Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Trump's tariffs are incredibly effective against China. China's economy is vastly export oriented. Reductions in exports (which happens when higher tariffs are placed) cause entire factories in China to shut down. This is a BIG problem for China, and for the CCP.

Naval warfare, just like land warfare, has changed dramatically since WW2. They will lose a lot in their attempt to invade Taiwan (which is 50/50 for success). However, they can certainly protect their own coast from invasion.

War with China will just expand into more and more land fronts as China moves unmatched manpower to various theaters (Vietnam, Korea, Tibet, even Europe) to wear down others.

WW3 will be a high tech version of WW1. Note how Ukraine was is playing out.

Trevor wrote: Fri Oct 17, 2025 2:52 amOur defense base isn't anywhere close to being prepared for a large-scale war against an opponent like China.

Just as bad, our disfunction makes us look weak to China, convincing them that we won't be willing to fight for something like Taiwan.

I don't doubt we'd be at a big military disadvantage on land against China, but they have an equal disadvantage at sea. They have but the one carrier, and it can't launch aircraft with a full fuel load and payload. Meanwhile, would you want to try to launch a sea invasion in an area with modern submarine opponents? I perhaps spend too much time reviewing WW II in the Pacific, how US carriers and submarines overwhelmed Japan. Japan didn't believe the US would be willing to fight in 1941 either, but they were quite wrong. Catastrophically wrong. Culture changing wrong. I don't see China in a very different position.

Economically China has their problems, but they have the advantage of Trump's tariffs giving them an economic advantage with nations avoiding same. They can likely limp on as long as Trump is in power.

Our defense base isn't anywhere close to being prepared for a large-scale war against an opponent like China. I know some here have speculated that these smaller conflicts are an intentional method of draining our munitions, weakening us for when China launches their assault

While at the same time we'd like to engage with rivals who are many years ahead of us already with manufacturing development on a scale that dwarfs our own. They're definitely game planning this and are operating by strategic intent. The latest escalation was many years in the making.
I heard several financial analysts saying that it's clear that China is going down and this latest move is to bring everyone else with them. Just like they did with COVID.

We have rare earth metals here and can get more from Australia. China's had a monopoly primarily because they lack environmental and labor laws, so they can poison everything in sight, including their workers, without consequence.

Since the end of the Cold War, our military has been designed for sharp, decisive conflicts or ongoing insurgencies. Our defense base isn't anywhere close to being prepared for a large-scale war against an opponent like China. I know some here have speculated that these smaller conflicts are an intentional method of draining our munitions, weakening us for when China launches their assault. I couldn't say one way or the other, but that could easily end up backfiring, because it also motivated us to begin building new assembly lines.

I don't think much more is going to be done just because things have gotten so dysfunctional in Washington that, if one party prepares, the other will sabotage them out of spite. Vital artillery shell assembly lines were delayed by months back in 2024. Politics is the main obstacle right now, not a lack of industrial ability.

Just as bad, our disfunction makes us look weak to China, convincing them that we won't be willing to fight for something like Taiwan.

Hamas can't be trusted at all. They are basically a mafia type organization, where the top leadership become immensely wealthy taking a cut of all aid. They will not give up control or their weapons unless they are dead.

I am glad the Israeli's got their hostages back, but it was indeed at too high of an exchange rate. Maybe they went along with it in order to show Trump that Hamas wouldn't follow through on most of the negotiated terms.

The only viable solution is to move the Arab population out of Gaza. Best destination for them right now is Syria.

guest wrote: Mon Oct 13, 2025 4:23 pm I look for Hamas to launch another enormous hostage-taking attack on Israel as soon as the dust settles from this "peace deal." After all, they just got back at least 100 of their own people for every hostage surrendered. It worked so well the first time, they'd be crazy not to do it again! Of course, Israel knows this. Get the popcorn.

I see. Although Israel maintains absolute dominance and has cleared the area around the borders, Hamas will magically pull out of the hat another miracle. Because 10/7 wasn't an inside job, right? I suppose the 8th front is at work on this forum.

I look for Hamas to launch another enormous hostage-taking attack on Israel as soon as the dust settles from this "peace deal." After all, they just got back at least 100 of their own people for every hostage surrendered. It worked so well the first time, they'd be crazy not to do it again! Of course, Israel knows this. Get the popcorn.

Navigator wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 11:33 pm Trump had to put a huge tariff on China due to their blockage of rare earth mineral exports. Hopefully the US can quickly ramp up, but the production would have to come out of California, which could be difficult. Maybe Trump could have the Federal Government seize the land and have normal rules and regulations cover the mines (rather than God only knows what California would do).

Also saw some funny bits on liberals screaming for a Gaza Cease Fire now saying nothing since Trump actually arranged this. Myself, I am waiting to see if Hamas actually releases prisoners. They have never lived up to a single agreement, so lets see what actually happens. Hoping for the best, expecting the worst.

What happened last Friday is quite a story of palace intrigue regarding the 180° Chinese about face. I suspect they're hoping we can use up lots of our missiles in Europe and the ME without being able to resupply for many years. While they double down on production and supply for those who they engaged with us.
Regarding the ME, seems like they could pull out of Gaza as it's now decimated. Regroup and rest up for whatever is next is probably the strategy.

I have been busy so haven't been able to post, glad to see Dakardi back. First on this both sides are violent thing please just stop it, it is overwhelmingly the left. I don't have much time to post but I saw the thing Navigator posted on the rare earths and having to source them from California. We can source them from Australia and there have been some recent discoveries of new deposits in other parts of the US which are more friendly to extraction than California as well as new companies that are extracting rare earths and other minerals from mine and desalination plant waste as well as from the waste of coal plants that generate electricity. The Australians have also made a new discovery of a massive iron deposit that is believed to be the largest deposit ever discovered. At the risk of sounding positive I would say that we are in better shape than what most people believe, that is not to say that there are not any tough times ahead, there certainly are but I am feeling better about our preparedness than what I was feeling years ago.

Trump had to put a huge tariff on China due to their blockage of rare earth mineral exports. Hopefully the US can quickly ramp up, but the production would have to come out of California, which could be difficult. Maybe Trump could have the Federal Government seize the land and have normal rules and regulations cover the mines (rather than God only knows what California would do).

Also saw some funny bits on liberals screaming for a Gaza Cease Fire now saying nothing since Trump actually arranged this. Myself, I am waiting to see if Hamas actually releases prisoners. They have never lived up to a single agreement, so lets see what actually happens. Hoping for the best, expecting the worst.