Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote="Friend of Iran" post_id=93508 time=1771099697]
By the way, expect Butler to compare the Iranian protesters to Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
[/quote]

Well, both the Iranian religious leaders and ICE killers are willing to discard the enlightenment principles. You can fairly easily call the Iranian murderers part of a religious dictatorship. It is fairly easy to label them as bad guys, though quite a different flavor of bad guys than we are seeing in the US.

Just how different are the two? What is common is a willingness to murder folks for protesting questionable policy. ICE seems willing to kill people for political gain. The difference is how rational the Trump / ICE policy is. You get reports of Trump's lack of rationality and sentience. His restraint of ICE and lethal intent seem insufficient to prevent the political murders. The mechanism by which the cabinet or Congress can remove him are not that far along, but Trump is loosing the GOP. Both the Congress and cabinet are so far treating political murder an acceptable policy. I don't see a two thirds vote of the Senate as likely to materialize. Still, Trump is no longer acting pro rural voter. The GOP is losing any path to retain power following Trump. I can see where Trump's policies and mental state could result in the cabinet preferring Vance to Trump, with the ICE murders being one of many issues. We'll have to see.

Iranian regime tracking down wounded protesters and executing them in hospitals:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/14/world/video/iranian-regime-arrest-doctors-protesters-vrtc

I'm assuming Trump will eventually "decapitate" the current regime. But this time (unlike Venezuela), he needs to make sure that the opposition gets into power. This may involve smuggling millions of weapons into the right hands, and providing all kinds of additional support. And while I hate to say it, a lot of the current Revolutionary Guard probably need to be neutralized in the process, as they have shown willingness to kill their unarmed countrymen to preserve their positions. Yes, some of them may have been forced to do so under threat of death themselves. I guess things like this this are never "cleanly" resolved. But I'm tired of watching these brave protesters be fired at like cattle in the street. Iran's people deserve better.

By the way, expect Butler to compare the Iranian protesters to Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

[quote=Fullmoonn post_id=93502 time=1770952410]
[quote=DaKardii post_id=93472 time=1770788608 user_id=2550]
[quote=DaKardii post_id=93391 time=1769904453 user_id=2550]


And once they do hear of it, they will buy that off too?
[/quote]

Why should we presume that every anti-establishment movement in the US is aligned with the enemy?
[/quote]
The origination of the nation was by anti-establishment people, was it not? But we also have to be aware that stirring up internal division and causing internal conflict is absolutely going on for us and by us abroad.
[/quote]

I actually have a little sympathy for Karl Marx. If you are revolting against kings or dictators, yes, you need an armed revolution. The American and French Revolutions were well before Marx, but the Marxist principles are there. The problem is that Communism results in dictatorships, Yes, you force out kings and dictators, but you replace them with dictators. If your revolutionary government doesn't include enlightenment values, the result of the revolution is not productive.

You need a form of government which benefits the people not the elites. Democracy does that in principle. You cannot forget entirely a loyalty to the voters. Still, it is tempting for the politicians to want to become part of the elite, to take favors and privilege.

I think Trump, MAGA and the GoP have become too obviously pro elite. Lately, they have not been serving their rural base well at all. The too few intermediate elections have been going Democratic. I can't help but think how heavy the vote swung in the last high. Congress went heavily Democratic for decades. It might happen again if the GoP stays loyal to the elites.

I think one should keep in mind whether political organizations act in the interests of the typical voter or the elites. The Trump variation of the GoP held while they really acted in the interests of MAGA. This unfortunately included a racist element, against blacks and latinos. That has faded somewhat in the second Trump term, but so has the loyalty to the rural voters. They are losing their base. They may lose Congress. The result may be similar to the shift in the last high.

[quote=DaKardii post_id=93472 time=1770788608 user_id=2550]
[quote=DaKardii post_id=93391 time=1769904453 user_id=2550]
[quote=Navigator post_id=93390 time=1769889218 user_id=2754]
Probably some one or two person outfit that they haven't (and I haven't) heard of yet.
[/quote]

And once they do hear of it, they will buy that off too?
[/quote]

Why should we presume that every anti-establishment movement in the US is aligned with the enemy?
[/quote]
The origination of the nation was by anti-establishment people, was it not? But we also have to be aware that stirring up internal division and causing internal conflict is absolutely going on for us and by us abroad.

[quote=DaKardii post_id=93391 time=1769904453 user_id=2550]
[quote=Navigator post_id=93390 time=1769889218 user_id=2754]
Probably some one or two person outfit that they haven't (and I haven't) heard of yet.
[/quote]

And once they do hear of it, they will buy that off too?
[/quote]

Why should we presume that every anti-establishment movement in the US is aligned with the enemy?

Best times to cross over to Taiwan from China are April and October.

The CCP missed their big chance in October 2024. Biden was still president then. They could have counted on zero decisive action by the USA then.

When is the weather optimal for a Taiwan invasion?

I saw some drawings and some photos of CCP landing attack vessels designed for shallow Taiwan west coast beaches. Scary.

The first vessel has an offloading ramp system.
The following vessels butt up to a preceding vessel.
War machines roll forward towards the beach.
I trust that defenses plan to target the forward vessels.

Off topic:
Years ago, I was worried that the main device of a system produced by my employer was manufactured in Taiwan. When a major redesign was launched, I lobbied for us to use a reputable German company (before German government destroyed the country). I was mortified when I found out the Germans were going to have the device made in Taiwan. There was a schedule in place to deal with Iranians messing with oil flow from the ME so my protests were rejected.

I was aware then that the CCP honchos were being replaced by younger people who had not experience the horrors of war and were cocky.

I saw that Pooh has dumped many of his staff in recent times. Maybe had them deleted?

I rarely make it to this web site and mostly read, not comment. Hoping this has not been covered before.

Hello John. I still have a pulse.

[url]https://nataliegwinters.substack.com/p/exclusive-anti-ice-minnesota-mayor[/url]

[quote]EXCLUSIVE: Anti-ICE Minnesota Mayor Took Free China Trip From Communist Influence Group, Signed Collaboration Deal Expanding Beijing’s Reach

The delegation even visited historic Mao sites…[/quote]

[quote]Several American mayors, including local leaders from Minnesota who have publicly opposed funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), traveled to China last fall on an all-expenses-paid delegation organized by a communist, pro-China influence group.

The benefactor - the United States Heartland China Association (USHCA) - is a group that belongs to the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front influence apparatus, which seeks to influence overseas politics in favor of China.[/quote]

I'm figuring on something like the normal crisis - high boundary. While Putin is trying a war of expansion, Israel is practicing racism, Iran is short on water and dealing with a secular revolution against religious rule, and Trump is active in Venezuela and maybe Greenland and Canada, we'll have something almost approximating crisis conflicts. Not a big one like last time. A bunch of more local things. Come the high, people get tired of it. Russia is in economic trouble and running out of tanks. China is in economic trouble. The Democrats are doing very well in the few special elections. The local troubles are nothing to ignore, but seem to be moving towards climax and decent resolution.

So I'm mildly content waiting for the High. China could get desperate. Trump isn't predictable. Still the Democrats will likely want to return to something like the old status quo after the next election cycle or two.