29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

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Expand view Topic review: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by The Grey Badger » Sat May 01, 2010 11:05 am

JLak wrote:
thomasglee wrote: I'm not an economist, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn before and I know right now, whether it's inflation or deflation, we're headed for a world of hurt. Just trying to figure out what to do... buy gold, hoard cash, sell land, keep land, throw my hands up in the air, move overseas or all of the above.... :-)
John says you can't really do anything about it except general preparedness. I tend to agree because the political process will determine what sort of disaster happens. I do think it's possible to determine what is going to happen in politics by simply figuring out what is going to give the most money to the people with the most power at the moment, but that's not easy.

Unless you have huge amounts of money to play with, I certainly don't have any answers. You can either spend your life watching and preparing, or just be happy marching along to slaughter. If you plan on getting laid, however, I suggest the lemming approach to life. Seriously, are there any women on this forum? Hello? Anybody? Yeah, that's what I thought; the survivors colony is going to be a swordfight of epic proportions. Darwinian fail.
Are there any women on this forum? Well, "ain't I a woman?"

The Grey Badger. Mother of two cubs and 4.5 grandcubs.

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by thomasglee » Fri Apr 30, 2010 9:44 am

JLak wrote:John says you can't really do anything about it except general preparedness. I tend to agree because the political process will determine what sort of disaster happens. I do think it's possible to determine what is going to happen in politics by simply figuring out what is going to give the most money to the people with the most power at the moment, but that's not easy.
It sure isn't easy. I used to think (and was debating this with a friend last night) that all we had to do was figure out what was going to make the rich get richer and follow that plan. However, I have come to realize 1) what makes the rich get richer is virtually impossible to do any more unless you have HUGE sums of cash. 2) I realize that they don't know what they're doing. I guess it is generational, but I truly wonder if they really understand what they're doing or if they've become delusional. My friend thinks everything is the plan of a cabal working to take over the world and I think it's just a bunch of narcissistic, ego-maniacal, immature frat boys and girls playing in an area they really don't know as much about as they thought they did. They know just enough to cause trouble, but not enough to actually run the world, much less a banking system.
JLak wrote:Unless you have huge amounts of money to play with, I certainly don't have any answers. You can either spend your life watching and preparing, or just be happy marching along to slaughter.
No huge sums of cash here, but a fairly steady cash-flow generating (even in these bad times) business that I continue to maintain knowing it will likely be my lifeline during the downturn to come. I work in the defense industry as an independent contractor (for nearly 20 years now) and in bad economies, business actually tends to increase. It's just hard to build up a large surplus of cash these days, no matter what you do.

I'm preparing a little at a time, but mostly putting my faith in God, myself and the knowledge that no matter what I try right now, I'll probably just end up marching happily along to the slaughter.
JLak wrote:If you plan on getting laid, however, I suggest the lemming approach to life. Seriously, are there any women on this forum? Hello? Anybody? Yeah, that's what I thought; the survivors colony is going to be a swordfight of epic proportions. Darwinian fail.
Been married for 21 plus years now... I gave up on getting laid a long time ago! :-P

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by John » Fri Apr 30, 2010 9:10 am

JLak wrote:If you plan on getting laid, however, I suggest the lemming approach to life.
Amen.

John

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by JLak » Fri Apr 30, 2010 1:06 am

thomasglee wrote: I'm not an economist, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn before and I know right now, whether it's inflation or deflation, we're headed for a world of hurt. Just trying to figure out what to do... buy gold, hoard cash, sell land, keep land, throw my hands up in the air, move overseas or all of the above.... :-)
John says you can't really do anything about it except general preparedness. I tend to agree because the political process will determine what sort of disaster happens. I do think it's possible to determine what is going to happen in politics by simply figuring out what is going to give the most money to the people with the most power at the moment, but that's not easy.

Unless you have huge amounts of money to play with, I certainly don't have any answers. You can either spend your life watching and preparing, or just be happy marching along to slaughter. If you plan on getting laid, however, I suggest the lemming approach to life. Seriously, are there any women on this forum? Hello? Anybody? Yeah, that's what I thought; the survivors colony is going to be a swordfight of epic proportions. Darwinian fail.

