Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

aedens wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:21 am

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed

Higgenbotham wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:57 pm

14 years ago, the high was on April 26 and the flash crash was 10 days later. The lower high at the 50% retrace today is compelling.

In the comments section a few weeks ago you remarked that a key moment for you was when you realized that “collapse” wasn’t going to happen to our society, but rather that we face a long and uneven “decline.” Your argument was put forth in at least one of your books “The Long Descent,” which sits on my shelf heavily notated and underlined. I’m curious though, even as I understand your argument for decline as faced by our civilization and every other historical civilization, it seems our modern society is much more fragile than historical civilizations, with our dependence on steady electrical power, just in time delivery product inventories , etc.

Would you please expand on this distinction a bit and offer an explanation as to why you don’t believe our modern fragility could be a factor in sudden collapse?

I routinely field two questions from people about decline. Yours, asking whether I’ve taken into account the fragility of modern industrial society, is one. The other, its equal and opposite, asks whether I’ve taken into account the capacities modern industrial society has to deal with crisis. My answer to both is the same: yes, I’ve taken both these into account, and they cancel each other out. Industrial society is uniquely robust in some ways and uniquely fragile in others, but it’s rising and falling in lockstep with every other civilization in recorded history.

Poorhouses Were Designed to Punish People for Their Poverty

In a time before social services, society’s most vulnerable people were hidden away in brutal institutions.
BY: ERIN BLAKEMORE
UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 14, 2023 | ORIGINAL: JANUARY 30, 2018

When Anne Sullivan came to Tewksbury, she wasn’t yet the renowned “miracle worker” who would teach Helen Keller to communicate. It was 1876, and 10-year-old Annie was a blind child living in abject poverty. Her years at the poorhouse—a facility designed to house poor people in a time before social services— were “a crime against childhood,” she later remembered.

Residents at the Massachusetts poorhouse milled about like forgotten animals. As Anne and her brother slept on the institution’s iron cots in a gigantic dormitory, rats ran up and down the spaces between beds.

In 1883, a massive investigation exposed the conditions at Tewksbury—but the institution was far from unique. Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, poorhouses were a reality for society’s most vulnerable people. These locally run institutions filled a need in a time before Social Security, Medicaid and Section 8 housing became a reality. They also exposed the stigma and shame society placed on those who were unable to support themselves.

The concept of the poorhouse originated in England during the 17th century. Municipalities were expected to care for their poor, and made a distinction between people who were old and unable to care for themselves and the able-bodied. People who were able to work were expected to do so—and could be imprisoned if they refused.

They lived in workhouses, bare bones facilities designed to make poverty seem even less attractive. In these facilities, poor people ate thrifty, unpalatable food, slept in crowded, often unsanitary conditions, and were put to work breaking stones, crushing bones, spinning cloth or doing domestic labor, among other jobs.

In the United States, the idea emigrated along with English colonists. In 1660, Boston built its first workhouse—a brick building intended for “dissolute and vagrant persons.” Massachusetts’ poor people had more than the workhouse to fear: Towns could also banish poor people or even auction them off to the lowest bidder. “Warning out” allowed towns to exile poor newcomers or make it clear they were not willing to pay to support them.

The vendue system allowed cities to auction off poor individuals to private bidders. The individual who bought the poor person then put them to work in exchange for reimbursement of what it cost to clothe and feed them. Sometimes, people had another option—asking the Overseer of the Poor, a town official, for relief. In some cases, the overseer would provide them with town-sponsored food, clothing or firewood.

By the early 19th century, the poorhouse system had won out over warning or vendue—and their construction coincided with an increasingly negative attitude toward poor people. These facilities were designed to punish people for their poverty and, hypothetically, make being poor so horrible that people would continue to work at all costs. Being poor began to carry an intense social stigma, and increasingly, poorhouses were placed outside of public view.

aedens wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:21 am

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed

Senffner is part of a cohort known as "peak boomers," or boomers born between 1959 and 1964 who will start turning 65 this year. According to a recent report from the Alliance for Lifetime Income's Retirement Income Institute, this group encompasses over 30 million boomers, marking the "largest and final cohort" of that generation entering retirement.

The report found that 52.5% of peak boomers have $250,000 or less in assets, forcing them to deplete their savings and rely on Social Security benefits to stay afloat in retirement.

According to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, just over half of Americans over 65 have incomes of $30,000 or less a year, meaning existing only on Social Security likely won't cut it.

