10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China threat

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John
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby John » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:02 pm

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:> The Chinese are almost there now. Not quite, but really really
> close. The real signal that the oil is on the floor, ready to be
> slipped on, is when some Chinese behavior causes the fractious
> parties in the west to choose between "them or us" instead of
> fighting amongst themselves about pronouns and Patreon.
> ...
> So, I'm quite content, personally, to appreciate the amusing and
> comforting internal bickering of the identity based political
> groups within our various societies, as their little "wars" mean
> "the world ain't ripe yet".


The Chinese are definitely "there" now. One thing that's clear from
studying Chinese history is that they don't really want war with the
US -- after all, we saved their butt in WW II, and several times
before that, including in the aftermath of WW I -- but they really
want war vs Japan. But of course they know that war with Japan means
war with the US.

The equivalent of the Marco Polo Bridge incident, which launched WW II
in Asia, could happen at any time. China is being extremely
belligerent in the East China Sea around the Senkaku Islands, and that
could easily trigger a war on any day. The same could be said about
the Taiwan Strait. The world is definitely ripe.

Americans were just as politically divided in the late 1930s as they
are today, even after the war in Europe had started. What united
Americans behind FDR were the "regeneracy events" -- Pearl Harbor and
the Bataan Death March.

CH86
Posts: 302
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby CH86 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:35 pm

John wrote:
FishbellykanakaDude wrote:> The Chinese are almost there now. Not quite, but really really
> close. The real signal that the oil is on the floor, ready to be
> slipped on, is when some Chinese behavior causes the fractious
> parties in the west to choose between "them or us" instead of
> fighting amongst themselves about pronouns and Patreon.
> ...
> So, I'm quite content, personally, to appreciate the amusing and
> comforting internal bickering of the identity based political
> groups within our various societies, as their little "wars" mean
> "the world ain't ripe yet".


The Chinese are definitely "there" now. One thing that's clear from
studying Chinese history is that they don't really want war with the
US -- after all, we saved their butt in WW II, and several times
before that, including in the aftermath of WW I -- but they really
want war vs Japan. But of course they know that war with Japan means
war with the US.

The equivalent of the Marco Polo Bridge incident, which launched WW II
in Asia, could happen at any time. China is being extremely
belligerent in the East China Sea around the Senkaku Islands, and that
could easily trigger a war on any day. The same could be said about
the Taiwan Strait. The world is definitely ripe.

Americans were just as politically divided in the late 1930s as they
are today, even after the war in Europe had started. What united
Americans behind FDR were the "regeneracy events" -- Pearl Harbor and
the Bataan Death March.


You site senkaku or taiwan causing a war, when those areas are much more regulated than the flashpoints that would actually cause a war involving china, which you didn't even mention. Notably Doklam and the Sino-Vietnamese border. But Doklam flaring up would cause a war between China and India, that would likely involve Pakistan and eventually Russia, but not the US since we have no tangible interests there. Senkakus in fact have quieted down significantly in recent years with China and Japan signing a semi-long term trade pact last year due to Trump's trade war. Tsai is unlikely to declare independence because her party lost the legislative elections in Taiwan last year precisely over that issue thus she does not currently have the support necessary to do so. Then there is still the threat of Putin's Russia in addition to China.

When the crisis war takes place it is still up in air that China and Not Russia would be the main adversary, Moreover the Chinese still have not fully "nativized" military production so that their military uses entirely Chinese made equipment, Also Russia and Iran are still under anti-western regimes and command powerful war machines as well. Even IF the war is one in which China is the primary enemy it is increasingly unlikely that the west would be lead through the war by the people you guys want to be leading the western nations because those groups are clearly unpopular with the citizenry of the west. Their demonstrated incompetence in the last several non-crisis wars, most notably the failure by the elite due to incompetence and deliberately inept decisions, to maintain support as in the war on terror even though that war started with terrorist mass casualty attacks on civilian targets no less, the level of incompetence needed to fritter away popular support for war against the perpetrators is simply stunning. This has resulting in the US government and other western governments taking a major legitimacy hit, this well as the fact that the globalists already lead the west in the last Crisis war (WW2), given the fact that it is rare for the same elite to lead two crisis wars in a row, as there is usually an elite turnover prior to the start of the new crisis war.

