extent of the delusion is one important factor will set the stage for a severe dark age rather than just a run of the mill crisis and depression. Rather than great suffering as was seen in the Great Depression, my guess is that billions will die. It seems like, to the Baby Boomers, creating bubbles was all fun and games. They didn't really seem to take their responsibilities seriously.
Buffett, now 95, stepped down as Berkshire's CEO last year, but he recently shared a grim warning with investors during a CNBC interview. "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." Buffett also said traders were treating the stock market like a casino.
I think this time really is different and not in a good way.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 08, 2026 12:18 pm

In a sweeping cultural shift, the fabled American work ethic may be getting sidelined in the quest for easy money.

For generations, Americans built wealth through accumulated skill and earned experience, the kind of success that didn’t rely on shortcuts. Now, 72 percent of Americans either have a side hustle or are considering one, with many chasing returns from crypto, prediction markets, or AI content.

Why?

Consumer prices climbed more than 20 percent from 2020 to 2024, outpacing wage growth for most Americans and widening the distance between effort and reward. Pew Research found that just 39 percent of Americans under 30 believe the so-called American Dream is still achievable through their own ambition. The rise of zero-fee platforms like Robinhood and prediction markets like Polymarket has made the potential for big paydays possible—if the bets pay off.

There’s a mechanism driving this shift that rarely gets named directly: survivorship bias. That’s the psychological mechanism where we draw conclusions about something using only a few successful examples (the survivors) while ignoring the failures (which usually outnumber the survivors).

Today, the get-rich-quick stories that circulate on social media are the survivors. And they’re rewriting how millions of people think about effort, risk, and wealth.

That distortion matters to every leader and entrepreneur, because it shapes who’s entering the workforce, what they expect from careers, and how they evaluate building something versus betting on something.

The Dream That Changed

The American Dream has always carried a clear logic: effort connects to reward. Its roots run through the Declaration of Independence and the work ethic that defined early American culture. And for much of the last two centuries, the contract felt real enough to head west to the gold rush, take loans out to go to college, or drop out of school to launch a startup.

The number of Millennials who say the dream is out of reach has quadrupled, from 9 percent in 2017 to 35 percent in 2024, according to the American Enterprise Institute.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbu ... e8f96&ei=9

Let's break a few of the sentences in the above article down.
Pew Research found that just 39 percent of Americans under 30 believe the so-called American Dream is still achievable through their own ambition.
Most of the remaining 39 percent are deluding themselves. Their thinking is the equivalent of, "Smoking will just kill that guy over there, but I am invincible." Some of the remaining 39 percent will do well, maybe a quarter of them. Some people smoke all their lives and are almost completely unaffected.
There’s a mechanism driving this shift that rarely gets named directly: survivorship bias. That’s the psychological mechanism where we draw conclusions about something using only a few successful examples (the survivors) while ignoring the failures (which usually outnumber the survivors).

Today, the get-rich-quick stories that circulate on social media are the survivors. And they’re rewriting how millions of people think about effort, risk, and wealth.
It's a lottery economy. It doesn't matter what you are gambling on because it has all devolved to a lottery. Bernanke, when he printed trillions, guaranteed that it would turn into a lottery economy. Now it doesn't matter whether you get a degree from a top university or play the crypto market - it's all gambling.
The American Dream has always carried a clear logic: effort connects to reward.
Effort now connects more to punishment in various ways than to reward. One of ways to inflict punishment on hard working people is through Stacking, which was just discussed.

"So, for example, a supervisor may come to Smith and say, "Smith, this year your goal will be 7 projects instead of 4. Each project will be harder than the ones you did last year and on top of that you will do some training of your replacements, who will get lower pay than you. For the great job you have been doing, you will get a 2 percent raise, less than half of last year's inflation rate." Who hasn't been presented with something like this? What does it mean? Does it mean the economy is getting better and more efficient? Smith, if he understands Stacking properly, will say, "YES, SIR, I will try to do NINE projects, maybe even ELEVEN." Meanwhile, as far as Stacking and the Jenga pile goes, maybe Smith's health will suffer. Maybe he doesn't get cancer yet, but since cancer is a process that takes decades, the stage is set for him to get cancer 30 years down the line instead of 40 or never. Maybe his marriage suffers or his kid goes into the beginning stages of turning into a juvenile delinquent. In other words, fundamental blocks of responsibility are removed from lower in the Jenga pile in an unplanned fashion until on this particular individual basis, the entire pile collapses."

