by Reality Check » Mon May 28, 2012 7:23 pm
This post is just one ( speculative ) scenario for defeating a Chinese ballistic anti-ship missile when fired at a U.S. carrier.
The United States has been moving forward with implementation of a nuclear missile shield for Europe to protect it against Medium Range, and Intermediate Range, Nuclear tipped Ballistic missiles fired by Iran from somewhere in Iran, or from Iranian ships, or from territory held by Iran's allies in Lebanon, Israel ( Gaza ), Iraq or Syria.
This missile shield was President Obama's decision after he rejected the shield being built by President George W. Bush, and President Obama replaced it with one based on the more limited and older capabilities of U.S. Navy Ships to perform nuclear missile defense.
Protecting Europe with this ABM system is challenging because the geographic area from which Iran can fire missiles is expansive and Europe provides thousands of potential targets spread over an even larger geographic area.
The ABM system must locate the launch point, wait and watch the nuclear missile climb to calculate the course and then launch an interceptor toward space at the correct point to intercept the missile to be destroyed. The ABM launcher could be a long way from the perfect point on earth to launch the interceptor from. The farther it is away from the perfect point, the longer it takes the interceptor missile to reach the nuclear missile's path.
Conventional wisdom ( and most talking head experts ) say the Chinese anti-ship missile can not be shot down ABM style because it has an extremely short maximum range for a ballistic missile. The shorter the maximum range the faster it will reach it's target, all other things being equal.
If the Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile does indeed have a maximum range of 933 miles, that would make it just a little longer ranged than the 620 mile range of a short range ballistic missile ( SRBM ) and much less than the maximum range of a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) at 2,200 miles.
All MRBM ballistic missiles spend a substantial portion of their flight time in outer space.
With most ABM systems the most reliable places to shoot down an incoming missile is in it's boost phase, or in space after the boost phase while the missile is still ascending, or when the missile is near the top of it's arc moving at it's slowest.
With most ABM systems they must wait and watch the trajectory of a just launched missile for a while to determine where it is headed before they can calculate the mid-way point and launch an interceptor.
The U.S. Navy may look at these same facts and say the Chinese anti-ship missile is much easier to shoot down.
First a U.S. ABM capable ship ( a cruiser or destroyer ) assigned to protect the carrier will know the exact heading and location of the carrier at all times, and the ABM ship will know the path of an anti-ship missile aimed at the carrier as soon as the anti-ship missile is launched, it will be from the launch point to the carrier. So it can launch the interceptor immediately. The key point is the assumption at launch the Chinese missile is attacking the carrier so there is no need to see where it is headed, the interceptor is launched immediately so that, if it is headed for the carrier, it will be intercepted. The carrier is still safe if the missile was headed somewhere else. Either way, mission accomplished from the ABM ship's point of view.
Second, U.S. ABM capable ships will know all the possible angles Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles might approach from so they can distribute themselves between those angles and between the carrier and China so that one, or more of the ABM ships, is in, or near all the perfect places to launch ABM interceptors from.
Finally, the ABM ships, which will be substantially closer to China than the carrier, could be covered by long range 4 engine and 8 engine bombers carrying long range anti-ship missiles and covered as well by land based fighters ( supported by refueling tankers ). U.S. attack submarines with anti-submarine destroyers, anti-submarine frigates and anti-sub planes could provide protection from Chinese submarine attack.
Just speculation - the assumptions it is based on may be wrong.
This post is just one ( speculative ) scenario for defeating a Chinese ballistic anti-ship missile when fired at a U.S. carrier.
The United States has been moving forward with implementation of a nuclear missile shield for Europe to protect it against Medium Range, and Intermediate Range, Nuclear tipped Ballistic missiles fired by Iran from somewhere in Iran, or from Iranian ships, or from territory held by Iran's allies in Lebanon, Israel ( Gaza ), Iraq or Syria.
This missile shield was President Obama's decision after he rejected the shield being built by President George W. Bush, and President Obama replaced it with one based on the more limited and older capabilities of U.S. Navy Ships to perform nuclear missile defense.
Protecting Europe with this ABM system is challenging because the geographic area from which Iran can fire missiles is expansive and Europe provides thousands of potential targets spread over an even larger geographic area.
The ABM system must locate the launch point, wait and watch the nuclear missile climb to calculate the course and then launch an interceptor toward space at the correct point to intercept the missile to be destroyed. The ABM launcher could be a long way from the perfect point on earth to launch the interceptor from. The farther it is away from the perfect point, the longer it takes the interceptor missile to reach the nuclear missile's path.
Conventional wisdom ( and most talking head experts ) say the Chinese anti-ship missile can not be shot down ABM style because it has an extremely short maximum range for a ballistic missile. The shorter the maximum range the faster it will reach it's target, all other things being equal.
If the Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile does indeed have a maximum range of 933 miles, that would make it just a little longer ranged than the 620 mile range of a short range ballistic missile ( SRBM ) and much less than the maximum range of a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) at 2,200 miles.
All MRBM ballistic missiles spend a substantial portion of their flight time in outer space.
With most ABM systems the most reliable places to shoot down an incoming missile is in it's boost phase, or in space after the boost phase while the missile is still ascending, or when the missile is near the top of it's arc moving at it's slowest.
With most ABM systems they must wait and watch the trajectory of a just launched missile for a while to determine where it is headed before they can calculate the mid-way point and launch an interceptor.
The U.S. Navy may look at these same facts and say the Chinese anti-ship missile is much easier to shoot down.
First a U.S. ABM capable ship ( a cruiser or destroyer ) assigned to protect the carrier will know the exact heading and location of the carrier at all times, and the ABM ship will know the path of an anti-ship missile aimed at the carrier as soon as the anti-ship missile is launched, it will be from the launch point to the carrier. So it can launch the interceptor immediately. The key point is the assumption at launch the Chinese missile is attacking the carrier so there is no need to see where it is headed, the interceptor is launched immediately so that, if it is headed for the carrier, it will be intercepted. The carrier is still safe if the missile was headed somewhere else. Either way, mission accomplished from the ABM ship's point of view.
Second, U.S. ABM capable ships will know all the possible angles Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles might approach from so they can distribute themselves between those angles and between the carrier and China so that one, or more of the ABM ships, is in, or near all the perfect places to launch ABM interceptors from.
Finally, the ABM ships, which will be substantially closer to China than the carrier, could be covered by long range 4 engine and 8 engine bombers carrying long range anti-ship missiles and covered as well by land based fighters ( supported by refueling tankers ). U.S. attack submarines with anti-submarine destroyers, anti-submarine frigates and anti-sub planes could provide protection from Chinese submarine attack.
Just speculation - the assumptions it is based on may be wrong.