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I remember the China-Vietnam war of [b]1979[/b]. The Chinese PLA was badly mauled by the [b]battle hardened[/b] Vietnamese army. Today, however, neither army is battle hardened. It remains to be seen if the Vietnamese could repeat what they did decades ago.

I think a war between China and Vietnam would allow people to truly gauge China's military abilities. Many suspect that China is not nearly as capable as it pretends to be. And if Vietnam defeats China (which it possible could), China would face roll backs on every front. (Even if the war became of quagmire, with neither side willing to surrender, it would drastically drain China's resources.) I think other Asian nations would move quickly to reclaim lost territory. China's government would face internal collapse (like the Argentine military government in the wake of the Falklands war defeat).

The Russians are another factor. China and Russia's marriage of convenience is already under severe strain as both compete for central Asian sphere's of influence. That could lead to some heavy handed ([b]and unforgivable[/b]) dealings by he Russians. The Chinese would be left further embittered against the Russians (who have been shafting the Chinese for centuries.)

18-May-14 World View -- China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence

Taiwanese businesses bear the brunt of Vietnam's riots

[i][url=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140518.htm#e140518]** 18-May-14 World View -- China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence[/url]
** [url]http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140518.htm#e140518[/url][/i]




Contents:
China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence
Taiwanese businesses bear the brunt of Vietnam's riots
Generational History of Vietnam


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea,
Taiwan, Vietnamese Kingdom, Champa Kingdom, Tay-Son rebellion