Regarding a possible liberalization of Russia and Iran, such is unlikely since the Russian and Iranian equivalents of Neoliberals/globalists are decidedly unpopular in those two countries, Contrary to the wishes and wants of Globalist Ideologues like yourself, the Russians do not want Kasparov in the Kremlin, Nor do the Mass of the Iranians want the Shah back. A regime Change that brings in governments find democratic commonality with the west, and that would ally with the west against China in principle and action, is therefore unlikely.

The Wilsonian/Macarthurite/Macarthyite/NeoLiberal/Neocon/Liberal-Democracy/Globalist conglomerate is unlikely to be the "4T order defining group" during this 4Ts crisis war because that coalition is not and would not be a "new societal order" nor would that even represent the victory of the "awakening Ideals" either. This is because the Wilsonian/Macarthurite/Macarthyite/NeoLiberal/Neocon/Liberal-Democracy/Globalist already existed in the post-war years at the end of the 1940s/early 1950s, it predates the boomer awakening, such therefore would not be a "new order" that is the "old order". Even making the case that such would be the culmination of the boomer awakening ideals fails to hold water since the Boomer Awakening started off as a clear rebellion AGAINST the Wilsonian/Macarthurite/Macarthyite/NeoLiberal/Neocon/Liberal-Democracy/Globalist order.

On a separate but related note: it is Ironic that you mention last saeculum's democratic China, and the Marco polo bridge incident which started the main 4T war Proper for them. Lets talk about Pre-WW2 China, WW2 China and the generational development of Post-WW2 China Globalists and anti-activist/Pro-globalist/establishment Boomers take note. The Chinese "nationalists" were able to maintain and get their neoliberal China by Japan's surrender in 1945. But remember what happened to them afterwards, the Chinese People didn't like being press-ganged into fighting for western Liberalism, they supported the KMT in the 1920s because they wanted the foreign concessions and missionaries GONE. But they did not like the KMT government taking the Chinese people into war standard-bearing liberal principles without the consent of the citizenry: As a result, Once the war was over the Chinese people rose up against the KMT and forcibly put a government along the lines of what they had always wanted by 1949/1950. The globalists/equivalents were kicked out the country post-ww2. The Nomads when later on 20 to 40 years later were confronted by a new prophet generation eventually crushed the 2T precisely because the Chinese civic generation and surviving Nomads decided one way or another their next crisis would not be because of weakness of a weak globalist government like the previous WW2 crisis ended up being due to a tyrannical prophet generation. As a result they took the decision in 1989 to forcibly eliminate that possibility for the 21st century Crisis (the next 4T after WW2 which is the current crisis).

American and European Boomer globalists take note, if you boomers take us into war with Russia or China without the constitutional prerequisites/or make decisions that would provoke China or Russia into attacking knowing full well that would be the likely result of that decision. The Boomer globalist would not be rewarded for those actions even if we win the war, you guys would by kicked out by force as soon as the war is over, and an imperial government in which commanders would have freedom to use gloves off methods would be in power and there would be nothing the boomer globalists could do about it as they would be either dead or in exile. The Imperial government may not get in there early enough to keep the boomers from betting the west in the name patheticness such as globalism and helping "foreign others" but we will ensure that the historical legacy of the Name of "Establishment Boomer" has such infamy and as much infamy as the name of Benedict Arnold. That would be the epitaph of the globalist "establishment".

