Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Thu Nov 06, 2025 4:54 am

Well, we are officially in the longest shutdown in our history. I doubt it's going to end anytime soon, since many of the Democrats' main donors (wealthy, white liberals) are screaming: "Resist at all costs!" The shutdown isn't going to impact them much, so they have little to lose by keeping it going.

I can't say I'm surprised by any of the recent election results. Virginia and New Jersey are blue states and right now, Democrats have the motivation to turn out. Mondami is likely to end up being a gift for the Republicans, but since his opposition is a disgraced ex-governor, I'm not surprised the city couldn't stomach another few years of him. Still, his victory margin was a lot smaller than that of Eric Adams in 2021.

What I've never believed is that the arc of history goes in a single direction. I can't say I was a Charlie Kirk fan, but it's looking like Nick Fuentes may replace him. Unlike most, he is a far-right, Neo-Nazi, white supremacist, someone who has a massive number of followers. It worries me to see the likes of him gain such traction among the younger generation. There are some conservatives speaking against him, but not nearly enough.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Wed Nov 05, 2025 4:00 pm

The Zohran election in NYC is yet another manifestation that promising people free stuff will get you elected.

It doesn't surprise me anymore that people are dumb enough to believe this kind of stuff. The reality is that the rich will flee, the tax receipts will crater, and the city will find itself in bankruptcy. Meanwhile the non enforcement of basic laws will result in rampant crime, which is already at historically bad levels.

Extreme leftists have turned many cities into third world hellscapes that are supported by the taxes coming from non-urban citizens in the same state. If it wasn't for these funds, these cities would have completely cratered years ago.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Sun Nov 02, 2025 1:51 pm

Its not just the layoffs due to AI. There is also the AI investment bubble. The home real estate bubble. The impending commercial real estate collapse. The motor vehicle debt most are carrying, on top of unprecedented household debt.

Then there is the world wide government debt.

None of this is reversable without a major economic downturn where bad debt has to be written off.

But then the super rich, corporations (or in the case of China the CCP) will not want this to happen as it would mean bankruptcy. This means having to put the economy in some kind of a holding pattern where the government can suspend normal economic activity. Hence a major war.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by FullMoon » Sat Nov 01, 2025 9:14 pm

DaKardii wrote: Fri Oct 31, 2025 12:52 pm Here's the horrifying truth neither side is willing to admit. We're headed for a depression. Not because of Trump's tariffs but because of AI. Right now, many companies are laying off human employees not because they have to, but because they want to. Out of pure greed, they are replacing human employees who do need compensation with AI "employees" which don't need compensation. As a consequence, we have an economy which appears to be booming, but it's all fake. Of course, such an illusion can only be kept for so long. And once time runs out, the results will be just as bad if not worse than 1929.
In some ways we can happy that things still as seem "normal". Because they certainly aren't and the rug is getting pulled from under our feet as should be expected. It's really happening and the time is now. It's not a hypothetical situation but an ongoing reality. Better get ready quickly.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by DaKardii » Fri Oct 31, 2025 12:52 pm

Here's the horrifying truth neither side is willing to admit. We're headed for a depression. Not because of Trump's tariffs but because of AI. Right now, many companies are laying off human employees not because they have to, but because they want to. Out of pure greed, they are replacing human employees who do need compensation with AI "employees" which don't need compensation. As a consequence, we have an economy which appears to be booming, but it's all fake. Of course, such an illusion can only be kept for so long. And once time runs out, the results will be just as bad if not worse than 1929.

Carriers and Economics

by Bob Butler » Wed Oct 29, 2025 7:25 pm

tim wrote: Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:50 am I wouldn't be surprised to see China have an ability to completely neutralize our aircraft carriers. The same way battleships became obsolete and the way the use of tanks has changed because of drones, China might have the ability to overload aircraft carrier defenses by using some AI powered drone swarm. An aircraft carrier has limited missiles while China could launch unlimited drones until it was overwhelmed.

With the U.S. going into debt 1 trillion dollars every 2 months now, if all paper currencies fall into some kind of crisis much of the manufacturing capability is in China so to restart from nothing or a gold backed system China might have an advantage.
I would not be shocked if carriers have a new technological vulnerability, but drones have a limited range. They would have to get within that range somehow.

