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Here is a detailed look at the Russians intentions concerning Afghanistan. They think we are doing a better job than is put out in the press.

http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/why-russia-wants-the-us-to-stay-in-afghanistan/

John,
Sorry for being late with the analysis. I give President Trump’s revised Afghanistan strategy 50 to 60 per cent chance to fully succeed. This is given due to events and conditions beyond his or the US sphere of influence. First, it is telling that there were no “tweets” before it was unveiled and it has the finger prints of a staff officer’s authorship with the use of Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economics (DIME) terminology.
Trump used a vague end-state or commonly known as “winning or victory” with metrics to rationalize to the American public or world public opinion. His first task of “honorable and enduring outcome” states that Trump and his advisors realize there is a slim to no chance of Nixon-like “Vietnamization” with the Taliban since they are fighting for “Allah” for a negotiated settlement. Taliban may “negotiate” with the Afghan government to get the US/Coalition forces out of Afghanistan as an operational tactic to increase their odds of capturing Kabul, Kandahar or other urban area. Officially the US is out of the nation building business for domestic consumption, but opposite signals for “clarification” is being aired: https://www.usip.org/publications/2017/08/troops-reforms-regional-role-define-afghanistan-plan
https://www.usip.org/index.php/publications/2017/08/how-build-out-president-trumps-afghan-plan

His second task of “rapid exit are both predictable and unacceptable” signifies to the Taliban/HIG/Other anti-Afghan government forces now know they will be under heavy pressure for the remainder of Trump’s term due to the relaxing of the rules of engagement. He was very clear with “We are in the business of killing terrorists” line in the eyes of the Taliban. Short term will means more “night time” or “raid-a-thons” as my soldiers called them, more “cross border operations/CBO” in to Taliban and HIG safe havens in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and a stand up of TF ODIN on steroids with Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force - Afghanistan (CJSOTF-A) and other governmental agencies (OGA). This was in contrast to Obama’s time schedule that telegraph his intentions. With no ”Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos and violence and terror” there will be more black (CIA/OGA) and white (CJCOFA) CBOs. Trump is switching to a “Conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables, will guide our strategy” in contrast to Obama.
The carrot and stick of “Pakistan has much to gain from partnering” and past Pakistan actions “will have to change” has been refined but has limits as all parties involved know. If the US cuts it aid to Pakistan some of the slack will be taken up with the Chinese and Russians, but they have limits to on their aid/investments. The Chinese will not deploy ground troops.
Interesting was the mentioning of India that could pressure Pakistan with “develop its strategic partnership with India." That is a big stick to use on Pakistan. 90% Afghans that I met despise or hate the Pakistanis due their violation of the Duran Line, harboring the HIG and Taliban in FATA and interfering in their domestic affairs (Pakistan’s ISI). This line of effort will part of the DE of DIME. India can stick a finger in Pakistan’s eye in Afghanistan in retaliation of the Kashmir mess when increasing its Afghanistan effort with little risk or cost.
I foresee a modified Operation Inherent Resolve for Afghanistan spooling up as Iraq/Syria wind down with increased UN and aid effort for the next 3.5 years.

[quote="Guest"]
> Are these brawls as frequent as the migrant street battles in
> Europe? Do gangs of baseball fans sleep in parks and rape and stab
> people on a daily basis? Really, a brawl after a sporting event is
> on par with the ongoing migrant crisis in Europe? Aren't you so
> clever, John...[/quote]

Oh, if you're going to bring that up, then you also have to bring up
similar things in this country, such as these gunshot stats from
Chicago:

Year to Date (8/25/2017)
Shot & Killed: 426
Shot & Wounded: 2044
Total Shot: 2470
Total Homicides: 463

http://heyjackass.com/

I don't call it "clever." I call it "depressing."

[quote="John"]There was a huge brawl yesterday between the Yankees and the Tigers
baseball teams. I wonder what countries the players migrated from?

