by Trevor » Fri May 25, 2018 8:36 am
Reading all of this reminds me of a war game that we played in 2002, called the millennium challenge. The "Red" Team was never specified, but considering what was going on at the time, all signs point to Iran.
Using low-tech methods, General Van Piper on the Red Team managed to sink an aircraft carrier, a dozen other naval ships, and five amphibious vessel. Had this been real, around 20,000 American personnel would have been killed. This was accomplished by a massive barrage of cruise missiles, small attack craft and suicide boats. Afterwards, his superiors interfered with the war game, setting things up so that there was no way he could succeed and the American victory was certain.
I can't help but point out that these were based on Iranian capabilities, a regional power. China's capabilities are a lot greater and in a surprise attack, I wouldn't doubt that they could inflict even more damage on an unsuspecting U.S. Navy. At the time, many wanted to sweep it under the rug, not wanting to believe that the U.S. could actually lose a major battle in that fashion.
A previous example was Admiral Harry Yarnell, who, during a war game in 1932, had proved how vulnerable ships were to aerial attack, which most of his peers at the time disbelieved. When Japan did attack, they used the same approaches he did during the war game in question. They didn't believe the Japanese could pull something like that off, just as we don't take China's capabilities seriously.
I understand how difficult the future is to predict and we see new designs come and go, many not living up to their fears. What would be pleasant to see is at least not being complacent and secure in our capabilities.
Reading all of this reminds me of a war game that we played in 2002, called the millennium challenge. The "Red" Team was never specified, but considering what was going on at the time, all signs point to Iran.
Using low-tech methods, General Van Piper on the Red Team managed to sink an aircraft carrier, a dozen other naval ships, and five amphibious vessel. Had this been real, around 20,000 American personnel would have been killed. This was accomplished by a massive barrage of cruise missiles, small attack craft and suicide boats. Afterwards, his superiors interfered with the war game, setting things up so that there was no way he could succeed and the American victory was certain.
I can't help but point out that these were based on Iranian capabilities, a regional power. China's capabilities are a lot greater and in a surprise attack, I wouldn't doubt that they could inflict even more damage on an unsuspecting U.S. Navy. At the time, many wanted to sweep it under the rug, not wanting to believe that the U.S. could actually lose a major battle in that fashion.
A previous example was Admiral Harry Yarnell, who, during a war game in 1932, had proved how vulnerable ships were to aerial attack, which most of his peers at the time disbelieved. When Japan did attack, they used the same approaches he did during the war game in question. They didn't believe the Japanese could pull something like that off, just as we don't take China's capabilities seriously.
I understand how difficult the future is to predict and we see new designs come and go, many not living up to their fears. What would be pleasant to see is at least not being complacent and secure in our capabilities.