by Trevor » Wed Oct 01, 2025 2:33 pm
Putin is on the path he wants to be on. He's stated countless times that he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire and it wasn't until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that we began to take him seriously.
Trump offered him 90% of what he wanted, more than enough for Putin to claim victory. He refused, even increasing his demands, making clear he had no interest in peace.
I suspect he might also be motivated by trying to regain NATO's confidence, given how furious they were at him turning their back. He might have been hoping they could stand on their own so we could focus on China, but they've shown a stunning lack of ability to do it. Instead, they've been denouncing us and claiming we'll never be trusted again.
Frankly, when China makes their move, I don't think we're going to get any support from them. The alliance has been fracturing for a long time. There's really no reason why NATO would need our help to fight Russia, given they're far weaker than the Soviet Union was. However, with a handful of exceptions, Russia is still seen as a distant threat and potential partner, even by some former Warsaw Pact nations. I expect invoking Article V will get the diplomatic version of: "Screw you, you're on your own!"
When it comes to Iran, we didn't even see their domestic population rally after we struck them, which says a lot about how detested the regime is. Right now, they've mostly been quiet, focusing on internal dissent, but I doubt that will last.
Putin is on the path he wants to be on. He's stated countless times that he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire and it wasn't until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that we began to take him seriously.
Trump offered him 90% of what he wanted, more than enough for Putin to claim victory. He refused, even increasing his demands, making clear he had no interest in peace.
I suspect he might also be motivated by trying to regain NATO's confidence, given how furious they were at him turning their back. He might have been hoping they could stand on their own so we could focus on China, but they've shown a stunning lack of ability to do it. Instead, they've been denouncing us and claiming we'll never be trusted again.
Frankly, when China makes their move, I don't think we're going to get any support from them. The alliance has been fracturing for a long time. There's really no reason why NATO would need our help to fight Russia, given they're far weaker than the Soviet Union was. However, with a handful of exceptions, Russia is still seen as a distant threat and potential partner, even by some former Warsaw Pact nations. I expect invoking Article V will get the diplomatic version of: "Screw you, you're on your own!"
When it comes to Iran, we didn't even see their domestic population rally after we struck them, which says a lot about how detested the regime is. Right now, they've mostly been quiet, focusing on internal dissent, but I doubt that will last.