1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

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Expand view Topic review: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

by Tom Acre » Fri Nov 12, 2010 3:39 pm

vincecate wrote:
Tom Acre wrote: And when nuclear fusion technology matures, it will become possible (if not economically feasible) to fashion extremely pure gold out of other metals.
With mature nuclear fusion technology it becomes practical to migrate out into the galaxy too.
You lost me, I understand how nuclear reactions make one metal into another, but don't see how it directly relates to space travel.

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

by vincecate » Fri Nov 12, 2010 10:01 am

Tom Acre wrote: And when nuclear fusion technology matures, it will become possible (if not economically feasible) to fashion extremely pure gold out of other metals.
With mature nuclear fusion technology it becomes practical to migrate out into the galaxy too.

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

by Tom Acre » Fri Nov 12, 2010 9:44 am

With mining technologies growing by leaps and bounds and spreading to areas of the world only seen by "modern medieval" (or even neolithic) people, a new Comstock Lode could occur at any time. Most people don't realize this, but diamonds superior to those occurring naturally are now manufactured. And when nuclear fusion technology matures, it will become possible (if not economically feasible) to fashion extremely pure gold out of other metals.

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

by vincecate » Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:35 am

OLD1953 wrote:Silver. Comstock Lode. 16 to 1. No reply, so I'll amplify.

The traditional ratio of silver to gold went to the devil when the actual material ratio went through the roof while the Comstock Lode was mined out. For silver to return to a 16 to 1 ratio would require a decline in existing silver of large proportions. Given that photography is no longer a major sink (sans xray records, and THEY are rapidly being replaced by CAT scans) as it was, and silver would seem unlikely to ever return to 16 to 1. At 22 to 1, silver is overpriced or gold is cheap - and I'd wager on the former at this time.
The current gold:silver ratio is like 50:1. So if you are arguing for a 22:1 ratio then silver needs to about double in price while gold holds still. So I don't follow your logic.

I think the world is sort of in the process of realizing it needs an honest money to keep track of trade balances etc. By using dollars it lets the US print a trillion dollars per year and put all of the benefit inside the US and the painful inflation outside the US. This is a bad deal for the rest of the world. Gold is good if people are using paper money and central banks are holding gold in vaults. But for real coins that people can hold in their hands, silver is a better money. I think what is going on is that silver is becoming money again. If this is accurate, then industrial uses are not the real issue.

Because silver has been used up over the last 30 years, there is actually very little stockpile. There is much more gold sitting around than silver.

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to ealth benefits

by vincecate » Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:25 am

vincecate wrote:
John wrote: As you know, I've been saying that gold has been in a bubble for several years. At today's prices, even mainstream pundits are talking about gold being in a bubble. What's your opinion?
Regression toward the mean does not work when one side is cheating and the other side is honest. Since 1914 the dollar is a dishonest measuring stick. You need to be very careful when using it.
John, you never really responded to my above post. You must agree that the dollar of 2010 is not as valuable as the dollar of 1914. Right? Even if the exchange rate to some other paper currencies is the same, the buying power in real commodities is not. Even though there is 200 years of stable prices before 1914 you do not expect current prices to return to far below 1914 levels so that the average comes back down to 1914 levels. Inflation messes with your return to the mean idea. Gold would have to have some negative value for many decades to bring the average back down to 1930 price for gold. Not going to happen. Similar thing will be clear about 1980 price for gold in a few years.

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Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to health benefits

by OLD1953 » Sat Oct 02, 2010 1:15 am

Silver. Comstock Lode. 16 to 1. No reply, so I'll amplify.

The traditional ratio of silver to gold went to the devil when the actual material ratio went through the roof while the Comstock Lode was mined out. For silver to return to a 16 to 1 ratio would require a decline in existing silver of large proportions. Given that photography is no longer a major sink (sans xray records, and THEY are rapidly being replaced by CAT scans) as it was, and silver would seem unlikely to ever return to 16 to 1. At 22 to 1, silver is overpriced or gold is cheap - and I'd wager on the former at this time.

