Brendan wrote:I'm finding China's conditional support suspect. I really have had a hard time figuring out how much NK PRC are in coordination. It sounds like this conditional support is just another ploy for time (that we have seen time and time again). It shifts the initiative for NK to start the conflict (and they can control and influence that) if U.S. takes the initiative China wouldn't have control over when that would occur. The thought that China actually honors this statement in patently absurd. They would just find an excuse at a later point to come NK's defense. This also buys time for NK so that when they do strike first it is more catastrophic (nuclear). Funny how when a threat to china gets elected (Trump) NK's nuclear program makes years of progress seemingly overnight. I smell a discontinuity.
I would tend to agree. I think the fatal flaw in this strategy may be that it seems to take China at its word. As has been pointed out on GD many times, we have absolutely no reason to believe that the Chinese will hold up their side of the deal.
In addition , would this strategy not require yielding the initiative to NK? This would seem plausible if the initial NK act was limited to a couple of lone Migs jumping a SIGINT plane over the Sea of Japan or something of that nature, but as you alluded to, what if they decide to open with a massive cyber/terrorist/kinetic attack on the South, would this not be yielding a significant amount of tactical advantage to the North. I can't see the pentagon being thrilled about that.
To go a step further, what if the Chinese plan a double cross, and coordinate an all out NK assault on the peninsula as cover for striking one of their neighbors, perhaps even go for the full nine-dash-line scenario?
Experts seem to agree they're perhaps not ready to move now, but who knows, they may miscalculate and decide to roll the dice, or calculate correctly in believing we won't be able to effectively respond to both north Korea and a Chinese land grab simultaneously. Given recent events with regards to our readiness in the region, it seems to me this wouldn't be an entirely uninformed gamble. John has pointed out time and again that the Chinese are waiting for a time of their choosing to attack us, what better time?
Funny how when a threat to china gets elected (Trump) NK's nuclear program makes years of progress seemingly overnight.
Damn! Dis man is woke!
[quote="Brendan"]I'm finding China's conditional support suspect. I really have had a hard time figuring out how much NK PRC are in coordination. It sounds like this conditional support is just another ploy for time (that we have seen time and time again). It shifts the initiative for NK to start the conflict (and they can control and influence that) if U.S. takes the initiative China wouldn't have control over when that would occur. The thought that China actually honors this statement in patently absurd. They would just find an excuse at a later point to come NK's defense. This also buys time for NK so that when they do strike first it is more catastrophic (nuclear). Funny how when a threat to china gets elected (Trump) NK's nuclear program makes years of progress seemingly overnight. I smell a discontinuity.[/quote]
I would tend to agree. I think the fatal flaw in this strategy may be that it seems to take China at its word. As has been pointed out on GD many times, we have absolutely no reason to believe that the Chinese will hold up their side of the deal.
In addition , would this strategy not require yielding the initiative to NK? This would seem plausible if the initial NK act was limited to a couple of lone Migs jumping a SIGINT plane over the Sea of Japan or something of that nature, but as you alluded to, what if they decide to open with a massive cyber/terrorist/kinetic attack on the South, would this not be yielding a significant amount of tactical advantage to the North. I can't see the pentagon being thrilled about that.
To go a step further, what if the Chinese plan a double cross, and coordinate an all out NK assault on the peninsula as cover for striking one of their neighbors, perhaps even go for the full nine-dash-line scenario?
Experts seem to agree they're perhaps not ready to move now, but who knows, they may miscalculate and decide to roll the dice, or calculate correctly in believing we won't be able to effectively respond to both north Korea and a Chinese land grab simultaneously. Given recent events with regards to our readiness in the region, it seems to me this wouldn't be an entirely uninformed gamble. John has pointed out time and again that the Chinese are waiting for a time of their choosing to attack us, what better time?
[quote] Funny how when a threat to china gets elected (Trump) NK's nuclear program makes years of progress seemingly overnight.[/quote] Damn! Dis man is woke!