by Reality Check » Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:42 am
Trevor wrote:It looks like Assad's hoping to try and redirect the conflict, either to Turkey or Israel. Btw, did a little more research on the Syrian Uprising and you're right, it's not a crisis war.
Starting a war with Turkey would be suicide for the Assad regime. It would justify NATO and Turkey intervening in what is at most a Syrian civil war at this point.
It would also be a big blow to Russia's economy if they supported Syria in such a war. Turkey is one of Russia's major trading partners these days.
Syria is not run by risk takers according to my understanding of Generational Theory.
On the other hand Turkey might start such a war based on Generational Theory because they might ignore the economic risk of loss of trade with Russia, and the risk of a possible conflict with Russia, and instead take a risky move seeking to become a super power among Sunni Arab, and Sunni non-Arab, nations, and seeking to lead those nations on the world stage.
[quote="Trevor"]It looks like Assad's hoping to try and redirect the conflict, either to Turkey or Israel. Btw, did a little more research on the Syrian Uprising and you're right, it's not a crisis war.
[/quote]
Starting a war with Turkey would be suicide for the Assad regime. It would justify NATO and Turkey intervening in what is at most a Syrian civil war at this point.
It would also be a big blow to Russia's economy if they supported Syria in such a war. Turkey is one of Russia's major trading partners these days.
Syria is not run by risk takers according to my understanding of Generational Theory.
On the other hand Turkey might start such a war based on Generational Theory because they might ignore the economic risk of loss of trade with Russia, and the risk of a possible conflict with Russia, and instead take a risky move seeking to become a super power among Sunni Arab, and Sunni non-Arab, nations, and seeking to lead those nations on the world stage.