by Trevor » Tue Jan 13, 2026 7:51 pm
If Russia does indeed become our ally, I doubt it'll be until after war has already broken out. Between 1939 and 1941, the Soviets collaborated with the Nazis, planning to split Eastern Europe between them. In fact, if not for Soviet supplies, the German war machine could never have been so successful. Had the USSR chosen to act against them in 1939, Germany could not have launched Barbarossa.
I don't see NATO being an ally. I've been skeptical for a long time and seeing what's happened over Ukraine has made me doubtful they'd do anything once China attacks. Invoking Article V is likely to get a response of: "Screw you, you're on your own!" They'd gotten so used to us being most of the burden that doing it themselves isn't an easy process. It'll take years, if not decades, to establish a truly independent defense industry.
I'm even starting to wonder if this war would look like 1914 and 1939. Russia isn't likely to take much more territory without transitioning to total war, but the energy isn't there among the Russian public. 8% of GDP is about as much as they can muster, and it's still heavily dependent on Chinese components. It's a war they tolerate because they have no other choice, not because this is seen as an existential conflict, however much propaganda tries to convince them. Right now, it's easier to go along because protesting is going to end in death or imprisonment. There's no real threat to Putin's power as things stand, at least so long as the war doesn't hurt those who matter.
There are enough desperate people in Russia willing to take the risks for financial opportunity, and with year-round conscription, they can continue sending cannon fodder. However, this isn't enough unless Ukranian defenders refuse to fight on a large scale. With the kill ratio at roughly 2-1, Ukraine shows no indication of collapse anytime soon, regardless of what Pro-Russian voices are hoping for.
I'm considering the possibility this won't look like the First World War or the Second, because the necessary societal cohesion for total war may not be possible under our current conditions. This can change, of course... but it could end up looking like the Thirty Years' War: a low-intensity world war that lasts a generation. If anything, this would be worse than the alternative because surging nationalism at least allows a society to function. With the Thirty Years' War, all its major participants collapsed into civil war by the end of it, and a war like it would likely do the same to us.
If Russia does indeed become our ally, I doubt it'll be until after war has already broken out. Between 1939 and 1941, the Soviets collaborated with the Nazis, planning to split Eastern Europe between them. In fact, if not for Soviet supplies, the German war machine could never have been so successful. Had the USSR chosen to act against them in 1939, Germany could not have launched Barbarossa.
I don't see NATO being an ally. I've been skeptical for a long time and seeing what's happened over Ukraine has made me doubtful they'd do anything once China attacks. Invoking Article V is likely to get a response of: "Screw you, you're on your own!" They'd gotten so used to us being most of the burden that doing it themselves isn't an easy process. It'll take years, if not decades, to establish a truly independent defense industry.
I'm even starting to wonder if this war would look like 1914 and 1939. Russia isn't likely to take much more territory without transitioning to total war, but the energy isn't there among the Russian public. 8% of GDP is about as much as they can muster, and it's still heavily dependent on Chinese components. It's a war they tolerate because they have no other choice, not because this is seen as an existential conflict, however much propaganda tries to convince them. Right now, it's easier to go along because protesting is going to end in death or imprisonment. There's no real threat to Putin's power as things stand, at least so long as the war doesn't hurt those who matter.
There are enough desperate people in Russia willing to take the risks for financial opportunity, and with year-round conscription, they can continue sending cannon fodder. However, this isn't enough unless Ukranian defenders refuse to fight on a large scale. With the kill ratio at roughly 2-1, Ukraine shows no indication of collapse anytime soon, regardless of what Pro-Russian voices are hoping for.
I'm considering the possibility this won't look like the First World War or the Second, because the necessary societal cohesion for total war may not be possible under our current conditions. This can change, of course... but it could end up looking like the Thirty Years' War: a low-intensity world war that lasts a generation. If anything, this would be worse than the alternative because surging nationalism at least allows a society to function. With the Thirty Years' War, all its major participants collapsed into civil war by the end of it, and a war like it would likely do the same to us.