Guest wrote:
> The regions of Afrin and Manbij are not connected. They are
> separated by a region including including Azaz and Al Bab,
> controlled by Trukish forces. The only way around goes through
> territory controlled by Assad's forces. The significance of this
> is that US forces are present in and around Manbij, but not in or
> around Afrin. An invasion of Manbij would put Turkish forces in
> direct conflict with US forces. An invasion of Afrin would not.
> So far Turkish backed forces have clashed with US forces and US
> backed forces have clashed with Turkish forces. However, no
> direct engagement between the Turkish military and the US military
> has been admitted or proven. I therefore conclude that Turkish
> forces will almost certainly attack Afrin, but almost certainly
> not attack Manbij.
I understand your logic, but at times like this it's necessary to ask
whether logic or emotions are in charge. Turkey under Erdogan has
been increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic for years, with an
extreme surge starting with the attempted coup. Today, the Turkish
media give the impression that the government is losing control of its
own senses, which is not uncommon during a generational Crisis era.
Here's an article by Ibrahim Karagül, the powerful highly
nationalistic editor of Yeni Safak, and a strong supporter of Erdogan:
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ib ... es-2041290
Karagül explains that the situation is an existential crisis for
Turkey, and it's necessary for Turkey to attack not only Afrin and
Manbij, but also targets east of the Euphrates.
So the news today is that Turkey's warplanes are conducting airstrikes
on Afrin. Does that mean that the Turkish/FSA ground invasion will go
forward? Does that mean that Russia has withdrawn its forces? If
not, is Erdogan counting on the fact that the airstrikes will motivate
the Russian forces to flee?
You say that Turkey will not attack Manbij because there are American
forces in the region. If Russian forces didn't stop the airstrikes on
Afrin, will American forces stop the airstrikes on Manbij?
If Turkish and FSA ground forces do end up attacking Manbij, will that
stoke Turkish nationalism and xenophobia so much that the ground
forces will have to continue across the Euphrates?
As you point out, the logic of the situation says no, no, no, no, no.
The question in my mind is whether actions will be ruled by logic or
by pure emotions.
Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."