NoOneImportant wrote:And what happened in Georgia is what made me so sure that the Russians would use force in the Ukraine. One of my human maxims is: past performance is future performance; you will do in the future what you have done in the past.
Logistically any significant military operation requires 30 - 90 days to stage; so Putin is working up to the end of the first 30 days. Comm intelligence should finger any significant military unit movements. If Yanukovich invites the Russians in, I have no idea what will happen, it depends upon the control Yanukovich has over the military, and the willingness of the demonstrators to accept Russian presence.
I believe Russia will invade as well. I think the pattern will follow what the Russians did in
Chechnya and
Georgia: (A very simple explanation)
1)
Proxy war (Russia picks a stooge and supplies them with money, weapons, equipment, and Russian (perhaps some non ethnic Russians, like cossacks or even Chechens from Kadroy's puppet security forces) "volunteers. The conflict that follows usually ends in the first round with the proxy being
initially defeated.
2)
All out Russian invasion. The reasons could be a
response to a staged terrorist attack (The 99' Moscow apartment bombings) or to
repel a supposed invasion (Georgia-2008).
Everyone really knows what is really going on, but some will play along with the charade. Governments will shamefully pay lip service to Russian claims. I think spineless Europe will do little.
The Ukrainians will get outside help in the form of weapons, supplies and volunteers (however little).
Here is where it gets dangerous. Russia hits targets on the other side of the border (Poland, Hungary, Romania, or Moldova). Russia will say it is attacking rebel safe havens and resupply points (whether true or not). What will NATO do?
That is the TEST the Russians are looking for. Will NATO back down? Is NATO really willing to come to Hungary' or Poland's aid?
[quote="NoOneImportant"]And what happened in Georgia is what made me so sure that the Russians would use force in the Ukraine. One of my human maxims is: past performance is future performance; you will do in the future what you have done in the past.
Logistically any significant military operation requires 30 - 90 days to stage; so Putin is working up to the end of the first 30 days. Comm intelligence should finger any significant military unit movements. If Yanukovich invites the Russians in, I have no idea what will happen, it depends upon the control Yanukovich has over the military, and the willingness of the demonstrators to accept Russian presence.[/quote]
I believe Russia will invade as well. I think the pattern will follow what the Russians did in [b]Chechnya[/b] and [b]Georgia[/b]: (A very simple explanation)
1) [b]Proxy war[/b] (Russia picks a stooge and supplies them with money, weapons, equipment, and Russian (perhaps some non ethnic Russians, like cossacks or even Chechens from Kadroy's puppet security forces) "volunteers. The conflict that follows usually ends in the first round with the proxy being [b]initially defeated.[/b]
2) [b]All out Russian invasion[/b]. The reasons could be a [b]response [/b]to a staged terrorist attack (The 99' Moscow apartment bombings) or to[b] repel [/b]a supposed invasion (Georgia-2008).
Everyone really knows what is really going on, but some will play along with the charade. Governments will shamefully pay lip service to Russian claims. I think spineless Europe will do little.
The Ukrainians will get outside help in the form of weapons, supplies and volunteers (however little). [b]Here is where it gets dangerous[/b]. Russia hits targets on the other side of the border (Poland, Hungary, Romania, or Moldova). Russia will say it is attacking rebel safe havens and resupply points (whether true or not). What will NATO do? [b]That is the TEST the Russians are looking for[/b]. Will NATO back down? Is NATO really willing to come to Hungary' or Poland's aid?