Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Jan 09, 2026 3:10 pm At this point, we are close enough to collapse that preparing for collapse seems more important than trying to figure out the when and how.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jan 11, 2026 3:18 pm One time, he commented that his friend Buffet would not have done well during prehistoric times by shouting at a predator, "I allocate capital well."

Warren’s success:
- “I was born wired to allocate capital well.” If I was born in Bangladesh and I walked down
the street explaining that “I allocate capital well”, the townspeople would say “get a job”.
- Bill Gates says that if I was born 1000 years ago, I wouldn’t survive because I am not fast or
strong. I would find myself running from a lion screaming “I allocate capital well!!”

“My answer is this: I am still an optimist because I see what innovation accelerated by artificial intelligence will bring.”

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:40 pm Bill Gates and others say this is not like Roman times because of all the great technology we have. To that point, let's talk about some of this great technology and how it relates to the drawdown of the resource. I only see technology that works to draw the resource out faster; for example, irrigation in the Midwest that draws down the aquifers, or fracking that draws down the oil resource. Both of these then allow the renewable resource excess extraction rate to be maintained at a higher level than would otherwise be possible. There does not exist any great technology which is putting water back into aquifers or increasing stores of liquid fuels (unless it depletes the other resources - ethanol for example). Most of the enhancement of soil is done with fossil fuel derived products.

If the above is predictive in any way, though, it will be true that we have a good 10 years to run before food prices and food shortages become a really major issue. Silver and real estate in that town bumped along at pretty low prices for a decade before finally making their major move. This year I grew about 3% of our family's food and my goal for next year is 8%. It may be 10 or 20 more years before many people say that good home grown food is wealth in a way, as in an investment in their family's health and future well being.

SHOCKING: Canada Euthanizes a Young & Healthy 26-Year-Old for 'Depression'

After one physician refused to administer the lethal injection saying he was “too young and healthy” to die, the state ultimately approved his euthanasia anyway.

Canada’s assisted-death regime has crossed another disturbing line.

According to his mother, a 26-year-old man previously rejected for euthanasia by a doctor who deemed him “young and healthy” was later killed through the government’s MAiD program for depression despite family pleas, prior safeguards, and an official ban on euthanasia for mental illness.

Her account raises urgent questions about medical ethics, legal loopholes, and whether vulnerability in modern Canada is now met with care, or with death.

Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades
By Nafeez Ahmed
July 28, 2020

Two theoretical physicists specializing in complex systems conclude that global deforestation due to human activities is on track to trigger the “irreversible collapse” of human civilization within the next two to four decades.

The paper is written by Dr Gerardo Aquino, a research associate at the Alan Turing Institute in London currently working on political, economic and cultural complex system modelling to predict conflicts; along with Professor Mauro Bologna of the Department of Electronic Engineering at the University of Tarapacá in Chile.
Both scientists are career physicists. Aquino has previously conducted research at the Biological Physics Groups at Imperial College, the Max Planck Institute of Complex Systems and the Mathematical Biology group at the University of Surrey.

dominant milankovitch cycle

AI Overview

The dominant Milankovitch cycle driving ice ages has shifted over time, with the ~41,000-year obliquity (axial tilt) cycle dominant for much of the last 2.5 million years, but the ~100,000-year eccentricity (orbital shape) cycle became dominant in the last 800,000 years, influencing glacial periods.

While all three cycles (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) affect incoming solar radiation, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle, linked with precession (~20,000 years), now paces major ice ages, despite the 41,000-year tilt cycle still playing a role.

Key Milankovitch Cycles

Eccentricity (Orbit Shape): Changes Earth's orbit from nearly circular to slightly elliptical over ~100,000 and ~400,000-year cycles, affecting total solar energy received.
Obliquity (Axial Tilt): Varies Earth's axial tilt (related to seasons) every ~41,000 years, altering summer/winter intensity.
Precession (Axial Wobble): Earth's slow wobble changes the timing of seasons relative to its orbit, with cycles around ~19,000-26,000 years (often simplified to ~20,000 years).

Dominance Over Time

Before ~800,000 years ago: The ~41,000-year obliquity cycle seemed to pace ice ages.
Last 800,000 years: The ~100,000-year eccentricity cycle became the primary driver for glacial-interglacial cycles, often working with precession.

Why the Shift? (The 100,000-Year Problem)

While the 41,000-year tilt cycle is strong, the ~100,000-year eccentricity cycle's dominance for the last million years, despite its weaker direct effect, is known as the "100,000-year problem".
The interplay of these cycles, particularly how eccentricity modulates precession's influence on high-latitude summer insolation, drives the larger ice age patterns, notes Skeptical Science.