by NoOneImportant » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:45 am
Xi is proving himself to be a formidable adversary. Authoritative, quiet, focused, and inscrutable. While digesting this evenings description of Russian events, it occurred to me that if we watch what Russia does, and what China does, that perhaps the following might be feasible.
Much like the 1939 Nazi - Soviet non-aggression pact signed on 23 Aug of 1939, a pact that led to a Nazi invasion of Poland 8 days later, with the Soviets invading Eastern Poland several weeks later. While current events aren't exactly the same a similarity may be seen, Whereas if the Russians and Chinese did not enter into a pact, then at least an understanding between Russia and China might have come out of the events of the Syrian debacle of 2013. That is, there appears to be a cooperative arrangement between Russia, and China regarding Russia's territorial ambitions in the west, and China's territorial ambitions in the east. But what if the entire East/South China Sea is a temporary distraction i.e., theater writ large, targeted to distract the Russians. A distraction targeted not just for the world, but rather to lull Russia into a false sense of security, and not just a false sense of security but to maneuver Russia into an position of international isolation. What if the real Chinese teritorial prize is all of eastern Russia.
China encourages Russian adventurism in the West, and China purports to affect the seizing of some militarily inconsequential islands, and advertises the intention to seize more - the military cost of which is virtually zero. In actuality the real cost to China, from a military perspective, is inconsequential. China encourages Russia to engage in real combat in the west, or at the very least takes a position that protects Russian interests wherever they arise. The states that interest Putin/Russia are: the Ukraine, the Baltic States, and perhaps even Poland; Russia correspondingly invests real resources: combat troops, logistical resources, materiel - all in western adventures. Russia becomes irrevocably committed to real warfare in the west, and China simply takes possession of a preoccupied Russia's entire eastern 1/3 of Russia, and perspectively most of Central Asia - the xxxxstans.
What would Russia's recourse be? Certainly Russia could nuke China, but not without an expectant Chinese retaliation - an event where Russia would certainly be greatly harmed. From a strict demographic point of view the population numbers are quite lop-sided roughly the current populations of Russia and China -- 142 million vs 1.3 billion, respectively i.e., China has a roughly 10:1 population superiority. But would the Russians be so inclined to nuke China? Or would China be able to get away scott-free as it were? Might China even be able to get away with seizing much of central Asia, if they could work out the logistics? Perhaps the reason for China's sending a thousand troops into northern India, and quickly withdraw them, so that an already nervous India is kept off balance; who, in reality, does China have to worry about, or fear - not NATO, and certainly not Obama? Only Russia, and if Russia is inextricably engaged in combat operations in Eastern Europe, what are Putin's choices?
Putin recognizing his jeopardy would account for the Russian withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine, for it certainly isn't a military defeat causing the Russian retreat from Ukraine. As for 100,000 Russian troops exercising in the Russian east striking fear into the heart of the 2.5 million man PLA, I believe that Putin will have to do something a bit more convincing.
Regarding Putin's choices, from a conventional conflict perspective -- non-nuclear -- for the Russians it would mean either engaging in a two front war, or cutting their engagement in the west to focus on saving the east. Should China wait until the Russian commitment in the west is irrevocable, what would Russia's choices be? To that end China has been hacking a significant DOD logistical contractor(s) - extracting logistical know-how without having to self-develop the expertise, and know-how to be used by China in the support of extended military operations taking place outside of mainland China proper.
http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/pr ... ontractors
Just a few thoughts.
Xi is proving himself to be a formidable adversary. Authoritative, quiet, focused, and inscrutable. While digesting this evenings description of Russian events, it occurred to me that if we watch what Russia does, and what China does, that perhaps the following might be feasible.
Much like the 1939 Nazi - Soviet non-aggression pact signed on 23 Aug of 1939, a pact that led to a Nazi invasion of Poland 8 days later, with the Soviets invading Eastern Poland several weeks later. While current events aren't exactly the same a similarity may be seen, Whereas if the Russians and Chinese did not enter into a pact, then at least an understanding between Russia and China might have come out of the events of the Syrian debacle of 2013. That is, there appears to be a cooperative arrangement between Russia, and China regarding Russia's territorial ambitions in the west, and China's territorial ambitions in the east. But what if the entire East/South China Sea is a temporary distraction i.e., theater writ large, targeted to distract the Russians. A distraction targeted not just for the world, but rather to lull Russia into a false sense of security, and not just a false sense of security but to maneuver Russia into an position of international isolation. What if the real Chinese teritorial prize is all of eastern Russia.
China encourages Russian adventurism in the West, and China purports to affect the seizing of some militarily inconsequential islands, and advertises the intention to seize more - the military cost of which is virtually zero. In actuality the real cost to China, from a military perspective, is inconsequential. China encourages Russia to engage in real combat in the west, or at the very least takes a position that protects Russian interests wherever they arise. The states that interest Putin/Russia are: the Ukraine, the Baltic States, and perhaps even Poland; Russia correspondingly invests real resources: combat troops, logistical resources, materiel - all in western adventures. Russia becomes irrevocably committed to real warfare in the west, and China simply takes possession of a preoccupied Russia's entire eastern 1/3 of Russia, and perspectively most of Central Asia - the xxxxstans.
What would Russia's recourse be? Certainly Russia could nuke China, but not without an expectant Chinese retaliation - an event where Russia would certainly be greatly harmed. From a strict demographic point of view the population numbers are quite lop-sided roughly the current populations of Russia and China -- 142 million vs 1.3 billion, respectively i.e., China has a roughly 10:1 population superiority. But would the Russians be so inclined to nuke China? Or would China be able to get away scott-free as it were? Might China even be able to get away with seizing much of central Asia, if they could work out the logistics? Perhaps the reason for China's sending a thousand troops into northern India, and quickly withdraw them, so that an already nervous India is kept off balance; who, in reality, does China have to worry about, or fear - not NATO, and certainly not Obama? Only Russia, and if Russia is inextricably engaged in combat operations in Eastern Europe, what are Putin's choices?
Putin recognizing his jeopardy would account for the Russian withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine, for it certainly isn't a military defeat causing the Russian retreat from Ukraine. As for 100,000 Russian troops exercising in the Russian east striking fear into the heart of the 2.5 million man PLA, I believe that Putin will have to do something a bit more convincing.
Regarding Putin's choices, from a conventional conflict perspective -- non-nuclear -- for the Russians it would mean either engaging in a two front war, or cutting their engagement in the west to focus on saving the east. Should China wait until the Russian commitment in the west is irrevocable, what would Russia's choices be? To that end China has been hacking a significant DOD logistical contractor(s) - extracting logistical know-how without having to self-develop the expertise, and know-how to be used by China in the support of extended military operations taking place outside of mainland China proper. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/press-releases/sasc-investigation-finds-chinese-intrusions-into-key-defense-contractors
Just a few thoughts.