Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Navigator wrote: Sat Jan 31, 2026 3:53 pm Probably some one or two person outfit that they haven't (and I haven't) heard of yet.

And once they do hear of it, they will buy that off too?

Probably some one or two person outfit that they haven't (and I haven't) heard of yet.

Navigator wrote: Sat Jan 31, 2026 12:32 amAlmost every single "anti-establishment" movement in the US is funded in large part by the CCP.

Can you give me an example of an anti-establishment movement which isn't CCP-funded?

None.

I do need to add that this is due to religious beliefs as well as my understanding of history. I do believe in Christ, and in his return, which, btw, I think is not that far distant.

I believe that people everywhere need the opportunity to accept or reject Christ and his teachings. This only happens with the collapse of the CCP and similar dictatorships that are currently preventing that. I believe that people everywhere will have some kind of religious freedom, even if its just for a short period.

The coming conflict will be significantly internally focused for the US. There will be a LOT of guerilla type conflict here, as those who want the overthrow of the constitution and liberty will actively do things to attack us on our own soil.

Almost every single "anti-establishment" movement in the US is funded in large part by the CCP. Wouldn't you do that if you were them?

Navigator, what do you believe are the chances this war will cause America to collapse, rather than (or perhaps in addition to) China?

Xi won't accept defeat. He can't. If he does, he's dead. Plus the whole CCP with him. So we cannot even count on a change of leadership causing China to accept defeat. Only happens when CCP is overthrown. This will take some time, and EXTREME hardship in China, as in mass starvation.

As for wargames, those that model future results are completely dependent on the information loaded into them. The designers always have to make assumptions as to the actual effectiveness of different weapons systems. Then there is no real way to model the element of surprise, or other random events that tend to throw everything "off course" as far as the wargame is concerned. So I would take any wargame results with a grain of salt.

WW3 is going to spiral in almost the same way that WW1 spiraled. The Germans failed to take Paris in 1914 when their Schlieffen Plan failed. The Kaiser should have realistically admitted defeat after the Battle of the Marne, but could/would not. The war then expanded to theaters that were unanticipated, such as Ottoman empire involvement, Italian involvement, Germans entering Austria-Hungary's sphere of influence in the Balkans, then Bulgarian and later Romanian and Greek involvement. Japanese and Chinese involvement. Heck, at one point the Japanese had a naval squadron in the Mediterranean supporting French/Italian anti-German and Austrian submarine activity. Then, US and Brazilian involvement and Russian Collapse.

The thing that ended the war was mass starvation in Germany and Austria which caused a revolutionary overthrow of the Kaiser.

All of the above are examples of how WW3 is going to spiral from Taiwan specific to almost worldwide.

Thanks, Navigator.

I guess the logical f/u question would be, if and when Xi surrounds himself with "Yes" men, and attacks Taiwan, and eventually realizes he can't win, will he accept defeat, or will he resort to nukes, and if he does, will his people follow through on his orders? I know you don't have crystal ball, just wondering.

Also - what do you make of the TIDALWAVE AI-driven war games which show China winning in essentially every scenario? https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... iness-gaps

The guy that Xi just took out was supposedly one of his own. He was one of the last in senior military leadership with actual combat experience (Vietnam offensive in late '70s).

My guess is that he was "realistic" about Chinese military capabilities, and didn't want to fight the west. My additional guess is that he will be replaced by someone who tells Xi what he wants to hear, namely that attacking Taiwan is feasible and would be achieved relatively quickly.

I do not believe current reports that the dismissed general was leaking nuclear secrets to US. This is just the CCP internal justification for the sacking.

Would some of you military guys like to comment on Xi's latest "reshuffling" of his top brass?

https://www.heritage.org/tidalwave

TIDALWAVE is a progressive Artificial Intelligence–enabled model and computer simulation to simulate a protracted conflict between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). TIDALWAVE identifies gaps and deficiencies and corresponding solutions to resolve anticipated shortfalls in our ability to project and sustain the joint force and to exploit adversary vulnerabilities in order to deplete their ability to conduct military operations. The project examines both U.S. and PRC systems anticipated to have the greatest impact on the conflict: fuel and ammunition. Our ultimate aim is to guide national deliberations on how best to deter a war, and project and sustain U.S. and allied forces in a protracted conflict if required, resolve existing deficiencies, and exploit adversary weaknesses.