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 638
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:40 am

CH86 wrote:
John wrote:
FishbellykanakaDude wrote:> The Chinese are almost there now. Not quite, but really really
> close. The real signal that the oil is on the floor, ready to be
> slipped on, is when some Chinese behavior causes the fractious
> parties in the west to choose between "them or us" instead of
> fighting amongst themselves about pronouns and Patreon.
> ...
> So, I'm quite content, personally, to appreciate the amusing and
> comforting internal bickering of the identity based political
> groups within our various societies, as their little "wars" mean
> "the world ain't ripe yet".


The Chinese are definitely "there" now. One thing that's clear from
studying Chinese history is that they don't really want war with the
US -- after all, we saved their butt in WW II, and several times
before that, including in the aftermath of WW I -- but they really
want war vs Japan. But of course they know that war with Japan means
war with the US.

The equivalent of the Marco Polo Bridge incident, which launched WW II
in Asia, could happen at any time. China is being extremely
belligerent in the East China Sea around the Senkaku Islands, and that
could easily trigger a war on any day. The same could be said about
the Taiwan Strait. The world is definitely ripe.

Americans were just as politically divided in the late 1930s as they
are today, even after the war in Europe had started. What united
Americans behind FDR were the "regeneracy events" -- Pearl Harbor and
the Bataan Death March.


You site senkaku or taiwan causing a war, when those areas are much more regulated than the flashpoints that would actually cause a war involving china, which you didn't even mention. Notably Doklam and the Sino-Vietnamese border. But Doklam flaring up would cause a war between China and India, that would likely involve Pakistan and eventually Russia, but not the US since we have no tangible interests there. Senkakus in fact have quieted down significantly in recent years with China and Japan signing a semi-long term trade pact last year due to Trump's trade war. Tsai is unlikely to declare independence because her party lost the legislative elections in Taiwan last year precisely over that issue thus she does not currently have the support necessary to do so. Then there is still the threat of Putin's Russia in addition to China.

When the crisis war takes place it is still up in air that China and Not Russia would be the main adversary, Moreover the Chinese still have not fully "nativized" military production so that their military uses entirely Chinese made equipment, Also Russia and Iran are still under anti-western regimes and command powerful war machines as well. Even IF the war is one in which China is the primary enemy it is increasingly unlikely that the west would be lead through the war by the people you guys want to be leading the western nations because those groups are clearly unpopular with the citizenry of the west. Their demonstrated incompetence in the last several non-crisis wars, most notably the failure by the elite due to incompetence and deliberately inept decisions, to maintain support as in the war on terror even though that war started with terrorist mass casualty attacks on civilian targets no less, the level of incompetence needed to fritter away popular support for war against the perpetrators is simply stunning. This has resulting in the US government and other western governments taking a major legitimacy hit, this well as the fact that the globalists already lead the west in the last Crisis war (WW2), given the fact that it is rare for the same elite to lead two crisis wars in a row, as there is usually an elite turnover prior to the start of the new crisis war.

Regarding a possible liberalization of Russia and Iran, such is unlikely since the Russian and Iranian equivalents of Neoliberals/globalists are decidedly unpopular in those two countries, Contrary to the wishes and wants of Globalist Ideologues like yourself, the Russians do not want Kasparov in the Kremlin, Nor do the Mass of the Iranians want the Shah back. A regime Change that brings in governments find democratic commonality with the west, and that would ally with the west against China in principle and action, is therefore unlikely.

The Wilsonian/Macarthurite/Macarthyite/NeoLiberal/Neocon/Liberal-Democracy/Globalist conglomerate is unlikely to be the "4T order defining group" during this 4Ts crisis war because that coalition is not and would not be a "new societal order" nor would that even represent the victory of the "awakening Ideals" either. This is because the Wilsonian/Macarthurite/Macarthyite/NeoLiberal/Neocon/Liberal-Democracy/Globalist already existed in the post-war years at the end of the 1940s/early 1950s, it predates the boomer awakening, such therefore would not be a "new order" that is the "old order". Even making the case that such would be the culmination of the boomer awakening ideals fails to hold water since the Boomer Awakening started off as a clear rebellion AGAINST the Wilsonian/Macarthurite/Macarthyite/NeoLiberal/Neocon/Liberal-Democracy/Globalist order.

