Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Fri May 17, 2019 9:01 pm

Dr Boogie wrote:

Kuwait moving to total war footing.....

Just more alarmist claptrap. How is it possible that Kuwait, considering it's physical location, wealth and supposed "highly educated" elite ruling class, would only NOW develop and publicize an "emergency plan" for dealing with war in their freakin' front driveway?

We will see, of course, but why would the US and Israel disable the military capabilities of their future ally (Iran)?

Any "engagement" with Iran will be "surgical", and will be performed by Israel, and may be noticeable by Iran's neighbors, but most likely will get noticed by them (the neighbors) due to CNN.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Tom Mazanec » Sat May 18, 2019 10:56 am

The real meaning of Trump's trade war: ... e_war.html

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sat May 18, 2019 8:03 pm

** 18-May-2019 World View: Australia's climate change activists suffer a surprise election rout

Apparently nobody saw this coming. The Labor Party, headed by Bill
Shorten, was expected by everyone to win the majority of seats in
Saturday's nationwide elections in Australia, but instead, the winner
was the conservative Liberal-National Coalition, led by Scott
Morrison, according to exit polls.

This is being compared to the unexpected win by Donald Trump in the
2016 election, where many polls turned out to be wrong.

According to analysts, there were two major issues that led to the
shock result. One was that the Labor party was promising to
raise taxes and spend a lot more on social programs.

But the major issue that led to the Liberal-National Coalition
victory, according to analysts, was that the Labor Party was
promising to implement the same sort of loony tunes climate
change agenda that we're always hearing about in the United
States and Europe.

In Australia's case, the biggest loss to Labor were a number
of seats in Queensland, which has a lot of coal mines. Normally,
coal miners vote overwhelming for Labor, but in this case,
they believed that Labor's climate change activist agenda
would cost them their jobs, so they switched sides.

The greatest shock of this election is that everyone got it wrong
because the polls got it so wrong. And for those people interested
in participating in forecasting contests, this is a good example from
Chaos Theory that shows why neither polls nor Generational Dynamics
can predict election results.

--- Sources:

-- Australian election: Queensland drives a stake through Labor's
hopes ... abor-hopes
(Guardian, London, 18-May-2019)

-- Adani / One word that sums up Labor’s election disaster in
Queensland ... 038f66b2ca
(, Australia)

-- 2019 Australia election: Morrison celebrates 'miracle' win

-- How Australia’s Election Could Save the World (But Won’t) ... story.html
(Bloomberg, 17-May-2019)


Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sat May 18, 2019 8:33 pm

If war breaks out with Iran and China at the same time will the global economy collapse?

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sat May 18, 2019 8:36 pm

Guest wrote:If war breaks out with Iran and China at the same time will the global economy collapse?

Not gonna happen.

Dr Boogie

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Dr Boogie » Sat May 18, 2019 9:25 pm

More useless claptrap perhaps?


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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Sun May 19, 2019 3:22 am

Dr Boogie wrote:More useless claptrap perhaps?


No. The Iranians (of the OLD Guard) DO in fact really hate our chlorine!

..the "potentially killing thousands" thing is just a "happy coincidence" from the (old guard) Iranian's point of view.

We MUST learn to protect our chlorine more scrupulously!


Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sun May 19, 2019 7:16 am

If WW3 breaks out, Western countries will be able to recruit hordes of transgenders, illegal immigrants, homosexuals, and drug addicts into their highly disciplined armies. No worries, mates. The West will triumph. We have the wind at our backs.

Oh, wait.

Start learning Mandarin.

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun May 19, 2019 10:45 pm

** 19-May-2019 World View: China's Foreign Investment Law imposes draconian controls

When China passed its new Foreign Investment Law in March, I didn't
pay much attention since the media described it as "a move widely seen
as an effort to facilitate US trade talks." According to the news
stories at the time, the new law would make it easier for foreign
owned companies to do business in China by making them equivalent to
Chinese companies.

However, a subsequent analysis of this law shows that it has the
opposite effect. By making foreign owned businesses equivalent to
Chinese companies, it means that foreign owned businesss are exposed
to the full force of the CCP-military control.

According to an analysis in the China Law blog:

We wrote how we were not at all impressed with China’s
new Foreign Investment Law . Since then, a number of commentators
(who near as I can tell cannot read Chinese) have hailed the law
as a positive development for foreign companies doing business
with China and in China. The impression these commentators are
giving is that China’s new Foreign Investment Law (FIL) will raise
up foreign companies to become equal to Chinese companies.

This is just not correct. The intent of the new law is actually
the opposite and for people like me who have been doing business
with China for decades even the idea that it would be otherwise is
at least somewhat laughable. The intent and the reality of the FIL
is to pull down foreign investors to the status of privately owned
Chinese companies. At that level, foreign invested companies will
be firmly under CCP control and they will operate at a permanent
economic disadvantage to PRC state owned enterprises. In other
words, foreign invested companies in China will be crushed by the
PRC state in the same way nearly all private Chinese companies are
crushed by the state.