While Senffner has years of experience in the workforce, she hasn't been able to land a full-time job despite filling out dozens of job applications. The only full-time jobs she's seen have tended to be more physically demanding, like working at a grocery store, which she's unable to do.

She said that many of her peers are struggling with the same dilemma — they either cannot find work in fields they're qualified for, or they have to work at an entry-level job with a low wage.

"The only people that are hiring older people now are places like Home Depot and Walmart," Senffner said. "I just say to my friends as a cautionary tale, if you are my age and you have a job, you better stay with it, because nobody is hiring you."

Still, with the low wages and sometimes physical demands of entry-level work, it's often not an option for those close to retirement. AARP recently released the results of a January survey that found that one in five older adults do not have any retirement savings, and over half of them don't think they'll have enough money to get them through retirement.

"Everybody my age is a little worried right now," Senffner said.

"I know so many people my age that just don't know what they're going to do," she continued. "Other countries take care of their older people, and we should be able to do it, too."

aeden wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:27 pm

As we noted H Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:24 pm
https://web.stanford.edu/~ngoodman/pape ... ys2013.pdf

Your view covers the discussion when we mapped the node structures and the eigenvalue portfolio maps also modeled.
An example was today with inputs for core producers to the consumers period as the wasting to the now grinding to dust seen.
Break evens still ended -1.20% today but we also entered materials since the tech rotation was already seen.
Tbills are locked to 5.4 percent as the headbutt basics of the EquiRiskPrem.
We covered the beta effects of the cohort study's to infer a model that more than infers they suggested AI will
suggest a path forward. Druckenmiller in error will be more correct since the decompiled bots from the warez firmware war period era

The derived issue was the beta group allowed the alpha to be filled and we know how that per se AI simulation ended.
Many of his secular response views are understood on a bio chemical level and some could contend a Zec had more cash flow and is instructive.
To the ends of it the LCL mean the Keynesians posited a 2.11 replacement was the only way for the rational to infer
modification to existing federal law. To be blunt contemptable bullshit hustlers to ignore legal fact.
The Keys to this Blood are already known and why already posted here since the 1840 to 1846 cohort drill down into the internecine
period as even General Grant had to deal with in of Order No. 11.
Grant wanted the government to purchase cotton at a pre-determined price, and then send it northward since the Treasury Department
was involved also. Any lucid actor knows what and why since the agency issues and utter corruption of inputs as we are.
Jefferson was correct on the intent and interpretation to what it is now.

Biden will implode what's not already destroyed and as put nothing to read between the lines about when it comes to this capital flight
with what they are going to implement.

Higgenbotham wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 6:33 pm

Americans aren't very good at controlling their impulses. That brings me to the next post.

Medically Reviewed
Impulse Control Disorders and Substance Abuse
Edited by:
Dan Wagener, M.A.
Reviewed by:
Scot Thomas, MD
Updated Feb 7, 2024

An impulse control disorder is a condition in which a person has trouble controlling emotions or behaviors. Often, the behaviors violate the rights of others or conflict with societal norms and the law.1

Examples of impulse control disorders include oppositional defiant disorder, conduct disorder, intermittent explosive disorder, kleptomania, and pyromania.2

According to data from the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV), about 10.5% of the general population is estimated to have an impulse control disorder.3

Males may be slightly more prone to impulse control disorders than females, and these disorders may commonly co-occur with other mental health disorders or with substance abuse.1

Impulse control disorders may be overlooked or misdiagnosed, meaning that many individuals suffering from these disorders may not get the help they need. A better understanding of the disorder can help close the treatment gap and get individuals proper care to improve symptoms. Treatment for impulse control disorders often involves behavioral therapies, and medications may also be beneficial.

Understanding Impulse Control Disorders

Impulse control disorders usually appear in childhood or adolescence.1 Some of the common types of impulse control disorders are highlighted below.

Intermittent explosive disorder: This disorder, also known as IED, is characterized by persistent impulsive and angry outbursts. The person may be violent or aggressive toward people, animals, or property. These tirades may only last about a half hour and are usually triggered by a minor issue with someone the person knows. The outbursts may result in legal or financial issues, disrupt a person’s interpersonal relationships, cause significant distress, and potentially result in problems at work or school. According to Harvard Health, around 5% to 7% of Americans will suffer from IED at some point in their lifetime.1,2,4

Oppositional defiant disorder: A person with oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) frequently loses their temper, is easily annoyed, and often becomes angry or resentful. They challenge authority figures, flout rules, bother other people on purpose, and blame other people for their problems. As a result of these behaviors, the person suffers problems at work and school, and socially. Symptoms may appear as early as preschool. The prevalence rate is estimated to be around 3.3%.1,2

