by Navigator » Sun Jun 22, 2025 5:11 pm
No surprise that the Iranians will move to close the Straights of Hormuz. This has always been their big card. It will require a land response, as in landing a division of US Marines. It will also require a large naval response, as part of the Iranian play will be to deploy mines. So the US will have to engage in minesweeping operations along most of the Persian Gulf (not just the Straits). Oh, and we will have to sink anything Iranian that floats (to prevent any kind of "bomb" boat threat to oil tankers. This could mean US Navy protected oil convoys out of the Gulf.
This should have all been foreseeable by military planners, and we should have plans in motion to handle these things. The problem is that it won't be quick. A large amount US Navy assets are going to have to be committed, and this will further dilute their Pacific Ocean presence (further emboldening China)
All of this would have had to have been done at some point. The Iranians would have just gotten stronger if we/Israel had not done this, and I cannot imagine how bad it would be for the Ayatollah to have a nuke. (The analogy is that Hitler would have to be fought at some point. If Britain/France had backed down over Poland, he would have eventually started WW2 from a much stronger position. In 1939, the German Navy had less than 40 operational U-boats. The German Army had fewer and, on average, less effective tanks than the French. The German plan had been to start the war in 1943. At that point, unmolested in a buildup, they may have been unstoppable.)
There is ZERO hope of negotiating with the fanatical Iranian clerics. The literally believe that the "12th Imam" is going to come back from "suspended animation" to save them, no matter what the odds, or how bad their military defeats are. The only way to handle this is to not only kill the head Ayatollah, but a LARGE number of the clerical leadership, and to forcibly remove them from positions of power.
Next point is that only Iranians can really effect regime/culture change in Iran. And, as has been pointed out, a counter-revolution would have to take place. And this can only happen if there is an organized and supplied military resistance. This also requires US land forces along the Iranian coast, so that rebels could be supplied with arms.
BTW, while I am glad that the BBC found a lot of anti-Regime voices in Iran. Hopefully they didn't just find English speakers. The 45 years of Islamic theocracy has certainly embittered the great majority of Iranians. I did read about a government mouthpiece trying to get a soccer crowd in Iran to chant "Death to Israel", and instead they started chanting "Death to Gaza and Hezbollah".
Meanwhile, disruption or even just viable threats to shipping in the Persian Gulf is going to cause MAJOR economic disruption around the globe.
AND, escalation of the conflict in Iran is going to send the Left in the US into hyper-drive. There are going to be large scale anti-war demonstrations. Trump Derangement Syndrome will escalate to anti-Vietnam war levels and beyond. At the same time, we will have a major economic downturn, which will also be blamed on Trump. It will look like the US is actually descending into a civil war. At that point, the Chinese will make their move.
No surprise that the Iranians will move to close the Straights of Hormuz. This has always been their big card. It will require a land response, as in landing a division of US Marines. It will also require a large naval response, as part of the Iranian play will be to deploy mines. So the US will have to engage in minesweeping operations along most of the Persian Gulf (not just the Straits). Oh, and we will have to sink anything Iranian that floats (to prevent any kind of "bomb" boat threat to oil tankers. This could mean US Navy protected oil convoys out of the Gulf.
This should have all been foreseeable by military planners, and we should have plans in motion to handle these things. The problem is that it won't be quick. A large amount US Navy assets are going to have to be committed, and this will further dilute their Pacific Ocean presence (further emboldening China)
All of this would have had to have been done at some point. The Iranians would have just gotten stronger if we/Israel had not done this, and I cannot imagine how bad it would be for the Ayatollah to have a nuke. (The analogy is that Hitler would have to be fought at some point. If Britain/France had backed down over Poland, he would have eventually started WW2 from a much stronger position. In 1939, the German Navy had less than 40 operational U-boats. The German Army had fewer and, on average, less effective tanks than the French. The German plan had been to start the war in 1943. At that point, unmolested in a buildup, they may have been unstoppable.)
There is ZERO hope of negotiating with the fanatical Iranian clerics. The literally believe that the "12th Imam" is going to come back from "suspended animation" to save them, no matter what the odds, or how bad their military defeats are. The only way to handle this is to not only kill the head Ayatollah, but a LARGE number of the clerical leadership, and to forcibly remove them from positions of power.
Next point is that only Iranians can really effect regime/culture change in Iran. And, as has been pointed out, a counter-revolution would have to take place. And this can only happen if there is an organized and supplied military resistance. This also requires US land forces along the Iranian coast, so that rebels could be supplied with arms.
BTW, while I am glad that the BBC found a lot of anti-Regime voices in Iran. Hopefully they didn't just find English speakers. The 45 years of Islamic theocracy has certainly embittered the great majority of Iranians. I did read about a government mouthpiece trying to get a soccer crowd in Iran to chant "Death to Israel", and instead they started chanting "Death to Gaza and Hezbollah".
Meanwhile, disruption or even just viable threats to shipping in the Persian Gulf is going to cause MAJOR economic disruption around the globe.
AND, escalation of the conflict in Iran is going to send the Left in the US into hyper-drive. There are going to be large scale anti-war demonstrations. Trump Derangement Syndrome will escalate to anti-Vietnam war levels and beyond. At the same time, we will have a major economic downturn, which will also be blamed on Trump. It will look like the US is actually descending into a civil war. At that point, the Chinese will make their move.