Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Expand view Topic review: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Thu Nov 05, 2026 5:00 pm

Thu Apr 23, 2009 12:48 am as tl:dr is now official policy. Aplogy is only used when they get caught as
it all circles the drain as designed. You know statute of limitation such as time for felony's.
It was perfected more than not way before with the ravens and swallows on that side and old fashion treason
on this side.

From that time line.
Total government debt will double to 79% of GDP by 2013 - the highest level since the Second World War.

The actual figure depends on the debt measure. For the UK’s commonly cited public-sector net debt, it was roughly 75% of GDP in 2013—below the 79% forecast. The broader general-government gross debt measure was higher, around 85% of GDP.

Close enough as they pondered half-baked ideas to save the skin of this failing government was forwarded.

thread: Classical Annihilation

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 4:50 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2026 2:35 pm The algos will do what they do also which is to mimic the irrational emotional actions of traders, just in a more convoluted way.
Again, some of what I write sounds a little off the wall and it's useful to feed the sentence to AI to see what it finds.
Do algos mimic the irrational emotional actions of traders but just in a more convoluted way?

AI Overview

Yes, algorithmic trading often mimics human irrationality and emotional volatility, but it does so through systemic, mathematical loops rather than actual feelings. While an individual line of code cannot feel "fear" or "greed," algorithms are built by humans, trained on human historical data, and adjusted by stressed human operators. When market panic hits, these factors combine to make algorithms behave exactly like a hyper-rationalized, highly convoluted version of a panicked crowd.

How "Emotionless" Code Becomes Emotionally Volatile

The tech industry sells algorithmic trading as the ultimate cure for human psychological flaws. In reality, human psychology is simply pushed further up the chain of production.

1. Overfitting (The Math Version of "Recency Bias")
The Human Flaw: A trader loses money on three tech stocks, gets spooked, and vows never to trade tech again (recency bias).
The Algo Equivalent: A developer forces an algorithm to match historical data perfectly to ensure it looks flawlessly profitable on paper. This is called overfitting. When the live market changes even slightly, the "perfect" algorithm panics, triggers a cascade of hardcoded stop-losses, and crashes because it cannot handle unpredicted reality.

2. Momentum-Chasing & Cascades (The Math Version of "FOMO")
The Human Flaw: Retail traders see a stock skyrocketing, get Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO), and pile in late.
The Algo Equivalent: Trend-following and high-frequency algorithms are programmed to spot micro-momentum. When a trend triggers their entry parameters, hundreds of massive algorithmic funds simultaneously buy or short the exact same asset. This creates an artificial, feedback-loop snowball that leads to sudden "flash crashes" or massive asset bubbles.

3. Strict Stop-Losses (The Math Version of "Loss Aversion")
The Human Flaw: A trader sees their portfolio drop 5%, panics, and sells everything at the absolute bottom.
The Algo Equivalent: An algorithm has a strict, unyielding risk threshold. If a sudden liquidity blip drops the price past a specific decimal point, the algorithm automatically dumps millions of shares into a falling market. This isn't "emotional panic"—it is a cold calculation that yields the exact same, destructive market result.

The Human "Off-Switch" Problem

The most convoluted aspect of algorithmic trading is that humans still control the master switches.

Scenario The Human Discretionary Trader The Algorithmic Trader
Market Drawdown Panics and manually sells positions at a steep loss out of fear. Panics, loses faith in the system, and manually turns the algorithm off mid-trade.
Winning Streak Becomes overconfident, doubles their risk size, and overleverages. Becomes overconfident, tweak the code to maximize profits, and breaks the risk safety parameters.

Ultimately, algorithms execute orders without a heartbeat, but they are trapped inside a framework dictated by human biases. They do not eliminate irrationality; they just automate it at the speed of light.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 3:53 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:02 am
Barbara Tuchman wrote:
If the sixty years seemed full of brilliance and adventure to a few at the top, to most they were a succession of wayward dangers; of the three galloping evils, pillage, plague, and taxes; of fierce and tragic conflicts, bizarre fates, capricious money, sorcery, betrayals, insurrections, murder, madness, and the downfall of princes; of dwindling labor for the fields, of cleared land reverting to waste; and always the recurring black shadow of pestilence carrying its message of guilt and sin and the hostility of God.

Mankind was not improved by the message. Consciousness of wickedness made behavior worse. Violence threw off restraints. It was a time of default. Rules crumbled, institutions failed in their functions. Knighthood did not protect; the Church, more worldly than spiritual, did not guide the way to God; the towns, once agents of progress and the commonweal, were absorbed in mutual hostilities and divided by class war; the population, depleted by the Black Death, did not recover. The war of England and France and the brigandage it spawned revealed the emptiness of chivalry's military pretensions and the falsity of its moral ones. The schism shook the foundations of the central institution, spreading a deep and pervasive uneasiness. People felt subject to events beyond their control, swept like flotsam at sea, hither and yon in a universe without reason or purpose. They lived through a period which suffered and struggled without visible advance. They longed for remedy, for a revival of faith, for stability and order that never came.

