27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

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Expand view Topic review: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by NoOneImportant » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:59 am

Great post Tom, a little bit of levity helps make the medicine go down, especially in the darkest of times.

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by Tom Mazanec » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:40 pm

This is from over a decade ago. Great gallows humor now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHa-AvLk4no

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by John » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:14 pm

Trevor wrote: > I've looked at the chart the CDC has been posting and overall, it
> seems to double about once a month. The 1.4 million that the WHO
> warned out is considered the worst-case scenario. So far as they
> know, anyway; I didn't see any discussion of what would happen if
> Ebola got into a war zone. They're also operating under the
> assumption that the cases are being dramatically underreported,
> which is not an unreasonable assumption.
I haven't seen what would happen if Ebola got into a war zone either
-- that's my contribution. But I think it's pretty clear. Preventing
the spread of Ebola requires an aggressive program of things like
temperature screenings at airports and bus stations, contact tracing
and patient isolation. And those things are impossible in a war zone.

Actually I would be shocked if any mainstream source discussed this
issue, since it would be considered too inflammatory. It has to be
left to someone like me who go where angels fear to tread.

John

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by MarvyGuy » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:02 am

Guess time will tell but a bit of good news.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/2014101 ... 0e182.html

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by gerald » Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:14 am

tommy wrote:Free PDF of The Hot Zone by Richard Preston. This book really covers Ebola and lets you understand what we are dealing with.

Read about the protection and bio hazard equipment the scientists were required to use while studying the virus in a TEST TUBE. Its criminal that the same protective gear was not required while caring for the Liberian patient.

http://learn.flvs.net/educator/common/E ... otZone.pdf
In a sense, the earth is mounting an immune response against the human species. It is
beginning to react to the human parasite, the flooding infection of people, the dead spots
of concrete all over the planet, the cancerous rot-outs in Europe, Japan and the United
States, thick with replicating primates, the colonies enlarging and spreading and
threatening to shock the biosphere with mass extinctions. Perhaps the biosphere does not
'like' the idea of five billion humans. Or it could also be said that the extreme
amplification of human race, which has occurred only in the past hundred years or so,
has suddenly produced a very large quantity of meat, which is sitting everywhere in the
biosphere and may not be able to defend itself against a life form that might want to
consume it. Nature has interesting ways of balance itself. The rain forest has its own
defenses. The earth's immune system, so to speak, has recognized the presence of the
human species and is starting to kick in.
The above quote is very interesting -- nature always has the last laugh and holds all of the trump cards.

It may be getting VERY interesting and not in a nice way.

The Earths magnetic field is rapidly diminishing and the magnetic poles are moving at a rapidly increasing rate. Considered to be a precursor to a magnetic pole shift and possibly a geographic pole shift as well.
The University of California - Berkeley just came out with an article stating that "Earth's magnetic field could flip within a human lifetime" http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 170841.htm A collapse of the magnetic field would provide no protection against a CME which could destroy the world's electric grid. --- Airports are renaming landing strips because of the changes in the Earth's magnetic field.
http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2013/12/1 ... tic-field/

Ad to this about 12,000 years ago the the Pleistocene ended very abruptly. "
The famous Beresovka mammoth first drew attention to the preserving properties of being quick-frozen when buttercups were found in its mouth and undigested food in its stomach. This was no gradual event--it had to be sudden!

And the event was worldwide. The mammoths of Siberia became extinct about the same time as the giant rhinoceros of Europe; the mastodons of Alaska and the bison of Siberia ended simultaneously. The same is true of the Asian elephants and the American camels. http://s8int.com/boneyard4.html This indicates a geographic pole shift.

When the geographic poles shift a temperate area are can become the arctic as indicated above.

Also we may be entering a Maunder minimum that reduces global temperatures and crop growing areas.

It appears that all of the above could happen at the same time -- a perfect storm. Are we about to be a replay of the end of Atlantis? ( not even counting our own stupidity )

From the tin foil hat crowd , some " friendly aliens" say Earth is a very poor planet for an advanced civilization to develop on because Earth is inherently an unstable planet.

hmmm I guess we shall see.

