Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote=FullMoon post_id=91287 time=1750202294 user_id=3072] Life as normal became war life as normal. They were lucky to emerge into a better world. We don't necessarily think that's a high probability.
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Yes, few indeed remember the last Industrial Age crisis. But you still have to remember that none have lived through an Information Age crisis. Nukes make all out war not cost effective, so the autocrats are tippy toeing. Putin is teetering on the edge of losing his war and his status. China has impossible economic problems that make a sea war with the US seem feasible. Trump is in the process of creating our own economic collapse to rival the others. The Middle East is being the Middle East. The Jews have embraced racist genocide, which was the whole excuse for conquest of Muslim land in the first place. The Muslims haven’t the gumption for revolution against their autocrats.

Fourth Turning crisis theory put together a pretty good idea of how things flowed during the Information Age. Autocrats thought their military cultures could impose on industrial cultures and found they were wrong. (Napoleon and Hitler are the classic examples.) That lesson may or may not hold this time around. What is newer is that the economic collapse(s) are happening all around. (Trump, Xi, Putin.). Going to war during an economic collapse will be the new thing. Last time, war was the way [i]out[/i] of the economic collapse. While I don’t see an invasion of the US across the Atlantic or Pacific, continuing the other conflicts may seem necessary for various autocrats to cling to power. One possibility is an EMP burst, a high altitude nuke knocking out considerable electronic and power infrastructure, making the economic collapses even worse.

But we are definitely treading new ground. The best resolution would be deciding that racism and conquest are counterproductive. I’m not holding my breath. You have to prove the theories wrong before you get rid of them.

Tim, I just say that for people on the fence (still...) or casual readers. They say that the traffic here isn't very small but definitely not big. It's definitely the time to think about your situation and where you are and how this will impact you. Speaking to the general audience that is. But really, since nobody has actually experienced this ie. basic 4th turning philosophy, we're just trying to imagine what will happen to us. Both my grandfather's were in the war effort. One flew over Germany and the other welded machinery. But that's what everyone did and options were limited. Life as normal became war life as normal. They were lucky to emerge into a better world. We don't necessarily think that's a high probability.

[quote=FullMoon post_id=91281 time=1750172616 user_id=3072]
We're entering the point of maximum danger and people consider it as business as usual. Prepare to live the life that you should have been prepping for all along. And if you have, you're definitely not looking forward to it.
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Anybody who has spent any amount of time here has had enough information and time to prepare.

World events are picking up and show no sign of slowing down.

2025 is 80 years from 1945. We are in the Fourth Turning yet our crisis hasn't fully started.

There are places in Ukraine, Iran, and Israel that have been untouched by the war as of yet. Think of when the war comes to the U.S. where you want to be.

[quote=Trevor post_id=91276 time=1750132445 user_id=2033]
The dominoes are falling, but they're falling in reverse order than what I imagined would happen a few years ago. Israel no longer cares about world opinion, as I mentioned before. Even if we forbade this strike, I think they'd have done it anyway, terrified of Iran with a nuclear bomb.
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We know that they've captured enough support in our government just like they infiltrated the other governments that they've destroyed. USA is just a political cover and armaments supplier for them. They'll be overextended soon by design and the pressure to "save" them will be too great. But who will they save? Certainly not anyone's saviour. We're expendable just as any other greatness that's existed for 2 thousand years.

The same cheerleading for all the wars of choice are back in the pulpit. We've gotten nothing but death and Treasury plunder every time. This time will be incomparable.

Trump has been shown on this forum to be a liar, thief, con man and fraud. Where's the "No War" President now? Did he campaign on and get elected to start a war and bring our nation to the brink of disaster? I think anyone who voted for him thought he would do the opposite.

Exhausting our missile supply and munitions first in Ukraine and now Iran will greatly embolden the Chinese. We'll be inviting them to give it a try if we get bogged down and loiter in that sand pit.

We're entering the point of maximum danger and people consider it as business as usual. Prepare to live the life that you should have been prepping for all along. And if you have, you're definitely not looking forward to it.

The dominoes are falling, but they're falling in reverse order than what I imagined would happen a few years ago. Israel no longer cares about world opinion, as I mentioned before. Even if we forbade this strike, I think they'd have done it anyway, terrified of Iran with a nuclear bomb.

