Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I can't remember who it was, but some major analyst has been
saying for years that the best thing that local governments could
do is to start demolishing houses in foreclosure. If they had
been doing that since 2007, I wonder if the construction industry
would be better off today.

I think I see what is coming, though perhaps having parents who survived the Depression in the country colors my view a bit.

In the 30's, despite food shortages worldwide, the US government went to farms, bought a number of cattle determined by the size of the farm and buried many as unfit for human consumption. The purpose was to drive up prices for farm products, because farmers couldn't survive the prices as they stood, cattle would barely pay for the shipping charges, or less. Many farmers hated this, but needed the money. Pigs were in 33, cattle were in 35. Decently sized cattle were given to the relief program, but the dust bowl years didn't just starve people, cattle were hungry too.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/timeline/dustbowl/

I do believe something similar may be happening in housing. If the FED intends to buy and hold mortgages forever, can it be they'll target homes with no occupants, and simply let them rot? It's the same program, but for housing instead of farm products.

[quote="tim"]John,

You said "These figures make it clear that you should not buy a house under almost any circumstances. Five years from, your house will be worth far less than it is today."

I agree with you that house prices will continue to fall and the housing market will get worse.

However, I think a good plan is to buy a cheap house out in the country with some land. Even though the housing prices will continue to fall and you will lose money you will atleast have land to work with and a place to go when the cities get ugly.

During the Great Depression many people lived on farms or in the country. If we had a repeat of the Great Depression, let alone something worse, how many millions in the cities would starve? Do you think these people would just lie down and die when the food stopped coming in?

A house away from major cities will give you an opportunity to survive. Not only will you be away from major nuclear targets, but you may be able to live off the land. Not an easy life but it would beat the anarchy coming to the cities.

When I think of the coming crisis I see Eastern Europe during WWII like conditions for places with high populations that depend on infrastructure to live.

Or am I being too pessimistic?[/quote]


I don't think things will get that bad --

The war between the Germans and the Russians became an extremely barbaric brutal scorched earth affair. In Leningrad things got so bad that ---

"Some ate rats, cats, dogs, sawdust, wallpaper paste–anything they could try to digest. Roving gangs preyed on lone pedestrians as people resorted to cannibalism."

http://www.pbs.org/behindcloseddoors/in-depth/stalin-stands.html

John,

You said "These figures make it clear that you should not buy a house under almost any circumstances. Five years from, your house will be worth far less than it is today."

I agree with you that house prices will continue to fall and the housing market will get worse.

However, I think a good plan is to buy a cheap house out in the country with some land. Even though the housing prices will continue to fall and you will lose money you will atleast have land to work with and a place to go when the cities get ugly.

During the Great Depression many people lived on farms or in the country. If we had a repeat of the Great Depression, let alone something worse, how many millions in the cities would starve? Do you think these people would just lie down and die when the food stopped coming in?

A house away from major cities will give you an opportunity to survive. Not only will you be away from major nuclear targets, but you may be able to live off the land. Not an easy life but it would beat the anarchy coming to the cities.

When I think of the coming crisis I see Eastern Europe during WWII like conditions for places with high populations that depend on infrastructure to live.

Or am I being too pessimistic?

26-Sep-12 World View -- China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about disputed islands

Media gushes over home prices, triggering great hilarity

[i][url=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e120926#e120926]** 26-Sep-12 World View -- China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about disputed islands[/url]
** [url]http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e120926#e120926[/url][/i]



Contents:
Japan and Taiwan have military confrontation with water cannons
China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
China launches first aircraft carrier into formal service
Media gushes over home prices, triggering great hilarity


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Taiwan, Senkaku, Diaoyu,
Case/Shiller report, home prices