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by gerald » Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:00 pm

and for today's humor -- a 2001 commercial -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHa-AvLk4no

You can't make this up, no one would believe you.

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by tommy » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:53 pm

Free PDF of The Hot Zone by Richard Preston. This book really covers Ebola and lets you understand what we are dealing with.

Read about the protection and bio hazard equipment the scientists were required to use while studying the virus in a TEST TUBE. Its criminal that the same protective gear was not required while caring for the Liberian patient.

http://learn.flvs.net/educator/common/E ... otZone.pdf
In a sense, the earth is mounting an immune response against the human species. It is
beginning to react to the human parasite, the flooding infection of people, the dead spots
of concrete all over the planet, the cancerous rot-outs in Europe, Japan and the United
States, thick with replicating primates, the colonies enlarging and spreading and
threatening to shock the biosphere with mass extinctions. Perhaps the biosphere does not
'like' the idea of five billion humans. Or it could also be said that the extreme
amplification of human race, which has occurred only in the past hundred years or so,
has suddenly produced a very large quantity of meat, which is sitting everywhere in the
biosphere and may not be able to defend itself against a life form that might want to
consume it. Nature has interesting ways of balance itself. The rain forest has its own
defenses. The earth's immune system, so to speak, has recognized the presence of the
human species and is starting to kick in.

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by Tom Mazanec » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:32 pm

Unfortunately, it's looking like it's too late to contain the virus. Even if the military of the affected nations and their neighbors completely seal them off from the outside world, it's not likely to stop the virus.
Trevor, I am actually surprised (and getting just a tiny bit hopeful) that it has not spread yet to the neighboring countries, except the Nigeria outbreak and the one case in Senegal weeks ago.
Of course, with my luck in making predictions and observations, tomorrow we will hear about two more African countries...

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by Trevor » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:21 pm

In the case of Liberia and Sierra Leone, part of the reason they're so vulnerable is that both of them had brutal civil wars pretty recently. They ruined the country, left themselves bankrupt and their infrastructure is in ruins, especially health care.

I've looked at the chart the CDC has been posting and overall, it seems to double about once a month. The 1.4 million that the WHO warned out is considered the worst-case scenario. So far as they know, anyway; I didn't see any discussion of what would happen if Ebola got into a war zone. They're also operating under the assumption that the cases are being dramatically underreported, which is not an unreasonable assumption.

Unfortunately, it's looking like it's too late to contain the virus. Even if the military of the affected nations and their neighbors completely seal them off from the outside world, it's not likely to stop the virus.

Re: 27-Sep-14 World View -- WHO: Unprecedented emergencies

by Jack Edwards » Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:14 pm

John said,
So I'm wondering:

Were they underestimating the time a month ago?
Are the overestimating the time now?
Has the doubling time actually increased because people are
getting better educated?
Has the doubling time actually increased because the population is
getting saturated? (This is contradicted by reports that Ebola is
spreading to new areas.)

The WHO spokesman said that there are 1000 new infections per week
now, and there will be 10000 new infections per week in two months.
That implies that the doubling time is log(10)/log(2) = 3.3 weeks.
I believe the discrepancy we're seeing in reported doubling rates comes back to differences in the countries with the infections. Specifically, Liberia's doubling rate is faster than it's neighbors.

Looking deeper into the data, different countries are reporting different doubling times:
Image

This shows three countries with three different doubling rates:
Just eye-balling the chart I get:
Liberia 2000 to 4000 ~ 3 weeks
Sierra Leone 1000 to 2000 ~ 3.5 weeks
Guinea 500 to 1000 ~ 4 weeks

Why are infection doubling rates different in different countries?
Under reporting?
Different cultural practices?
Different attitudes towards medicine?
Different population density?
Different poverty levels?

My gut tells me that the doubling rate for this disease in the US and other developed Western countries will be slower; greater than 4 weeks.

Still - it's only a matter of time if not contained.

Regards,

Jack

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