The times were not static. Loss of confidence in the guarantors of order opened the way to demands for change, and miseria gave force to the impulse. The oppressed were no longer enduring but rebelling, although, like the bourgeois who tried to compel reform, they were inadequate, unready, and unequipped for the task. Marcel could not impose good government, neither could the Good Parliament. The Jacques could not overthrow the nobles, the popolo minuto of Florence could not advance their status, the English peasants were betrayed by their King; every working-class insurrection was crushed.

Yet change, as always, was taking place. Wyclif and the protestant movement were the natural consequence of default by the church. Monarchy, centralized government, the national state gained in strength, whether for good or bad. Seaborne enterprise, liberated by the compass, was reaching toward the voyages of discovery that were to burst the confines of Europe and find the New World. Literature from Dante to Chaucer was expressing itself in national languages, ready for the great leap forward in print. In the year Enguerrand de Coucy died, Johan Gutenberg was born, although that in itself marked no turn of the tide. The ills and disorders of the 14th Centruy could not be without consequence. Times were to grow worse over the next fifty-odd years, until at some imperceptible moment, by some mysterious chemistry, energies were refreshed, ideas broke out of the mold of the Middle Ages into new realms, and humanity found itself redirected.
A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century
1978
I'm seeing comments even from the collapsosphere of late that certain of these things can't happen in this day and age. From my perspective mostly they can. Cleared land reverting to waste? What happens when 5,000 acre farms run out of diesel or the machinery breaks down?

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 3:23 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:39 am My mother grew up in a small town in one of the red counties of the upper midwest. edit: Actually, her county is orange. When I was a boy, she told me it takes 2 generations for a newcomer to town to be fully accepted by the people in the town. For anyone making a move to one of these areas, you would be advised to, first of all, understand the culture and, second, to expect that your family will be giving more than you take for a very long time. It's been my experience that some people will spread rumors, and some of those will not be very flattering. It is what it is.
My personal situation is my family lived in that town from the 1860s until my mother left. My father lived in the adjacent town. Both grandparents owned farms. My mother's mother left her 80 acre farm to me (and my sister but I was primarily responsible for it). After my grandfather died at age 98, all the land around that 80 was owned by then by one farmer who had accumulated about 4,000 acres. I sold the 80 to him on the low side of the fair price range. All of that farmland depends on diesel. Once it can no longer run on diesel at that scale (if that happens), then I will be heading back there.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 2:35 pm

If this is the start of the financial crisis, and I have no idea whether it is or not, there's nothing to get excited about with the S&P at 7400 and down 300 points today. Anything over about 1000 on the S&P is all fantasy froth. That will all evaporate with time. The evaporation will be uneven as dip buyers reflexively come in. Those who have been dip buyers have been rewarded since 1987 and they have all the cash. So they will do what they do until they become exhausted and it will take a long while. The algos will do what they do also which is to mimic the irrational emotional actions of traders, just in a more convoluted way. Once the dip buyers become exhausted and the algos go out of business, then the S&P will spend a few more years in the despair phase as it circles the drain to its low that will stand for a few years or maybe even longer.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 1:51 pm

Descent

The descent will be characterised by economic
false dawns. The United States budget and trade
deficits, for example, may occasionally improve,
but they will soon worsen again. These deficits are
intimately connected with other features of the
current order, such as drugs trafficking, welfare
dependency, and the costly protection of American
interests world wide. No one, however determined,
can rationally sort out these problems, whose
interactions are far from fully understood. The
deficits must remain a chronic problem.
The booms that take place during the descent
will be based on much less substance than were
former periods of great growth in the world
economy. The mobile phone, the internet and
computer games will not create eddies upon eddies
of economic organisation in the way that the steam
engine did, or the aeroplane. Economic growth
may occur on paper but there will be fewer real
differences to people’s material standard of living.
It will not deliver tangible utilities like cars,
televisions and foreign holidays. Instead, one of the
big growth industries today is gambling, and it is
questionable how far that can be said to make
people feel better and live better. Similarly, the
internet is certainly a boon, but its overall
contribution to human welfare is mediocre. Giving
people ready access to vast amounts of
pornography hardly compares with the drama of
the industrial revolution.
In future, therefore, to gauge how the descent
is going, one should not be taken in by statistics.
The crucial measure of economic health will be the
evidence of genuine innovation that people
experience in their everyday lives. If some major
new item appears in one’s home, comparable to the
vacuum cleaner, the video recorder, or the
microwave oven, one can assume that the dark age
is getting further away, perhaps by a quarter of a
century or more. On the other hand, one may find it
difficult to identify what is driving the stock
market. One’s own consumption may be of mostly
transient pleasures, and one may worry whether
one’s work is really making a positive contribution
to the commonweal. In that case, the economic
descent will be proceeding unchecked.
THE PHOENIX PRINCIPLE AND THE COMING DARK AGE
Social catastrophes – human progress
3000 BC to AD 3000
Marc Widdowson
Amarna Ltd
Bedford
Copyright © 2001 by Amarna Ltd
First published 2001 by Amarna Ltd, 35a Chaucer Road, Bedford, MK40 2AL, United Kingdom