Iran's population might be pro-western, but there's little they can do, so long as the Mullahs have the guns. At least so far, they've been willing to side with the hardliners. Blocking the Straits of Hormuz would be a desperate option, but I wouldn't put it past them. Such an act would also force us to get involved militarily.

Their nuclear program has to be destroyed now, because if they do get a bomb, there's no doubt in my mind they'll use it. Whether Trump likes it or not, I think he'll have to participate in the strikes, since we're the only ones with bunker busters big enough to take their operation out. Israel's damaged it, but not destroyed it. The Middle East is volatile at the best of times, let alone now.

Ukraine and Iran might not lead to a global conflict in themselves, but once China makes their move, the world will have to choose sides. As much as I can't stand Trump, I think he'll be better suited for a conflict than Harris.

One thing I've been convinced of for some time is that the Soviet Union suffered a "First Turning Reset" after the Great Patriotic War, thanks to the massive devastation. Bad as the Western Front was, the Eastern Front was a whole different level of brutality. At least 25 million and possibly as many as 40 million Soviets were killed, the impact on its demographics evident to this day. So Russia's deep into its crisis period. The collapse of the USSR looks much more to me than an awakening era climax than a crisis-era resolution. John always disagreed with me on this, though.

There's been talk of a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities for 20 years, so why now? I saw a video I thought was interesting, mentioning that the Israeli strikes were during what was close to a full moon and ideally, you should strike during a new moon when there's little light. That Israel couldn't wait a couple weeks indicates to me their leadership decided that it was now or never, that Iran was close to a nuclear bomb or perhaps even have one. Whatever they say publicly, Iran's neighbors have been begging us for years to destroy their nuclear sites.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQnkTVf7qWM&t=610s

Since Israel began their operation, they've demonstrated what a proper air campaign looks like. I heard plenty of talk about how Iran now possessed the latest Russian weapons, that the upgrades they received would make even the F-35 vulnerable, that any campaign would endure massive losses. Instead, Israel gained air dominance in a matter of days.

This is a great detailed video of how the Israelis infiltrated Iran and wreaked havoc on the Iranian leadership and, most importantly, air defense infrastructure.

Its by a former US infantryman who has become a great video explainer of current military affairs.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_cwjNF-sfc&ab_channel=CappyArmy[/url]

This is a great video by a non-conservative economist on how China has screwed over the US (and everyone else involved in global trade) since it was granted entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) by Bill Clinton.

It explains why Trump's tarrifs are needed and how world trade is in dire need of drastic change. Note how he points out that Biden didn't change any of the policies put in place regarding China trade by Trump in his first term.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LJi6iFHqDc&ab_channel=Maxinomics[/url]

At the same time that the Israel-Iran conflict heats up, we are seeing a substantial escalation of civil unrest in the US.

As I mentioned before, the CCP is funding the Anti ICE demonstrations and the recent "No Kings Day" demonstrations. They will continue to ramp up this kind of activity as they try to plunge the US into civil chaos that may surpass what was seen during the Vietnam War.

Here is a good video of how China is funding anti-US government leftist groups who are behind much of the civil unrest (start at 7:08 point):
[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUNfEznEyoI&ab_channel=ChinaUncensored[/url]

I am seeing some articles saying that they believe the Iranians may back down. I seriously doubt it.

The Iranians are led by Shia religious fanatics. They are FULLY committed to their interpretation of Islam. They believe, with full commitment, that Allah is backing them, and that they are incapable of losing. This belief is no different from fanatical Nazis or the Japanese in WW2 (whose beliefs were also tantamount to religious fanaticism). To them defeat was inconceivable. It is the same with the Iranian Mullahs.

Right now the Mullahs believe that their faith is merely being tested and that they will miraculously be victorious. For this reason I believe that they will pull out all the stops and even cross the line into attempting to block the Straights of Hormuz. This is not a rational course of action, but they probably believe that they are meant to engage even with the US.

There is a slight chance that the regular Iranian military may balk at this and stage some kind of coup (I think that's what the Israelis are hoping for), but the Mullahs have had decades to get rid of anyone in the Iranian military that they may even suspect of non-ferver regarding Shia Islam.

So I think this will get worse. Much worse.