by NoOneImportant » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:29 pm
Great observation Sy.
The crippling of the US power grid is one of the prospective "black-swan" events that might disable American society as we currently enjoy it.
The two most probable grid scenarios are: 1.) the anonymous detonation of a nuke(s), launched from the proximity of the continental U.S. - the Gulf of Mexico best suits the need - into the upper atmosphere thus generating an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The resultant EMP causes significant DC currents to flow in the US grid long-line electrical transmission lines. Those currents are felt by the high voltage transformers at both ends of the line causing a shift in the transformer's operating point. The shift, even thought temporary, results in high frequency "noise" that causes excessive heat generation in the transformers resulting in transformer burn-out. The transformers are very large, highly specialized, custom designed, and not domestically produced - they take months to produce, and there are roughly 5000 of then of various types nationwide. The prospect of an EMP is quite scary.
2.) The second possible threat to the grid is through a cyber attack of the networked control systems that "manage" the operation of the various parts of the grid - hack the network(s), rename or delete a critical file necessary for proper system operation, then the system "crashes" no longer managing anything - this is how 30,000 Saudi ARAMCO PCs were taken down last year. Depending upon how the grid network is structured and designed the various parts may, or may not function autonomously. On the other hand the beauty of cyber anything is that an attack may be staged and that all the parts may be struck coincidentally; thus assuring that none of the grid continues to function. The down side of a cyber attack - from the attacker's perspective - is that permanent long term grid damage is not assured by crashing the control system network(s) that run the grid. To permanently damage the grid from a cyber attack requires not just to crash the control system network(s) but also a knowledge of the specific grid structure and to cause a network failure that stresses and destroys a critical long lead time component of the grid - this is a much, much more difficult task, as it requires an intimate knowledge of the physical grid design and structure.
Great observation Sy.
The crippling of the US power grid is one of the prospective "black-swan" events that might disable American society as we currently enjoy it.
The two most probable grid scenarios are: 1.) the anonymous detonation of a nuke(s), launched from the proximity of the continental U.S. - the Gulf of Mexico best suits the need - into the upper atmosphere thus generating an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The resultant EMP causes significant DC currents to flow in the US grid long-line electrical transmission lines. Those currents are felt by the high voltage transformers at both ends of the line causing a shift in the transformer's operating point. The shift, even thought temporary, results in high frequency "noise" that causes excessive heat generation in the transformers resulting in transformer burn-out. The transformers are very large, highly specialized, custom designed, and not domestically produced - they take months to produce, and there are roughly 5000 of then of various types nationwide. The prospect of an EMP is quite scary.
2.) The second possible threat to the grid is through a cyber attack of the networked control systems that "manage" the operation of the various parts of the grid - hack the network(s), rename or delete a critical file necessary for proper system operation, then the system "crashes" no longer managing anything - this is how 30,000 Saudi ARAMCO PCs were taken down last year. Depending upon how the grid network is structured and designed the various parts may, or may not function autonomously. On the other hand the beauty of cyber anything is that an attack may be staged and that all the parts may be struck coincidentally; thus assuring that none of the grid continues to function. The down side of a cyber attack - from the attacker's perspective - is that permanent long term grid damage is not assured by crashing the control system network(s) that run the grid. To permanently damage the grid from a cyber attack requires not just to crash the control system network(s) but also a knowledge of the specific grid structure and to cause a network failure that stresses and destroys a critical long lead time component of the grid - this is a much, much more difficult task, as it requires an intimate knowledge of the physical grid design and structure.