by Trevor » Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:14 am
I'm not sure how strong the Russian military really is. During the Cold War, a lot of their strength existed only on paper, with many of their tanks and aircraft either junk or poorly maintained. Russia lost more soldiers fighting in Chechnya than we did in Iraq and Afghanistan, over a shorter period of time. This is a tiny province of a million people, covering around 6,700 square miles.
Ukraine's far bigger and more populated. I do think Putin would win in the initial fight, able to at least push to the Dnieper river within a few weeks, but then he's got to hold the territory. Taking all of Ukraine would still come at a significant cost, with years of insurgents on a much greater scale than Chechnya. Now I think he could do it, but it would be a costly affair, in money and lives.
Taiwan's even harder to invade, even without any form of foreign support. My previous post was a wargame with American and Japanese participation, but while Taiwan is much more in our interest to defend, most have no interest in doing so, regardless of political party. China would still lose a fair amount of their planes, either to enemy aircraft, SAM systems, or just mechanical failure. An amphibious invasion would be extremely costly, given Formosa is an easily defensible island.
Most likely, we wouldn't want to get involved, but it would be a sign that the world's gotten a lot more dangerous. Would China gamble that we won't do anything or operate on the assumption we will and strike first?
I'm not sure how strong the Russian military really is. During the Cold War, a lot of their strength existed only on paper, with many of their tanks and aircraft either junk or poorly maintained. Russia lost more soldiers fighting in Chechnya than we did in Iraq and Afghanistan, over a shorter period of time. This is a tiny province of a million people, covering around 6,700 square miles.
Ukraine's far bigger and more populated. I do think Putin would win in the initial fight, able to at least push to the Dnieper river within a few weeks, but then he's got to hold the territory. Taking all of Ukraine would still come at a significant cost, with years of insurgents on a much greater scale than Chechnya. Now I think he could do it, but it would be a costly affair, in money and lives.
Taiwan's even harder to invade, even without any form of foreign support. My previous post was a wargame with American and Japanese participation, but while Taiwan is much more in our interest to defend, most have no interest in doing so, regardless of political party. China would still lose a fair amount of their planes, either to enemy aircraft, SAM systems, or just mechanical failure. An amphibious invasion would be extremely costly, given Formosa is an easily defensible island.
Most likely, we wouldn't want to get involved, but it would be a sign that the world's gotten a lot more dangerous. Would China gamble that we won't do anything or operate on the assumption we will and strike first?