On a separate but related note: it is Ironic that you mention last saeculum's democratic China, and the Marco polo bridge incident which started the main 4T war Proper for them. Lets talk about Pre-WW2 China, WW2 China and the generational development of Post-WW2 China Globalists and anti-activist/Pro-globalist/establishment Boomers take note. The Chinese "nationalists" were able to maintain and get their neoliberal China by Japan's surrender in 1945. But remember what happened to them afterwards, the Chinese People didn't like being press-ganged into fighting for western Liberalism, they supported the KMT in the 1920s because they wanted the foreign concessions and missionaries GONE. But they did not like the KMT government taking the Chinese people into war standard-bearing liberal principles without the consent of the citizenry: As a result, Once the war was over the Chinese people rose up against the KMT and forcibly put a government along the lines of what they had always wanted by 1949/1950. The globalists/equivalents were kicked out the country post-ww2. The Nomads when later on 20 to 40 years later were confronted by a new prophet generation eventually crushed the 2T precisely because the Chinese civic generation and surviving Nomads decided one way or another their next crisis would not be because of weakness of a weak globalist government like the previous WW2 crisis ended up being due to a tyrannical prophet generation. As a result they took the decision in 1989 to forcibly eliminate that possibility for the 21st century Crisis (the next 4T after WW2 which is the current crisis).

American and European Boomer globalists take note, if you boomers take us into war with Russia or China without the constitutional prerequisites/or make decisions that would provoke China or Russia into attacking knowing full well that would be the likely result of that decision. The Boomer globalist would not be rewarded for those actions even if we win the war, you guys would by kicked out by force as soon as the war is over, and an imperial government in which commanders would have freedom to use gloves off methods would be in power and there would be nothing the boomer globalists could do about it as they would be either dead or in exile. The Imperial government may not get in there early enough to keep the boomers from betting the west in the name patheticness such as globalism and helping "foreign others" but we will ensure that the historical legacy of the Name of "Establishment Boomer" has such infamy and as much infamy as the name of Benedict Arnold. That would be the epitaph of the globalist "establishment".


You know, dude, I REALLY wish you'd write up a coherent "treatise" as to how you see things going, as you SOUND fascinating pouring out verbiage like you did above!

It SEEMS like you're making some sort of sense, but it also seems like that "dream talk" that you remember hearing while dreaming that made sense in the dream but went to "mush" when you woke up.

We (well, I) want more but more coherent thoughts from you, dude. Thanks in advance.

..and what's with the "english as a second language" use of english in the writings above? Where are you from?


CH86
Posts: 302
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby CH86 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:42 pm

Once again I'm Condemned as a "Russian Troll" for stating an opinion that is contrary to globalist/neoliberal orthodoxy. I Support the "Russian Method" of diplomacy and military policy as that has had demonstrated results that generally have been superior to the establishment "American method". How Come the Russians get along even with nation you would think would be bitter enemies like Russia; Such as China today, the Islamist Radical Bloc Both During the cold war and post-cold war and with Japan during WW2 (Russia did have to fight a border war with the Japanese in the late 1930s but were able to coexist with Japan without such nonsense as regime change/Mind control). Fishdude In earlier posts you eluded to my lack of concern about the "suffering of innocents" in Syria, in Burma, in Xinjiang and elsewhere. But that is current US policy's main problem these days, The Geopolitical Clashes with China and Russia would be far less severe if the Chinese government and the Russian Government didn't have to worry about US efforts to subvert their governments and/or use the UN to forcibly influence them to turn an eye toward "the suffering of innocent people" something that Putin and Xi DO NOT WANT TO DO. My Proposed fourth turning resolution is that the US rebuild and Revamp Military Power and Reorient Foreign Policy but that this New revamped Military Power would be Denuded/Cleansed of Concern about the "Suffering of Innocents" particularly those of the third world. The Showdown with Russia and China would be then purely about the "pecking-order" and competing spheres of influence.