I agree Trump's tariff and other economic policies are problematic. Recovering from Trump is going to be a headache. Comparing Trump's policies to China's economic woes will be interesting. It's far enough out that I can't forsee a result. I suspect Europe, Canada and other third parties will be the winners.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:50 am

Bob Butler wrote: Sat Oct 25, 2025 2:32 pm
Trevor wrote: Fri Oct 17, 2025 2:52 amOur defense base isn't anywhere close to being prepared for a large-scale war against an opponent like China.

Just as bad, our disfunction makes us look weak to China, convincing them that we won't be willing to fight for something like Taiwan.
I don't doubt we'd be at a big military disadvantage on land against China, but they have an equal disadvantage at sea. They have but the one carrier, and it can't launch aircraft with a full fuel load and payload. Meanwhile, would you want to try to launch a sea invasion in an area with modern submarine opponents? I perhaps spend too much time reviewing WW II in the Pacific, how US carriers and submarines overwhelmed Japan. Japan didn't believe the US would be willing to fight in 1941 either, but they were quite wrong. Catastrophically wrong. Culture changing wrong. I don't see China in a very different position.

Economically China has their problems, but they have the advantage of Trump's tariffs giving them an economic advantage with nations avoiding same. They can likely limp on as long as Trump is in power.
I wouldn't be surprised to see China have an ability to completely neutralize our aircraft carriers. The same way battleships became obsolete and the way the use of tanks has changed because of drones, China might have the ability to overload aircraft carrier defenses by using some AI powered drone swarm. An aircraft carrier has limited missiles while China could launch unlimited drones until it was overwhelmed.

With the U.S. going into debt 1 trillion dollars every 2 months now, if all paper currencies fall into some kind of crisis much of the manufacturing capability is in China so to restart from nothing or a gold backed system China might have an advantage.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Sun Oct 26, 2025 6:38 pm

Trump's tariffs are incredibly effective against China. China's economy is vastly export oriented. Reductions in exports (which happens when higher tariffs are placed) cause entire factories in China to shut down. This is a BIG problem for China, and for the CCP.

Naval warfare, just like land warfare, has changed dramatically since WW2. They will lose a lot in their attempt to invade Taiwan (which is 50/50 for success). However, they can certainly protect their own coast from invasion.

War with China will just expand into more and more land fronts as China moves unmatched manpower to various theaters (Vietnam, Korea, Tibet, even Europe) to wear down others.

WW3 will be a high tech version of WW1. Note how Ukraine was is playing out.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Bob Butler » Sat Oct 25, 2025 2:32 pm

Trevor wrote: Fri Oct 17, 2025 2:52 amOur defense base isn't anywhere close to being prepared for a large-scale war against an opponent like China.

Just as bad, our disfunction makes us look weak to China, convincing them that we won't be willing to fight for something like Taiwan.
I don't doubt we'd be at a big military disadvantage on land against China, but they have an equal disadvantage at sea. They have but the one carrier, and it can't launch aircraft with a full fuel load and payload. Meanwhile, would you want to try to launch a sea invasion in an area with modern submarine opponents? I perhaps spend too much time reviewing WW II in the Pacific, how US carriers and submarines overwhelmed Japan. Japan didn't believe the US would be willing to fight in 1941 either, but they were quite wrong. Catastrophically wrong. Culture changing wrong. I don't see China in a very different position.

Economically China has their problems, but they have the advantage of Trump's tariffs giving them an economic advantage with nations avoiding same. They can likely limp on as long as Trump is in power.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by FullMoon » Sat Oct 18, 2025 11:29 am

Our defense base isn't anywhere close to being prepared for a large-scale war against an opponent like China. I know some here have speculated that these smaller conflicts are an intentional method of draining our munitions, weakening us for when China launches their assault
While at the same time we'd like to engage with rivals who are many years ahead of us already with manufacturing development on a scale that dwarfs our own. They're definitely game planning this and are operating by strategic intent. The latest escalation was many years in the making.
I heard several financial analysts saying that it's clear that China is going down and this latest move is to bring everyone else with them. Just like they did with COVID.

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