Conduct disorder: Conduct disorder consists of persistent behavior that violates social rules. The person may be aggressive toward people or animals, destroy other people’s property, lie or steal, or violate rules, such as run away or skip school at an early age. The behavior causes serious problems at school or socially. People are usually not diagnosed with this disorder over the age of 18. Adults with these symptoms are diagnosed with antisocial personality disorder. The prevalence rate is estimated to be about 4%.1,2

Kleptomania: Impulsive and unnecessary stealing of things that are not needed characterizes kleptomania. Individuals may steal things and give them to other people or even throw them away. The disorder is not about the things stolen, but instead about the compulsion to steal and lack of self-control over this compulsion. Individuals may feel a sense of relief or gratification after committing the theft. Legal, family, career, and personal troubles are common for individuals with kleptomania. Between 4% to 24% percent of people who shoplift may suffer from kleptomania, and prevalence in the general population is about 0.3% to 0.6%.1

Pyromania: An individual who repeatedly and deliberately sets fires may suffer from pyromania. An attraction or obsession with fire and fire-setting paraphernalia, along with a compulsive need to set fires, and relief and pleasure after doing so characterize this disorder. Individuals do not set fires for any other reason other than their compulsion to do so to dispel their mounting tension. Pyromania is considered relatively rare, and the lifetime prevalence of people in the United States who intentionally set fires is reported to be around 3.3%.1

DT Subscriber wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:48 am

We are the West’s last generation before the new Dark Age begins

There is no future for our civilisation if universities’ totalitarian indoctrination of the young continues

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/0 ... -dark-age/

There is a fatal contradiction at the heart of Western societies, a nihilistic impulse, a pathological self-loathing that threatens to destroy our way of life. We live in the freest, wealthiest, healthiest, fairest and most technologically advanced polities in history, and yet millions of young people are being taught to hate the West, to despise the liberties that make their lifestyles possible, to tear down every institution and tradition.

DT Subscriber wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:48 am

There is now a striking correlation between levels of education and holding stupid, destructive ideas, between being highly credentialled and falling for every fashionable conspiracy theory, every tribalistic affliction, every online fad.

This madness has culminated in the explosion of anti-Semitic hatred on campuses across America, in scenes that should not be acceptable in any civilised country. They include the harassment of Jewish students, blockades, threats of violence and pro-Hamas and pro-Iran sloganeering by activists camped out in tents.

These protests are even more toxic than those of 1968: today’s woke ideology is totalitarian, racist, anti-Semitic, anti-family, anti-capitalist and collectivist. It rejects as illegitimate not just conservatism but also Left-liberalism and democracy. It promotes anti-white hatred and Israelophobia. Its supporters loathe the West and automatically back our enemies. They demonise successful minorities as “white adjacent”.

Shai Davidai, a Jewish academic at Columbia, the worst affected institution, compares the protests to 1938 Germany; a rabbi advised Jewish students to go home and the university has cancelled all in-person lectures. The calls for Minouche Shafik, Columbia’s president, to quit are growing, in my opinion she has been far too soft on the protesters and has failed to do enough to protect Jewish students, many of whom are starting to believe they no longer have a future in the West.

Stanford scientist, after decades of study, concludes: We don't have free will

Story by Corinne Purtill

After studying humans and other primates for 40 years, Stanford neurobiologist Robert Sapolsky has concluded that many factors beyond our control influence our choices and behaviors, leaving free will to be negligible in any context.

© Provided by LA Times

Before epilepsy was understood to be a neurological condition, people believed it was caused by the moon, or by phlegm in the brain. They condemned seizures as evidence of witchcraft or demonic possession, and killed or castrated sufferers to prevent them from passing tainted blood to a new generation.

Today we know epilepsy is a disease. By and large, it’s accepted that a person who causes a fatal traffic accident while in the grip of a seizure should not be charged with murder.

That’s good, says Stanford University neurobiologist Robert Sapolsky. That’s progress. But there's still a long way to go.

After more than 40 years studying humans and other primates, Sapolsky has reached the conclusion that virtually all human behavior is as far beyond our conscious control as the convulsions of a seizure, the division of cells or the beating of our hearts.

This means accepting that a man who shoots into a crowd has no more control over his fate than the victims who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. It means treating drunk drivers who barrel into pedestrians just like drivers who suffer a sudden heart attack and veer out of their lane.

Sapolsky was raised in an Orthodox Jewish household in Brooklyn, the son of immigrants from the former Soviet Union.