Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

tim wrote: Wed Feb 25, 2026 12:01 pm Iran is in a generational awakening era. Iran’s last crisis war was the Iran-Iraq war of 1980.

According to GD theory a full scale war with Iran is impossible the younger generation set to inherit power is pro western and against the hardcore Islamist generation in power.

If the US is able to cripple the Iranian government enough to tip the scale in favor of the younger pro western generation Iran will be our ally.

Bombing last summer only HELPED the mullah regime. It's a nation in severe economic and water scarcity stress. The stress is slowly but surely pushing the people to demand change. An attack by the combined 2 threatening nations has shown to galvanize the population behind the current governments regardless of how detested they are. Just like if/when we get the anticipated domestic attack the population will support Trump, even those who detest him. Similar things happened after the nine eleven attacks and everyone galvanized behind Bush even though he was unpopular and rather detested by many. It's pretty clear that there's no good reason for the US to take big risks in the ME for any kind of reason. It's not sensible and based upon old hatreds that have nothing to do with the majority of Americans.

Hopefully, Iran will bow to the pressure. But I doubt it, as they are religious fanatics who believe God is on their side. They probably view the trouncing they got from the last bombing campaign as a "test of faith", rather than facing reality.

The best and most credible analysis is that the 12 day war was stopped by our request because the missiles incoming were wreaking havoc on the small nation getting pummeled. Iran also got walloped but the best and most credible analysis is that it GALVANIZED an otherwise splintering nation

Iran is in a generational awakening era. Iran’s last crisis war was the Iran-Iraq war of 1980.

According to GD theory a full scale war with Iran is impossible the younger generation set to inherit power is pro western and against the hardcore Islamist generation in power.

If the US is able to cripple the Iranian government enough to tip the scale in favor of the younger pro western generation Iran will be our ally.

The US military is redeploying serious air reinforcements (USN and USAF) to the Middle East to threaten Iran.

The US wants two things. First, and hopefully easiest, is some kind of decent treaty preventing Iranian nuclear capability. Second would be regime change.

It appears that the buildup is solely air power based. IMHO this is a good thing. We do NOT need a ground war with Iran. To put it into perspective, Iran is 4 times the size, both geographically and population wise, of Iraq. The US ground forces are not ready for this, even if there was an internal insurgency.

Hopefully, Iran will bow to the pressure. But I doubt it, as they are religious fanatics who believe God is on their side. They probably view the trouncing they got from the last bombing campaign as a "test of faith", rather than facing reality.

Heaven help any US pilot that goes down over Iran.

At some point, the Iranians may use their "almost nuclear" option, which is to mine the Straits of Hormuz. They have the capability to do this. No maritime insurance company is going to insure a supertanker going through a minefield, so this would cut off oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Countering this would require not just minesweeping, but securing the Iranian shoreline from which mines could be deployed. That would be a real pandora's box for the US military, as such "securing" missions tend to spiral (as in Marines "securing" airbases in South Vietnam in 1965).

Our nation has decayed dramatically during the lifetime of anyone middle age or older. Sadly, it wasn't obvious to most until now, now that it's basically too late. And so we get economic collapse, chaos and war. Not only is it the climax of a 4th turning but also similar the end of many cycles. 250 year Empire cycle as outlined by Glubb. 500 year banking cycle and then the older more nebulous Biblical type cycles.
Does anyone really think that when this rubber band snaps that we'll actually be able to repair the Pandora's and get back to "life as usual" after a period of difficulty. I don't hold credence to the idea that God has a plan for only some people and the rest have to burn in hell. It's basically a wrong interpretation for selfish and dubious means. If we can start with the assumption that God is good and is part of his creation, how can we then assume that most of his creation is garbage that needs to be incinerated? No, that's the Devil speaking into your ear. Killing in the name of religion is the work of the devil and is used by evil people for worldly and selfish means.

This is a balanced article exploring the SC tariff decision. Pretty musch agrees with Navi, but in a little more depth:

https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... uling.html

I wanted to move on to my next topic, NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations).

Many are unaware that regular government, which actually has pretty good oversight, not to mention audits, has increasingly outsourced work, especially that of a "benevolent" nature to NGOs. These are supposedly "non-profit" organizations tasked with carrying out the "good work" the government wants to spend money on.

For example, these NGOs are supposed to help the poor, the homeless, the drug addicts, children, the disabled, and so on. The government, at every level (federal, state, local) gives them funds to supposedly do this.

I say supposedly because most of the money just goes to "salaries" and "administration" of the NGOs. For the individuals engaging in this "non-profit" work, it can be extremely lucrative. Case in point was what has been uncovered in Minnesota within the Somali community there.

This is just the smallest tip of the iceberg. It is turning out that most of the big cities are actually encouraging homelessness and drug addiction so that they can increase the funding to NGOs. And it turns out, surprise surprise, that those running those NGOs are politically connected to the big city political administrations.

What this means is blatant corruption whereby NGOs are used to funnel money to cronies and political operators. Little of the money is actually used to do anything worthwhile.

Government funding of NGOs needs to be outlawed. If the government wants to engage in "good works", then let government agencies do it. Not that they would be great at it, but at least controls would be in place to monitor where the money is going.

Two of the conservative justices ruled based on the Constitution, which tried very hard to ensure the separation of powers, and, for the most part has succeeded for 250 years. As did the "middle of the road" judge, Roberts. The three liberal justices ruled based on their hatred of Trump/Republicans. Had Biden done this, those three would have been OK with it.

Trump has to continue with the tariffs, as they are critical to the income of the treasury. I just wish he had done the proper groundwork and gotten something from congress authorizing retaliatory tariffs (which they were) against countries that were putting tariffs on our goods.

Also, I would point out that Trump isn't doing himself any favors by bashing the court and saying that he doesn't care what they say.

I wonder if the majority opinion justices realize or even care that we are headed for major bad times, and Trump is just doing verything he can to put us in a strategically favorable position. They point out that the word "tariff' is not even mentioned in the IEEPA. Forgive me for pointing out the obvious, but the fact that "abortion" is not mentioned in the entire constitution didn't seem to matter much in Roe vs. Wade! I hope Trump doubles down and continues his course, even as melodramatic cries of "dictator" are sure to increase.

I am not surprised that the Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariffs. Separation of powers is pretty clear, and the power to tax (which includes tariffs) is a power given to Congress, not the President. And Congress had not passed any laws giving the President wide latitude in setting tariffs, which is what he did. So the Supreme Court ruled the way it did.

Now, the tariffs have been important for us in stabilizing the financial situation, which is quite dire. Without the tariffs, we are indeed in for a world of hurt.

I wish that Trump had gotten some kind of permission from congress before starting the tariffs, but he didn't. I hope that he does now, and hopefully the tariffs can resume.

I have warned in the past about what could happen if the tariffs were struck down (great increase in negative balance of payments, increasing strain on US financial system). I am concerned that this could be a trigger for the financial downturn I have generally expected before the big war starts.