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A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?
How a Convergence of Factors Could Tempt Beijing to Act

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/pe ... aiwan-2026

Now is Beijing's final chance on Taiwan.
https://youtu.be/ToSpY7j2MUY?si=Xwd2qCGSWKp0t9GU

There's plenty of secret plans, bluffs and fake outs currently being carried out but should we get bogged down in the ME, it would be a very tempting situation for them to break the first island chain.
Maybe we're just going to withdraw to our own hemisphere and install a digital surveillance theocratic state while torching critical areas like the ME and W Pacific, and hampering/disabling their ability to compete with us. Who had seen such a thing coming, idk, but it does seem to have arisen without widespread knowledge beforehand.

DaKardii wrote: Thu Jan 29, 2026 4:57 pm Navigator, what do you believe are the chances this war will cause America to collapse, rather than (or perhaps in addition to) China?

It's pretty easy to see that any imagined and presumed danger from Iran is much less than starting and getting involved with a religious war in such a volatile region. The fact that it will precipitate the end of most of everything that we've become accustomed to and most importantly, that it was started by US is certainly a tragedy. Anyone who opposes the establishment based upon these simple truths is a defender of the Constitution and American experience. Those who advocate for never ending wars, especially dubious religious fanatical wars.... How can they be reasoned with? We can only hope that Trump somehow breaks himself from the Satanic cult of death that's apparently got a grip on him. Talk such as this is being openly advocated for censorship by those who would usurp the Constitution and American experience. There's other, perhaps more insidious dangerous elements already well established within our nation and would like to use discredited terminology to silence legitimate criticism of their patently absurd ME religious cult of death.

Navigator wrote: Sat Jan 31, 2026 3:53 pm Probably some one or two person outfit that they haven't (and I haven't) heard of yet.

And once they do hear of it, they will buy that off too?

Probably some one or two person outfit that they haven't (and I haven't) heard of yet.

Navigator wrote: Sat Jan 31, 2026 12:32 amAlmost every single "anti-establishment" movement in the US is funded in large part by the CCP.

Can you give me an example of an anti-establishment movement which isn't CCP-funded?

None.

I do need to add that this is due to religious beliefs as well as my understanding of history. I do believe in Christ, and in his return, which, btw, I think is not that far distant.

I believe that people everywhere need the opportunity to accept or reject Christ and his teachings. This only happens with the collapse of the CCP and similar dictatorships that are currently preventing that. I believe that people everywhere will have some kind of religious freedom, even if its just for a short period.

The coming conflict will be significantly internally focused for the US. There will be a LOT of guerilla type conflict here, as those who want the overthrow of the constitution and liberty will actively do things to attack us on our own soil.

Almost every single "anti-establishment" movement in the US is funded in large part by the CCP. Wouldn't you do that if you were them?

Navigator, what do you believe are the chances this war will cause America to collapse, rather than (or perhaps in addition to) China?

Xi won't accept defeat. He can't. If he does, he's dead. Plus the whole CCP with him. So we cannot even count on a change of leadership causing China to accept defeat. Only happens when CCP is overthrown. This will take some time, and EXTREME hardship in China, as in mass starvation.

As for wargames, those that model future results are completely dependent on the information loaded into them. The designers always have to make assumptions as to the actual effectiveness of different weapons systems. Then there is no real way to model the element of surprise, or other random events that tend to throw everything "off course" as far as the wargame is concerned. So I would take any wargame results with a grain of salt.

WW3 is going to spiral in almost the same way that WW1 spiraled. The Germans failed to take Paris in 1914 when their Schlieffen Plan failed. The Kaiser should have realistically admitted defeat after the Battle of the Marne, but could/would not. The war then expanded to theaters that were unanticipated, such as Ottoman empire involvement, Italian involvement, Germans entering Austria-Hungary's sphere of influence in the Balkans, then Bulgarian and later Romanian and Greek involvement. Japanese and Chinese involvement. Heck, at one point the Japanese had a naval squadron in the Mediterranean supporting French/Italian anti-German and Austrian submarine activity. Then, US and Brazilian involvement and Russian Collapse.

The thing that ended the war was mass starvation in Germany and Austria which caused a revolutionary overthrow of the Kaiser.

All of the above are examples of how WW3 is going to spiral from Taiwan specific to almost worldwide.

Thanks, Navigator.

I guess the logical f/u question would be, if and when Xi surrounds himself with "Yes" men, and attacks Taiwan, and eventually realizes he can't win, will he accept defeat, or will he resort to nukes, and if he does, will his people follow through on his orders? I know you don't have crystal ball, just wondering.

Also - what do you make of the TIDALWAVE AI-driven war games which show China winning in essentially every scenario? https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... iness-gaps

The guy that Xi just took out was supposedly one of his own. He was one of the last in senior military leadership with actual combat experience (Vietnam offensive in late '70s).

My guess is that he was "realistic" about Chinese military capabilities, and didn't want to fight the west. My additional guess is that he will be replaced by someone who tells Xi what he wants to hear, namely that attacking Taiwan is feasible and would be achieved relatively quickly.

I do not believe current reports that the dismissed general was leaking nuclear secrets to US. This is just the CCP internal justification for the sacking.