Remember the WW2/Chinese civil war example I mentioned earlier: Chiang Kai-shek was the grey champion during the war with Japan itself, but afterwards he was NOT recorded in history by the Chinese people as their standard-bearer, the citizens did NOT record his preferred narrative of Chiang Kai-shek being the standard bearer of Chinese freedom against Japan; a Chinese Churchill you could say, that was NOT what ended up happening. What ended up happening was that Chiang was regarded as a fool who made China look weak. The Chinese people embraced Mao's faction instead and they systematically Cleansed their Country's body-politic of anything that resembled Chiang's values. They Even Moved the Capital back to the old Manchu capital of Beijing even though hundreds of thousands had died at Nanking during the war, that's how much they hated the neoliberals Post-war.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 638
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:21 pm

CH86 wrote:...
I Support the "Russian Method" of diplomacy and military policy as that has had demonstrated results that generally have been superior to the establishment "American method".

How Come the Russians get along even with nation you would think would be bitter enemies like Russia; Such as China today, the Islamist Radical Bloc Both During the cold war and post-cold war and with Japan during WW2 ..?

Fishdude In earlier posts you eluded to my lack of concern about the "suffering of innocents" in Syria, in Burma, in Xinjiang and elsewhere. But that is current US policy's main problem these days, The Geopolitical Clashes with China and Russia would be far less severe if the Chinese government and the Russian Government didn't have to worry about US efforts to subvert their governments and/or use the UN to forcibly influence them to turn an eye toward "the suffering of innocent people" something that Putin and Xi DO NOT WANT TO DO.

My Proposed fourth turning resolution is that the US rebuild and Revamp Military Power and Reorient Foreign Policy but that this New revamped Military Power would be Denuded/Cleansed of Concern about the "Suffering of Innocents" particularly those of the third world.

The Showdown with Russia and China would be then purely about the "pecking-order" and competing spheres of influence.

...


Please describe the "Russian Method" of diplomacy and military policy. Thanks.

I absolutely agree with the idea that nations should deal with each other according to Realpolitik principles.

But there is no way to divorce the actions of the leaders of a nation from the "philosophy" of that nation's people (in the aggregate).

When leaders act against the principles of their people, they are no longer "of those people", and become internal aliens with the power (for a while, at any rate) to hold power by force.

Nations lead by aliens initiate any number of "unintended consequences" that ultimately result in the suffering of "the people", societal chaos, and the overthrow of the leaders.

Each nation has (and has a God given ACTUAL right to) it's own "philosophy" (world view). And every person within that nation has a right to their own philosophy. And every person has a right to try to influence the nation's people to act according to their personal philosophy, and try to be "a leader", or "the leader" of their nation.

But aliens, with alien philosophies, leading nations is a bad thing.

I'm not personally against the necessary imposition of suffering on the innocent, but my definition of "necessary" is very constraining on those who would find it easy to do so.

I believe you, CH, are of an alien philosophy to the US, and most of the "west", as to the imposition of suffering on the innocent, and following your suggestions would initiate massive unnecessary suffering, and a revolution and counterrevolution within the US, and by extension within the west.

Luckily, we'll never have to worry about that, as you're not convincing to nearly enough people to cause such a chain reaction.

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby Tom Mazanec » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:41 pm

I'm writing a book on China, and I wrote about this phenomenon. The
following is from the current draft:

Any idea when the book will come out?
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

John
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby John » Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:08 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote:> I'm writing a book on China, and I wrote about this
> phenomenon. The following is from the current draft:

> Any idea when the book will come out?