Foreign invested companies will now receive no incentives or
benefits at all. They will be treated the same as any private
Chinese company. They will pay tax at an effective rate of
60%. When they remit after tax profits to their shareholders, they
will pay an additional withholding tax of 15%. They will be
subject to the 17% VAT rate. They will pay the some of the world’s
highest rates for land and office rent. Perhaps most importantly,
they will be entirely under the control of the CCP and the Chinese
government. No “special status” will shield them. Among other
things, this will mean the following:

  • When the CCP arrives to set up a party branch in the foreign
    enterprise, compliance by the foreign enterprise will be required.
    When the CCP branch insists on reviewing confidential company
    business records, compliance will be required.

  • When the workers in even a five person office state that they
    will form a union controlled by the local CCP/government,
    compliance by the foreign company will be required.

  • When the local telecom/ISP service states that it will set up
    the foreign company’s Internet and email server, compliance will
    be required. When the foreign company is told it can no longer use
    its international VPN to get access to necessary news and
    information, compliance will be required.

  • When the company is told that all of its company data must be
    stored on a cloud server located in China accessible to the
    Chinese government, compliance will be required.

  • When the Chinese government/military arrives at the door and
    tells the foreign company that the PRC Cybersecurity Law mandates
    that it turn over its source code and other confidential
    information, compliance will be required.

This law was passed as the US-China trade talks were being negotiated,
and we now know that the Chinese were making agreements that they had
no intention of committing to. As we've been reporting, the Chinese
reneged on all the agreements just before the final agreement was to
be signed, apparently expecting that political pressures in the US
would force Trump to accept the changes. This follows a decades-old
pattern by the Chinese (and North Koreans) of making agreements and
then ignoring their obligations, while demanding that others
scrupulously meet their commitments, as a standard pattern. Passing
the new Foreign Investment Law is part of the strategy of subterfuge
this time.

The fact that Trump is standing up to the Chinese, and that Trump is
receiving a lot of support from the international community and from
Democrats, is apparently quite a shock to the CCP, since it
means that the CCP's entire negotiating strategy has collapsed.

A G-20 meeting is scheduled for Osaka on June 28-29, and Trump
and Xi Jinping are supposed to meet at that time. Unless some
surprise breakthrough occurs in the US-China trade talks,
that meeting probably will not be held.

On Saturday, China's foreign minister Wang Yi spoke to US secretary of
state Mike Pompeo on the phone. The purpose of the phone call was to
put further political pressure on the US to back down in the trade
talks. The media is reported Wang's statements as a "veiled threat."

China's readout of the call is on the Foreign Ministry web site. The
following is a machine translation:

Wang Yi phone call with Mike Pompeo (translation)

"On May 18, 2019, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yiying
made a phone call with US Secretary of State Pompeo.

Wang Yi said that the US has taken words and deeds that harm
China's interests in various aspects in recent times, including
suppressing the normal operation of Chinese enterprises through
political means. The Chinese side is firmly opposed to this. We
urge the US side not to go too far. We should change our course as
soon as possible to avoid further damage to Sino-US
relations. History and reality show that China and the United
States are two big countries. If they are both good and bad,
cooperation is the only correct choice for both sides. The two
sides should, in accordance with the direction set by the two
heads of state, manage differences on the basis of mutual respect,
expand cooperation on the basis of mutual benefit, and jointly
promote Sino-US relations based on coordination, cooperation and

Wang Yi pointed out that China has always advocated and is willing
to resolve economic and trade differences through negotiations and
negotiations, but the negotiations should be equal. In any
negotiation, China must safeguard the legitimate interests of the
country, respond to the general voice of the people, and defend
the basic norms of international relations.

Wang Yi emphasized that China has shown its position of resolute
opposition to the recent negative behaviors of the US-related
Taiwan. We urge the US to abide by the one-China principle and the
three Sino-US joint communiques and carefully handle the
Taiwan-related issues.

The two sides also exchanged views on relevant international and
regional issues. Pompeo reported on the US's views on the latest
developments in the Iranian situation. Wang Yi emphasized that
China, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, is
committed to denuclearization and peace and stability in the
Middle East. We hope that all parties will exercise restraint and
act with caution and avoid escalating tensions. Wang Yi reiterated
his principled stand against the "long arm jurisdiction" of the
United States."

The call came several days after Trump signed an executive order
that could block Huawei doing business with American companies.

Both China and the US are becoming more belligerent in tit-for-tat
escalations. China has absolutely no intention of agreeing to a fair
US-China trade deal, and the terms of the Foreign Investment law show
what that means. China will not pull back, because it's bent on a war
of revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan, and
Trump is not going to pull back because doing so would be appeasement,
and would do no good anyway.

----- Sources:

-- China foreign investment law: Bill aims to ease global concerns
(BBC, 15-Mar-2019)

-- New China Foreign Investment Law: Not Good News ... -news.html
(China Law Blog, 23-Apr-2019)

-- China’s Wang Tells Pompeo U.S. Must Negotiate on Equal Basis ... e-by-phone
(Bloomberg, 18-May-2015)

-- Wang Yi phone call with Mike Pompeo (translation)
(China's Foreign Ministry, translation in article, 18-May-2019)

Guest in Korea

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest in Korea » Mon May 20, 2019 12:31 am

Will peace hold until July? My flight leaves in mid month. Should I leave earlier? The situation seems to deteriorating faster then I anticipated.

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