by Trevor » Thu Aug 14, 2025 4:16 am
We'll know in a couple weeks if this is a start of the Ukrainian front line breaking or merely a brief surge designed to send a message ahead of talks. Either way, it's still significant and I agree with Navigator that the cracks are beginning to show. Even with outside aid, Russia is still a lot bigger and has proven itself willing to endure devastating casualties for minor objectives. However, they can replace their losses; Ukraine can't.
The cost has been devastating. Close to a million casualties, with 250,000 dead for Russia, exhausting their vast Soviet-era stocks. They've lost around 4,000 tanks and 20,000 vehicles that can be independently verified, so the actual losses are certainly higher. They haven't managed to control the skies, and the war continues despite most analysts thinking it'd be over in a month at the outset. After 3.5 years, NATO would easily have been able to counter them... if they'd made even a moderate effort at rebuilding their military.
I've long suspected Trump has wanted to have NATO do the heavy lifting so we could focus all our efforts on China. After 3.5 years, though, they still haven't managed to get it together. Aid being held up in Congress led to lots of pretty speeches, but little substance. Trump temporarily cutting off aid led to hysterical proclamations all over social media and political press, declaring: "We'll never, ever forgive America for this!" Again, however, there's little substance to this, merely smoke. Financial aid is important, but Ukraine needs actual material to fight with.
It wasn't until 2024 that we saw any significant increase in military spending, and most of that was in Eastern Europe, who have a personal memory of Soviet domination. Western Europe has barely done anything. Germany's efforts are still stuck in committee, Britain and France were already at the 2% guideline (and neither has increased this over the last 3 years), Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy still haven't even begun. It's been so long since they've stood on their own, they've forgotten how. They'd have to make a few cuts to their social programs, but this is anathema to their public. Sure, they're happy to post "Slava Ukraine" and lecture the U.S. about how we've betrayed them, but while it makes them feel good about themselves, slogans don't equal preparedness.
We'll know in a couple weeks if this is a start of the Ukrainian front line breaking or merely a brief surge designed to send a message ahead of talks. Either way, it's still significant and I agree with Navigator that the cracks are beginning to show. Even with outside aid, Russia is still a lot bigger and has proven itself willing to endure devastating casualties for minor objectives. However, they can replace their losses; Ukraine can't.
The cost has been devastating. Close to a million casualties, with 250,000 dead for Russia, exhausting their vast Soviet-era stocks. They've lost around 4,000 tanks and 20,000 vehicles that can be independently verified, so the actual losses are certainly higher. They haven't managed to control the skies, and the war continues despite most analysts thinking it'd be over in a month at the outset. After 3.5 years, NATO would easily have been able to counter them... if they'd made even a moderate effort at rebuilding their military.
I've long suspected Trump has wanted to have NATO do the heavy lifting so we could focus all our efforts on China. After 3.5 years, though, they still haven't managed to get it together. Aid being held up in Congress led to lots of pretty speeches, but little substance. Trump temporarily cutting off aid led to hysterical proclamations all over social media and political press, declaring: "We'll never, ever forgive America for this!" Again, however, there's little substance to this, merely smoke. Financial aid is important, but Ukraine needs actual material to fight with.
It wasn't until 2024 that we saw any significant increase in military spending, and most of that was in Eastern Europe, who have a personal memory of Soviet domination. Western Europe has barely done anything. Germany's efforts are still stuck in committee, Britain and France were already at the 2% guideline (and neither has increased this over the last 3 years), Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy still haven't even begun. It's been so long since they've stood on their own, they've forgotten how. They'd have to make a few cuts to their social programs, but this is anathema to their public. Sure, they're happy to post "Slava Ukraine" and lecture the U.S. about how we've betrayed them, but while it makes them feel good about themselves, slogans don't equal preparedness.