But Stacking is only one way those in authority inflict punishment on hard working people. So why bother?
The number of Millennials who say the dream is out of reach has quadrupled, from 9 percent in 2017 to 35 percent in 2024, according to the American Enterprise Institute.
In 2026, the numbers should be well over 50 percent...as the new dark age tightens its grip.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by vincecate » Mon Jul 06, 2026 7:33 pm

I also think we have an AI bubble that could pop anytime.

http://cate.ai/space/ai.bubble.html

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by vincecate » Sat Jul 04, 2026 10:47 pm

vincecate wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2026 9:08 pm http://cate.ai/misc/ - total of 10 AIs on ai.smart.html topic. Some other topics.
Made it so the question and 11 AI answers are all on one page now: http://cate.ai/misc/ai.smart.html

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Sat Jul 04, 2026 3:10 pm

Book Four open.
Slowly looking as they just are committed reprobates.
Marked to fantasy period appears to run its disease.
It is apparent enough for now.
Pretext: circa Tue May 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Fri Jul 03, 2026 1:32 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2026 4:37 pm It's not that science isn't useful. It's just not useful on balance in the hands of The 97th Percentile.
The Boomerang Workforce

The economic evidence for this limitation is quietly accumulating in boardrooms and balance sheets. Over the past two years, a number of prominent companies made bold announcements about replacing swaths of their workforce with AI. Customer support, content moderation, back-office analysis, and even some coding roles were declared ripe for automation. The logic was seductive: if the model can pass the graduate admissions test, surely it can handle a refund request or a data entry form.

Then came the boomerang. Many of those same companies have had to rehire significant portions of the staff they let go. The reason was not that the AI produced wrong answers in an obvious way; it was that the AI could not handle the specificity of the work. It hallucinated policies that did not exist. It failed to recognize when a customer was escalating toward legal action. It could not learn that the internal software had a quirk that required a workaround. Most damningly, it could not absorb the institutional knowledge that lives only in the heads of veteran employees. The test scores promised general competence, but the job required particular competence, and particular competence can only be grown, not retrieved.
Someone who hasn't worked in an organization that did this and similar things might wonder how these people got put into a capacity to make stupid decisions like these.
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2026 1:11 pm Based on the topics of the last few posts, and since we are talking about a sociological viewpoint which aligns with that of this Dark Age Hovel, it might be useful to bring up a phenomena that I call Stacking.

The point I want to make overall here, is in no way is Stacking an Information Age sociological phenomena.
The answer to that (that being how someone who was stupid enough to lay off a substantial part of their workforce with the intent of replacing them with AI only to have to hire most of them back could be in a position of decision-making authority) is the late Industrial Age sociological phenomenon (singular in this case, I think) "The shit floats to the top."
Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2024 12:54 pm
Image

https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Unite ... -E1991.htm

Probably not much different than the employee reviews of the rest of the S&P 500 companies: management is poor, good managers are run out, but employees are thrown a few crumbs. As one person told me a long time ago regarding a different company, the shit floats to the top.
In a true Information Age, there would be enough information and decision making based on it to put people in positions of authority who wouldn't do stupid things like this. After all, those people do exist in substantial numbers. But we're nowhere near that yet. Before that, "The shit floats to the top," and then comes the new dark age.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Thu Jul 02, 2026 9:20 pm

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... -sa-050626
AI industry is well aware of this gap and has built several patches.
Derp central. AI has been out for years and years and still looting.
One thing is past very clear.
I will forward the date they went actually full retard.
Its like they pulled the linchpin to even survive.
Basically before sticky note uploads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLz-ktBpSIY

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by vincecate » Thu Jul 02, 2026 9:08 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2026 3:39 pm Part of the limitation with AI is that since the world operates at the 97th percentile and that's where AI draws its information from and spits it back out it's difficult for it to advance beyond that level in many instances because it's unable to distinguish. Another part of the limitation seems to be that AI is unable to synthesize complex information and summarize it at any level.
The AI models today are trained for months and then have a frozen set of weights. They don't really learn anything after that (sort of take notes but no adjustments to the weights like humans do). See:

http://cate.ai/misc/claude/ai.smart.html
http://cate.ai/misc/moonshot/ai.smart.html
http://cate.ai/misc/ - total of 10 AIs on ai.smart.html topic. Some other topics.

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