Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John,

I have been thinking about societal divides in Egypt for some time and your recent analysis is square on when it comes to internecine divides based upon cultural or ethnic devides and even perhaps religious divides. I think you are right that it will not be a civil war based upon these lines. But...

I do think the possibility of civil war in Egypt is still a big possibility in the next 10 years based upon a different divide altogether. That divide is economic and it could/would pit the military/economic elites against the starving commoners who have little to lose. Many do not see this coming yet but I do think the military does see and anticipate this. That is why they are so anxious to quickly install a new, post-MB, quasi democratic government. It will insulate them temporarily from the perceptions of the common public that they have responsibility for the economic situation.

Egypt is now an energy and food net importer and relies upon tourism and some luxury food exports (fresh fruits primarily)and foreign aid to bridge the foreign currency deficit needed to pay for these imports. With the violence and unsettled political situation we all know that tourism income has disappeared leaving foreign aid as key. But this foreign aid is not guaranteed and does not trickle down to the common citizen in the way that much of tourism income did. The margins of Egyptian society are increasingly unemployed and cannot meet basics needs of food and cooking fuel, let alone transport fuel. And these needed goods as they become scarce domestically (because there isn't enough foreign currency to purchase the exports) are suffering from rapid inflation in domestic currency terms. The divide between have and have nots in Egypt is down to the basics of life - not just to standards of living and that portion of the economy is imploding. The desperation engendered by this will leave little room to govern peacefully and successfully. International bond market rejection of Egyptian borrowing will not only be related to domestic upheavels but to this basic current account imbalance and it will strike hard.

I believe the reason the recent military coup occured was because they could see the absolute failure of MB Morsi to deal with these economic issues (whether or not MBM could have done so is a separate issue). They premptively took power to avoid it being clear that it is an economic issue and to blame it upon MBM incompetency and buy time on the economic issues. A new puppet government will also similarly buy time. But soon that economic reality will kick in again and that perception clock will run out of time. I believe neither the military nor the elite will be able to stave off the reality of the situation long term. And with an armed Magreb and Sinai to goad and arm the economic underdog commoner I think a viable economic divide will present itself to fuel eventual civil war/generational war.

John,

I have been thinking about societal divides in Egypt for some time and your recent analysis is square on when it comes to internecine divides based upon cultural or ethnic devides and even perhaps religious divides. I think you are right that it will not be a civil war based upon these lines. But...

I do think the possibility of civil war in Egypt is still a big possibility in the next 10 years based upon a different divide altogether. That divide is economic and it could/would pit the military/economic elites against the starving commoners who have little to lose. Many do not see this coming yet but I do think the military does see and anticipate this. That is why they are so anxious to quickly install a new, post-MB, quasi democratic government. It will insulate them temporarily from the perceptions of the common public that they have responsibility for the economic situation.

Egypt is now an energy and food net importer and relies upon tourism and some luxury food exports (fresh fruits primarily)and foreign aid to bridge the foreign currency deficit needed to pay for these imports. With the violence and unsettled political situation we all know that tourism income has disappeared leaving foreign aid as key. But this foreign aid is not guaranteed and does not trickle down to the common citizen in the way that much of tourism income did. The margins of Egyptian society are increasingly unemployed and cannot meet basics needs of food and cooking fuel, let alone transport fuel. And these needed goods as they become scarce domestically (because there isn't enough foreign currency to purchase the exports) are suffering from rapid inflation in domestic currency terms. The divide between have and have nots in Egypt is down to the basics of life - not just to standards of living and that portion of the economy is imploding. The desperation engendered by this will leave little room to govern peacefully and successfully. International bond market rejection of Egyptian borrowing will not only be related to domestic upheavels but to this basic current account imbalance and it will strike hard.

I believe the reason the recent military coup occured was because they could see the absolute failure of MB Morsi to deal with these economic issues (whether or not MBM could have done so is a separate issue). They premptively took power to avoid it being clear that it is an economic issue and to blame it upon MBM incompetency and buy time on the economic issues. A new puppet government will also similarly buy time. But soon that economic reality will kick in again and that perception clock will run out of time. I believe neither the military nor the elite will be able to stave off the reality of the situation long term. And with an armed Magreb and Sinai to goad and arm the economic underdog commoner I think a viable economic divide will present itself to fuel eventual civil war/generational war.

21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt

** 21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130821



Contents:
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis
Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt
Israel fortifies border as jihadism grows in Sinai


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi,
Coptic Christians, Turkey, Israel, Tzipi Livni, Bernard-Henri Levy,
Sinai, Saudi Arabia