North Korea

[Amon]

And that is where the real threat lies here:
1) Regional problems, although South Korean President Lee Myung-bak claims this isn't the primary issue, and
2) Rogue states and terrorist groups that would buy the nuclear weapons technology from North Korea (which Myung-bak says is the real problem).

US Says North Korean Nuclear Test Smaller Than First Believed
The nuclear test on May 25 is now reported to have only yielded a few kilotons of explosive power, according to U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair - this is only a fraction of what Russia's Defense Ministry had estimated for the underground explosion.

The question is what happens when their power is more refined, and the aforementioned rogue states/terrorists start buying that power from the North Koreans...

[Amon]

Heh. Since I seem to be the only one paying attention to North Korea atm, I should post some sort of update:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j8XaBgDxfRpc7DtpfttKYAPqF-2g

SEOUL (AFP) — North Korea has accused US President Barack Obama of plotting a nuclear war on the communist nation by reaffirming a US assurance of security for South Korea, the North's state media said.

In a first official response to last week's US-South Korean summit, the state-run weekly Tongil Sinbo said in its Saturday edition Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak "are trying to ignite a nuclear war".

"The US-touted provision of 'extended deterrence, including a nuclear umbrella' (for South Korea) is nothing but 'a nuclear war plan,'" Tongil Sinbo said.

It said it wasn't a coincidence that the United States has brought "nuclear equipment into South Korea and its surroundings and staged massive war drills every day to look for a chance to invade North Korea."

Pyongyang has created weeks of tension by conducting a second nuclear test and test-firing missiles.

At a summit with Lee in Washington Wednesday, Obama warned that North Korea is a "grave threat" and vowed to defend South Korea.

A Seoul presidential official told Yonhap news agency Lee would seek a written US commitment to provide a nuclear "umbrella" for Seoul as part of "extended deterrence" against Pyongyang.

North Korea detonated its second nuclear device on May 25, following the first one in 2006. It also went ahead with what Washington said was a disguised test of a long-range missile in April.

The United Nations Security Council in response agreed to tighter cargo inspections, a stricter arms embargo and new targeted financial curbs to choke off revenue for the North's nuclear and missile sectors.

In response Pyongyang has vowed to build more nuclear bombs and start enriching uranium for a new atomic weapons program.

Some analysts say the sabre-rattling is part of an attempt by 67-year-old ailing North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Il, to bolster a succession plan involving his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un.

I want to laugh at how ridiculous their beliefs are. U.S. conspiring to start a nuclear war against North Korea? What REASON do we have to do such a thing? If North Korea falls victim, it's because they pushed the button first and someone else wiped them out in their panic. Understanding of the subject matter for Generational Dynamics isn't required to realize this.

[gerald]

Ah yes, old maybe near death and maybe crazy or paranoid, wanting to go out in style.
Logic does not count with these kinds of people. In a nonpolitical arena I have seen an old Chicago real estate developer in his 70's.
pool all of his assets, monetary and other wise, convince lenders to loan him as much as possible, to build the largest apartment building in the city and not at the best time.
Result, the building was completed he died, and the lenders had to fight amongst them selves as to how to get some of there money back on a completed, unoccupied apartment building, they took a big hit. He probably died laughing.

[gerald]

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.

Looks like fearless leader wants to go out in style

[John]

I've followed North Korea pretty closely in the past, though not
recently. It always appears to me that they do things whose only
motivation is to stay in power and bring in money. Starting a war
would not give them either power or money, and they know it. So
there's no strategic reason for them to launch a missile at Tokyo or
Honolulu.

Thus, the only reason they'd do something like that is if something
causes them to panic. However, something like that can't be
predicted.

John

[Amon]

Idk whether to place this here or in the South Korea thread, but the South Korea thread doesn't seem fitting because of why it was made.

Looks like we have a new incident:

South Korean navy ship sinks, North link played down - Reuters

The current thinking: Flock of birds. Initial media reports were a North Korean torpedo, though. So I'm not sure how this factors into anything, but it seemed like a significant panic.

[thomasglee]

Idk whether to place this here or in the South Korea thread, but the South Korea thread doesn't seem fitting because of why it was made.

Looks like we have a new incident:

South Korean navy ship sinks, North link played down - Reuters

The current thinking: Flock of birds. Initial media reports were a North Korean torpedo, though. So I'm not sure how this factors into anything, but it seemed like a significant panic.

Of course they're going to play down the north's involvement as they don't want things to escalate. I, myself, believe it was probably a torpedo attack, but the only thing that amazes me is that the ROK Navy's countermeasures didn't pick it up. Either all the billions of $$ they've put into their naval program has failed, or the north has some really sophisticated stuff... which I doubt or if not a torpedo, they may have hit a free floating mine deployed by north Korea.

Some reports say, "it sank four hours after taking on water". If that's the case, how could there be any loss of life? Four hours would have been more than enough time to evacuate the ship.

Naval confrontation is not that unusual in the area in which this incident occurred. However, it usually only results in light damage to one side or another and some casualties. IF this truly was a north Korean attack and 50 or so ROK Navy personnel are killed, this is a major incident that could, but probably won't, escalate. If one is understanding of the region, they'll know that neither the north nor the south want war and neither are in a position to wage it (politically, it would not be popular on either side of the DMZ).

[jannypan]

It's hard to get a feel for what's going in North Korea due to the extreme repressive policies of the Kim regime, but they do seem to be lacking the urgency of many other 4T countries. Understand that in a crisis, the situation can change dramatically over a short period of time.

[thomasglee]

It's hard to get a feel for what's going in North Korea due to the extreme repressive policies of the Kim regime, but they do seem to be lacking the urgency of many other 4T countries. Understand that in a crisis, the situation can change dramatically over a short period of time.

I find that there are several well maintained websites/blogs on north Korea. Onefreekorea.us is a good place to start. They link to several other good sites too.

[Laustim]

Here is a recent picture, as in North Korea to change during the same stay. "Same" is the constant desire of people to reveal the truth to get to North Korea. What unfolds is a story in the press organized activity that develops to get out.