Page 294

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 1:38 pm

As the world accelerates into the new dark age, the financial crisis should be the first card that comes up. It will be hard to know how things shake out until we are well into that. Right now we can guess which local municipalities and their debts will fare worst but even that is unlikely to tell us much, as I tend to think it will be a total wipeout. You can look at infrastructure because the infrastructure you've got in an area may well be the one you're going to have. Also, the problem with making an assessment during the coming financial crisis, in my opinion anyway, is that it will have no clear end like the 1932 stock market low or something like that. What comes to mind is Jim Kunstler's phrase, "The Long Emergency". When civilization was on the ascent there were 4th turning cleanses. The worst continued to quickly worsen (Galbraith) relatively speaking, then people straightened their acts out and got religion. There will be no such thing this time in my opinion, just a lot of false dawns, then lower lows. In the stock market that will translate into buying the dip all the way down for the next 20 years only for stocks to get crushed again as the dip buyers stare in disbelief as the market loses 70 percent, 89 percent, 92 percent, 95 percent, 98 percent and even more.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by tim » Thu Nov 05, 2026 12:25 pm

It’s hard to speculate what areas will fare better.

I think long term Texas wont do so well being next to Mexico and the entry point for South American caravans.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 05, 2026 11:27 am

tim wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2026 9:54 am Higgy did you ever consider leaving Texas?

Do you think it’s a good location to survive the fourth turning?

Texas is going to have a fault line between the hispanics and whites that will resurface every 80 years.
I talked about that in the early pages of this Dark Age Hovel. What I said at the time (summarizing) was that Texas has a competent state government and that Texas is a good place for me to be until the government at the state level starts to fall apart. As of yesterday, I would say that is starting to happen. It'll take a financial crisis to get that ball moving down the hill. Until this moment, I hadn't checked the stock market and it was up something like 5 in the premarket last I checked. But now I see it is down 184.
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:26 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:14 pm A Dark Age (which the world is now irreversibly entering into)...
Michigan was already in a dark age when I was there in 1979. Wisconsin entered a dark age in the mid 1990s and most of the rest of the upper midwest probably did around that time. Oregon and Washington probably entered a dark age in 2020. California is in a dark age but it's harder to guess when it happened. I've lived in Texas since 2005. Texas still hasn't entered a dark age.
Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:02 pm It was my opinion that the US government was broken beyond repair in 2011 when they failed to control Bernanke. What that meant to me was Donald Trump would not be able to fix it. Ross Perot could have because his bid was prior to 2011. Of course, this is the opinion of one person only and the opinion of one person is not consequential. But that was why I believed that, although it would be good to have Trump in there because that took control away from the people who ran it into the ground, Trump would not be able to fix anything, just speed up or slow down the established downtrend in different areas from where the political establishment was heading. He did a good job of that in my opinion.

Given that there is no functional national government, someone can look to the lower levels and make their decisions based on that. If a functional state government is desired, based on my observation and experience, Texas has one. If a functional state government is not desired, someone can either look to having a functional local government or no functional government at all. I would like to live where there is a functional state government, for now, and have been in Texas for 17 years. Once things go completely to hell in a handbag, I think it would be better to be in a place that has as little government as possible at the state and local level.
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:15 am I'm currently in Texas for reasons discussed in this thread previously. That was a temporary move until the collapse begins in earnest, which I think is happening about now. What I will be doing (it's no secret here) is move to the upper Midwest where my family originally migrated to when they left Europe (both sides). I posted one caution about that a few pages back in this thread (copied below) and discussed some of the reasoning for that (in addition to my particular situation).
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:39 am My mother grew up in a small town in one of the red counties of the upper midwest. edit: Actually, her county is orange. When I was a boy, she told me it takes 2 generations for a newcomer to town to be fully accepted by the people in the town. For anyone making a move to one of these areas, you would be advised to, first of all, understand the culture and, second, to expect that your family will be giving more than you take for a very long time. It's been my experience that some people will spread rumors, and some of those will not be very flattering. It is what it is.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:28 pm This ranking was done about 20 years ago.
Image
As can be seen above, in 2023 I said, "That was a temporary move until the collapse begins in earnest, which I think is happening about now."

Wrong.

Yes, one day the collapse will begin in earnest. Maybe today.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by tim » Thu Nov 05, 2026 9:54 am

Higgy did you ever consider leaving Texas?

Do you think it’s a good location to survive the fourth turning?

Texas is going to have a fault line between the hispanics and whites that will resurface every 80 years.

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