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/08/24/after-yankees-tigers-brawl-has-baseballs-beanball-culture-gone-too-far[/quote]

Are these brawls as frequent as the migrant street battles in Europe? Do gangs of baseball fans sleep in parks and rape and stab people on a daily basis? Really, a brawl after a sporting event is on par with the ongoing migrant crisis in Europe? Aren't you so clever, John...

[quote="utahbob"]
> There will be no “victory” in Afghanistan as we define it due to
> the local Pashtuns, Hazaras, Kuchi and other ethnics have no
> capacity or desire to “win” as America, western sovereign states
> would define it in the Westphalian system. Afghanistan is
> patchwork “entity” formed for the locals to have a representative
> to deal with foreign powers. I was in Afghanistan during 2004-06
> and ask an Afghan what a foreigner is and you will get a person
> from the next valley or up the road. A Japanese aid worker from
> the UN stated to me that there is no civil society or “Afghan
> identity” for people to rally around. Afghanistan is basically the
> Pashtun super tribe with others submitting to the Pashtuns. He
> stated it will take at least 400 years so the locals can coalesce
> and possibly develop as the Swiss did – plus a trillion dollars to
> install infrastructure. There is no nation electrical, railroad,
> postal, water, or other basic systems that we take for granted in
> Afghanistan. When I was there was no national anthem of
> Afghanistan for their soldiers to sing, just a Pashtun “dance.”
> Ask a Hazara if he is an Afghan and he will say no- he is a Hazara
> not a Pashtun. The greatest enemy of Afghanistan is the
> corruption/patronage/tribal system, the importing of Wahhabism and
> too much and wrong type of foreign aid that is devastating the
> agricultural system and incentivize the growth of opium.[/quote]

What did you think of my article on Trump's Afghanistan speech?

[i][url=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170823.htm#e170823]** 23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'[/url]
** [url]http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170823.htm#e170823[/url][/i]

There will be no “victory” in Afghanistan as we define it due to the local Pashtuns, Hazaras, Kuchi and other ethnics have no capacity or desire to “win” as America, western sovereign states would define it in the Westphalian system. Afghanistan is patchwork “entity” formed for the locals to have a representative to deal with foreign powers. I was in Afghanistan during 2004-06 and ask an Afghan what a foreigner is and you will get a person from the next valley or up the road. A Japanese aid worker from the UN stated to me that there is no civil society or “Afghan identity” for people to rally around. Afghanistan is basically the Pashtun super tribe with others submitting to the Pashtuns. He stated it will take at least 400 years so the locals can coalesce and possibly develop as the Swiss did – plus a trillion dollars to install infrastructure. There is no nation electrical, railroad, postal, water, or other basic systems that we take for granted in Afghanistan. When I was there was no national anthem of Afghanistan for their soldiers to sing, just a Pashtun “dance.” Ask a Hazara if he is an Afghan and he will say no- he is a Hazara not a Pashtun. The greatest enemy of Afghanistan is the corruption/patronage/tribal system, the importing of Wahhabism and too much and wrong type of foreign aid that is devastating the agricultural system and incentivize the growth of opium.

There was a huge brawl yesterday between the Yankees and the Tigers
baseball teams. I wonder what countries the players migrated from?

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/08/24/after-yankees-tigers-brawl-has-baseballs-beanball-culture-gone-too-far

Pakistanis and Iranians riot in camps in Greece and Italy. Turks and Kurds have been fighting in the streets for decades... in Germany! And Brown people generally hate black ones. They clash. In London, the blacks fight each other all the time. Afghans might not have heard of Eritreans, but they clash anyway because of racial and cultural differences.

[quote="John"]Just a note: I doubt that the Afghans and Eritreans had even heard of
each other before arriving in Calais.[/quote]

In Norway the Pakistanis and Somalis fight for Control of drug trade, as for historical disagreements I had a Bosnian and Serbian friend growing up and they were both very good friends With each other. As for Sunni's and Shia split I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe that the same violence between these two Groups would be mitigated by European liberal "values".

Just a note: I doubt that the Afghans and Eritreans had even heard of
each other before arriving in Calais.