by Higgenbotham » Tue Jun 03, 2025 12:09 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 26, 2025 1:05 pm
Back to this.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 12:49 pm
I've mentioned in these pages that somewhere around 1971, give or take a few years, and it would vary from sector to sector with probably the more complex sectors coming first, that the US entered the maintenance phase of a declining civilization. There was a slow recognition and response to that turning point.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:13 pm
The mix of jobs begins to change and women are able to better do many of the jobs that become prominent during the maintenance and decline phase (like health care and education, which really just serve to milk out the surplus of the civilization before it collapses).
WTF Happened In 1971?
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
While many of the graphs on this site are pertinent and interesting, I want to highlight this one:
Since 1971, the percentage of women who are sole bread winners has more than tripled, from 2 percent to 7 percent. We also know that many, many women now make more than their husbands.
Now Google AI has added its 2 cents.
AI Overview
In the context of the study of societal collapse, the "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" is a concept that describes a stage where a civilization is struggling to sustain its existence and address accumulating problems but is not yet in full collapse.
Key aspects of a maintenance phase in a declining civilization:
Focus on Preservation: Instead of growth and expansion, the primary focus shifts to maintaining existing systems and infrastructure, sometimes to the detriment of needed innovation or adaptation.
Declining Returns on Investment: According to theories like those of Joseph Tainter, as societies become more complex, the benefits derived from increasing complexity may diminish, leading to a state where the costs of maintaining that complexity outweigh the benefits.
Vulnerability to Collapse: At this stage, a society becomes increasingly susceptible to collapse, as the resources and energy required for maintenance may become unsustainable, leaving it vulnerable to internal or external shocks.
Examples from History:
The Mayan Civilization: Some scholars argue that the Classic Maya, while often presented as an example of collapse, experienced a period of reorganization where the political system of Divine Kingship was removed in certain areas, but their culture and language persisted.
The Greenland Norse: These colonists invested heavily in inner-fjord pastures and oversized stone churches, a focus on maintaining their current way of life that, according to some interpretations, hampered their ability to adapt to changing conditions and potentially survive.
The Khmer Empire: This empire, which flourished for centuries, was eventually affected by drought and violent monsoon rains, against a backdrop of a changing climate.
Theories of Societal Collapse:
Complexity Theory (Joseph Tainter): Suggests that societies collapse due to the unsustainable costs of increasing internal complexity.
Five Stages of Empire Model (David Murrin): Describes the stages of empire, including a "decline and legacy" stage where the spending required for maintenance decreases dramatically.
Jared Diamond's Factors: Identifies factors like environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, and withdrawal of support from friendly neighbors as contributing to societal collapse.
General Systems Collapse Theory: Posits that societal collapse results from societal complexity exceeding a sustainable level.
Malthusian Theory: Suggests that population growth can outpace food production, leading to resource scarcity and societal instability.
In essence, the maintenance phase signifies a crucial point in a civilization's trajectory where the balance between maintenance and sustainability becomes a key factor in its future.
AI responses may include mistakes.
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22main ... nt=gws-wiz
That's a big change from where google was a year ago:
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 12:39 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 11:18 pm
Recently, I searched on google for "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" - you know I've used that phrase numerous times.
Today's results are different:
[quote=Higgenbotham post_id=91031 time=1745687115 user_id=100]
Back to this.
[quote=Higgenbotham post_id=86650 time=1713113360 user_id=100]
I've mentioned in these pages that somewhere around 1971, give or take a few years, and it would vary from sector to sector with probably the more complex sectors coming first, that the US entered the maintenance phase of a declining civilization. There was a slow recognition and response to that turning point.[/quote]
[quote=Higgenbotham post_id=48860 time=1576466037 user_id=100]
The mix of jobs begins to change and women are able to better do many of the jobs that become prominent during the maintenance and decline phase (like health care and education, which really just serve to milk out the surplus of the civilization before it collapses).[/quote]
WTF Happened In 1971?
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
While many of the graphs on this site are pertinent and interesting, I want to highlight this one:
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/J4v9tS0s/dual-income-1.jpg[/img]
Since 1971, the percentage of women who are sole bread winners has more than tripled, from 2 percent to 7 percent. We also know that many, many women now make more than their husbands.
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/YCfZ8RMR/img-0540-1-arrow.jpg[/img]
[/quote]
Now Google AI has added its 2 cents.
[quote]AI Overview
In the context of the study of societal collapse, the "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" is a concept that describes a stage where a civilization is struggling to sustain its existence and address accumulating problems but is not yet in full collapse.
Key aspects of a maintenance phase in a declining civilization:
Focus on Preservation: Instead of growth and expansion, the primary focus shifts to maintaining existing systems and infrastructure, sometimes to the detriment of needed innovation or adaptation.
Declining Returns on Investment: According to theories like those of Joseph Tainter, as societies become more complex, the benefits derived from increasing complexity may diminish, leading to a state where the costs of maintaining that complexity outweigh the benefits.
Vulnerability to Collapse: At this stage, a society becomes increasingly susceptible to collapse, as the resources and energy required for maintenance may become unsustainable, leaving it vulnerable to internal or external shocks.
Examples from History:
The Mayan Civilization: Some scholars argue that the Classic Maya, while often presented as an example of collapse, experienced a period of reorganization where the political system of Divine Kingship was removed in certain areas, but their culture and language persisted.
The Greenland Norse: These colonists invested heavily in inner-fjord pastures and oversized stone churches, a focus on maintaining their current way of life that, according to some interpretations, hampered their ability to adapt to changing conditions and potentially survive.
The Khmer Empire: This empire, which flourished for centuries, was eventually affected by drought and violent monsoon rains, against a backdrop of a changing climate.
Theories of Societal Collapse:
Complexity Theory (Joseph Tainter): Suggests that societies collapse due to the unsustainable costs of increasing internal complexity.
Five Stages of Empire Model (David Murrin): Describes the stages of empire, including a "decline and legacy" stage where the spending required for maintenance decreases dramatically.
Jared Diamond's Factors: Identifies factors like environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, and withdrawal of support from friendly neighbors as contributing to societal collapse.
General Systems Collapse Theory: Posits that societal collapse results from societal complexity exceeding a sustainable level.
Malthusian Theory: Suggests that population growth can outpace food production, leading to resource scarcity and societal instability.
In essence, the maintenance phase signifies a crucial point in a civilization's trajectory where the balance between maintenance and sustainability becomes a key factor in its future.
AI responses may include mistakes.[/quote]
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22maintenance+phase+of+a+declining+civilization%22&sca_esv=6cf83e9191071241&source=hp&ei=0Bw_aLTFGcr6kPIP09qp8AQ&iflsig=AOw8s4IAAAAAaD8q4I6fssAClEMrWsC962uGOKfYDkNd&ved=0ahUKEwi07ayr0NWNAxVKPUQIHVNtCk4Q4dUDCA8&oq=%22maintenance+phase+of+a+declining+civilization%22&gs_lp=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_qArIHBTMyLjE1uAegIcIHBzguMjEuMTjIB2o&sclient=gws-wiz
That's a big change from where google was a year ago:
[quote=Higgenbotham post_id=90909 time=1744303179 user_id=100]
[quote=Higgenbotham post_id=87385 time=1717903134 user_id=100]
Recently, I searched on google for "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" - you know I've used that phrase numerous times.
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/yYzLfLGm/Screenshot-2024-06-08-221607.png[/img][/quote]
Today's results are different:
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/WzZJTpWn/Screenshot-2025-04-10-113627.png[/img]
[/quote]