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by thomasglee » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:08 am

JLak wrote:This is something of a running gag on GenerationalDynamics.
John wrote: Krugman won the Nobel Prize last year because he had the major qualification that the Nobel committee was looking for: He hated George Bush.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... gd.e100125
My apologies. I was thinking, "oh lord, here we go again..."

I'm not an economist, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn before and I know right now, whether it's inflation or deflation, we're headed for a world of hurt. Just trying to figure out what to do... buy gold, hoard cash, sell land, keep land, throw my hands up in the air, move overseas or all of the above.... :-)

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by JLak » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:02 am

thomasglee wrote:
Guest wrote:In conclusion: Bush sucks. Can I have my Nobel prize in economics now?
Not a fan of Bush myself, but that ending made the rest of what you wrote meaningless as your digression into juvenility makes me doubt the sincerity of anything else you've proffered.
This is something of a running gag on GenerationalDynamics.
John wrote: Krugman won the Nobel Prize last year because he had the major qualification that the Nobel committee was looking for: He hated George Bush.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... gd.e100125

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by thomasglee » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:52 pm

Guest wrote:In conclusion: Bush sucks. Can I have my Nobel prize in economics now?
Not a fan of Bush myself, but that ending made the rest of what you wrote meaningless as your digression into juvenility makes me doubt the sincerity of anything else you've proffered.

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by Guest » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:15 pm

thomasglee wrote:
JLak wrote:What do you mean by currency collapse? I contend that the PIIGS will fail, and the Euro will deflate significantly. The more member nations that fail, the stronger it gets. How can it be any other way? Nothing will be able to replace it. Once the major banks realize this, the US dollar and treasuries will suffer dramatically. The subtle difference between the two systems is about to become very clear. The only thing that holds up the USD strength facade is the Saudi oil window, just as it used to be the Bretton Woods gold window.
What is going to make the Euro stronger when the PIIGS that are collapsing are using the Euro? Are you suggesting (and possibly rightly so; I don't know and that's why I'm asking) that the PIIGS will drop out of the Euro and therefore the Euro will become more valuable?
No. These debts secure huge amounts of credit. When they are wiped out, the whole system will freeze up in a classic credit deflation. This will be like the mortgage collapse in the US except that the ECB doesn't have the same tools as the fed, so it will really hit them hard. There is a possibility of USD adoption (Chilean-style reform and currency pegs), but any new single-state fiat has a snowball's chance in hell against the Euro. I'm, of course, hoping for USD adoption, but I think in the long run we will end up with an independent multilateral fiat like the Euro, with the commodity backing of the USD.

I'd like to take this opportunity to posit a thesis on the value of a fiat currency. The dialectic between supply and demand is what determines the value. Supply is mostly affected by credit, and demand is mostly affected by confidence in the central bank. Economists are classically trained to look only on the supply side, which gives us the current Keynsian policy. Citizens, however, are mostly concerned with the demand side, which gives us the Tea Party and endless gold commercials. The Fed is designed to control the supply side. The ECB is designed to control the demand side. Therefore, the same crisis will affect the US and Europe differently. In conclusion: Bush sucks. Can I have my Nobel prize in economics now?

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by thomasglee » Thu Apr 29, 2010 9:42 pm

JLak wrote:What do you mean by currency collapse? I contend that the PIIGS will fail, and the Euro will deflate significantly. The more member nations that fail, the stronger it gets. How can it be any other way? Nothing will be able to replace it. Once the major banks realize this, the US dollar and treasuries will suffer dramatically. The subtle difference between the two systems is about to become very clear. The only thing that holds up the USD strength facade is the Saudi oil window, just as it used to be the Bretton Woods gold window.
What is going to make the Euro stronger when the PIIGS that are collapsing are using the Euro? Are you suggesting (and possibly rightly so; I don't know and that's why I'm asking) that the PIIGS will drop out of the Euro and therefore the Euro will become more valuable?

Re: 29-Apr-10 News-Desperate Europeans try to save euro

by JLak » Thu Apr 29, 2010 9:23 pm

What do you mean by currency collapse? I contend that the PIIGS will fail, and the Euro will deflate significantly. The more member nations that fail, the stronger it gets. How can it be any other way? Nothing will be able to replace it. Once the major banks realize this, the US dollar and treasuries will suffer dramatically. The subtle difference between the two systems is about to become very clear. The only thing that holds up the USD strength facade is the Saudi oil window, just as it used to be the Bretton Woods gold window.

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