Originally, the book was going to be focused on China's claims to the
South China Sea. I was expecting to find some kind of massive
collection of evidence supporting China's claims. As I got into it,
it became quickly clear that China has absolutely no historical claim
to the South China Sea. I mean -- ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. The whole
thing is a hoax.

But "in for a penny, in for a pound," I started focusing on China's
"century of humiliation," and the relationship between China and
Japan. What's really remarkable is that after the 1860s Japan quickly
became a "developed" country and even a "western" country to some
extent, not counting its disastrous imperialism and militarism. But
China since the 1860s is just as disastrously governed today as it was
then. This whole policy of "Sincization" of religion is a disaster,
and locking up and torturing and raping a million Uighurs in
order to make them compliant Han Chinese is one of the stupidest
policies of any country in the history of the world.

So I've been trying to figure out how China got to this pathetic
point, and why the hard-working industrious Chinese people are always
led by disastrous idiots, and it's taken me a lot longer than just the
South China Sea issue.

I do have the current draft of the book online:

http://generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww20 ... .gx113.htm

If you read it, just keep in mind that there's a lot that needs
rewriting, and there are rants that need to be removed.

If you have any corrections, let me know.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 638
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:33 pm

John wrote:...

If you have any corrections, let me know.


You might want to refer to Turkic tribes, instead of Turkish tribes, when they are mentioned.

The central asians don't much ken to being called "Turkish", while the Turks don't mind ANYONE being called Turkic (as they think that EVERYONE on the planet was at one point or another "Turkic"),.. though I'd ask around about that, so don't take my word for it.

:)

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 638
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:54 pm

John wrote:... So I've been trying to figure out how China got to this pathetic
point, and why the hard-working industrious Chinese people are always
led by disastrous idiots, ...


The leaders of China have always been "aliens".

It's a classic case of the Inferiority/Superiority complex.

They "know" (via tradition) that the people, per se, are great (meaning numerous, or "heavy") and therefore "Superior", but that they need a "pointed" leader, or a leader of extremely dense power to properly "use" the diffuse, and therefore "Inferior", masses of the people. Where in the "Chinese Filial Mindset" do you find "pointed leaders"?

China needs an "Other", an alien, to wield it's power.

China has never been very good at producing "aliens". And importing aliens as leaders is "problematic".

The interesting thing to me is that one COULD see Xi (Winnie the Pooh) as really quite "alien" from the point of view of the Chinese masses.

He appears as an admirable "powerful psychopath" that "conquered" China's government from "out of nowhere/heaven/the_west", who nonetheless does "look" Chinese (as did the conquering Turkic invaders throughout Chinese history), and is therefore fit to "wield China".

The question is really why it is that these leaders tend to be idiots!?

I think it's because they don't understand the reasons that their successful "invader leaders" from the past bothered conquering China in the first place.

Why did the Turkic invaders want China?

"China" is a resource to be used, and not a "country" to be "from".

..once their erstwhile successful rulers become "Chinese" the "inferiority" of the Chinese masses starts to creep into the thinking of those leaders, and they start to seek out the next "alien" to take the reins and do what they increasingly can't bring themselves to do to make their country prosperous.

The natural progression of "nationality" is for successful leaders to devolve as many successful methods of "being prosperous" to "the people" as possible, while the leaders claim for themselves only the "connection to heaven/God/National_Identity" sufficient to not appear utterly superfluous.

But the Chinese leader can't unhand the secrets of power, because the masses need him to be an "alien" delivering success/prosperity to them, and CERTAINLY not TEACHING them (aka institutionally allowing them) to be prosperous.

..therefore, increasingly concentrating power is used to counter the ill effects of increasingly concentrating power, as NO ONE is motivated to distribute power because it is simply "Unchinese"!

And that vicious cycle grinds the nation into a weakness that invites conquest and "humiliation".



The "solution"? Break China into the various "republics" that it's regions actually should be.

Obvious, but we'll have to wait at least two (2) 4-generation cycles (176-ish years) before that's even remotely plausible.


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