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to ealth benefits

by vincecate » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:41 pm

John wrote: As you know, I've been saying that gold has been in a bubble for several years. At today's prices, even mainstream pundits are talking about gold being in a bubble. What's your opinion?
You have to look at gold and the dollar as two currencies. The world gets about 1% more gold each year and maybe 6 to 10% more dollars on a typical year. They print a trillion new dollars per year now and 70 or 80 years ago it was around a billion new dollars each year. So dollars are being produced about 1,000 times faster now, but gold is produced only a little faster. So gold is never going back to $20/oz, right?

The real danger now is that people might stop buying US treasuries and then as the huge number of existing bonds come due, the US will print huge numbers of new dollars to cover them (yes, sell bonds to the Fed who prints). Treasuries are paying less than the real inflation rate and probably will keep doing so as inflation goes up. Also, when all of the deficit has to be covered by printing, as they are not able to sell new bonds, that will cause more printing too. But the real shocker is when several trillion short term bonds come due the first year and nobody wants to roll them over. They just want their cash. Printing of dollars will be far faster than it has ever been before. And gold will just get another 1% each year. So the exchange rate between gold and dollars will shift.

In the same way nobody now thinks gold will ever go back down to $20/oz, I think within a few years nobody will expect it to ever go back down below $5,000.

Regression toward the mean does not work when one side is cheating and the other side is honest. Since 1914 the dollar is a dishonest measuring stick. You need to be very careful when using it.

Another way to look at this is that either bonds or gold is a bubble. For a bubble to pop the production of that asset has to increase until the supply exceeds demand and the price goes down. What is easier to ramp up production for, bonds or gold? Companies are turning on their bond printers already and ramping up fast. The treasury is already printing bonds at record speed. Gold is at 1% per year and steady or decreasing. So which will pop first?

When the bond bubble pops people will get cash for their bonds as they come due. So there will be far more dollars created. So the exchange rate between dollars and gold will change such that gold becomes priced even higher.

In a bubble the common man is buying the asset. Today the common man is selling gold jewelry and has never even seen a gold coin, let alone invested in one. So many people are in bonds (including of course the biggest buyer, the Fed) that interest rates are near zero percent. That means bonds are very highly valued. So which looks like a bubble?

While I am ranting, one more thing. When I buy gold jewelry from people almost everyone is happy with the price I offer. When I try to buy silver jewelry almost everyone thinks the price is too cheap and does not sell. My percentage off the spot price is the same for gold and silver. I also think silver is too cheap. Silver is only like 22 times what it was 200 years ago, but there is more than 1,000 times more dollars being printed each year.

One more edit. John, to me you are like brainy superman in how you can understand and explain so many things about the world. But you have this one kryptonite type problem in not really groking how continued printing of paper money makes it worth less all the time. I think shows up in your views of gold, and even a bit on your stock market comments. :-)

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to ealth benefits

by The Grey Badger » Fri Oct 01, 2010 10:51 am

ridgel wrote: (snip)

As far as overpriced movie popcorn and hotel minibars - no doubt. But I'm willing to bet no one ever went broke and lost their family because of those two. Concentrate on the big expenses and the frequent expenses and the rest falls into line. For working people, buying a bag of prewashed veggies is probably a good deal in terms of time saved and staying healthy. And if a $3 cup of coffee is your thing, it's a heck of a lot cheaper than shrinks and prozac. Know what you're spending, but keep it in perspective.
With three of these you're buying something else besides the product. With the precut veggies, as you said, you're buying time. With the coffee shop coffee, you're buying a seat in a social space - may as well point out that it's cheaper to drink your beer at home from a 6-pack than to go to the pub: rather misses the point.

And bottled water makes the best car stash because it doesn't leak. You can fill up a cooler jug, of course, and refill your own water bottle from it, but even so, if you're on the road, you're best off with a 12-pack of those horrible overpriced bottles.

Re: 1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to ealth benefits

by John » Fri Oct 01, 2010 8:04 am

Dear Vince,
vincecate wrote: > John, see how I stay on topic again? :-) My mind is
> occupied...
Yes, it's a truly amazing and wonderful skill.

As you know, I've been saying that gold has been in a bubble for
several years. At today's prices, even mainstream pundits are
talking about gold being in a bubble. What's your opinion?

John

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